Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Janat: @Janat_H1
Battlefield Update
Ukraine is waiting for planned deliveries of weapons from partners. The enemy continues mindless attacks with heavy losses.
Svatove-Kreminna
Russia’s biggest concern was that UA would cut the supply line. RU managed to accumulate more troops (mostly recruits) and counterattacked. UA retreated to more advantageous defense positions awaiting weapon supplies.
The recruits’ advantage is their quantity, not quality. The enemy suffers heavy losses. The ratio is 6.5 RU to 1 UA soldier.
Shipilivka – Bilohorivka
A series of unsuccessful RU attacks from NE with heavy losses.
Bakhmut
RU shifted the action from NE to mostly E and SE trying to get to Bakhmut from the south.
Horlivka – Maryinka
Both sides exchange shelling and attempt sorties.
Zaporizhye
Continued shelling and drone attacks with no action on the ground.
Kherson
Journalists-collaborators were killed during yesterday’s shelling of the Antonovsky Bridge. The UA command stated that civilians do not come under such fire since it is carried out during curfew.
The situation in Kherson: despite the acknowledgment of difficulties from the RU military command and propaganda, RU continues to transfer troops to the right-bank bridgehead with unclear goals. These troops consist of regular military and mobilized personnel.
Is it some kind of trap for UA? Unlikely, as AF of UA cannot be lured into a trap by Russian statements. UA relies on its dependable intelligence data instead.
Nova Kakhovka dam is possibly mined by the RU military. There’s no 100% assurance it is so. If it were blown up, flooding could be more extensive than predicted earlier; both civilians and RU army would be affected.
Most importantly, the surge would demolish RU pontoon bridges which RU uses for supplies. This would guarantee the right-bank bridgehead is completely cut off from all possible supplies.
Information about mining could be used just as blackmail. RU seems to use this tactic a lot in the war: Chernobyl, Zaporizhye NP, and now NK dam.
Belarus
Belarus (BY) is preparing for an escalation of the conflict, accumulating ground forces, aviation, etc. UA is watchful and ready. Aresovych is skeptical BY is battle-ready at present. UA has been training its forces for weeks near BY border.
Anti-drone defense
Iranian drones can act as a martyr’s belt to damage civilian infrastructure. They were purchased by RF specifically to target such objects. Arestovych declined to comment on the readiness of the anti-drone defense of Ukraine: it is not subject to publicity.
From official sources: UA received from Germany the first radar systems IRIS-T and three systems TRML-4D to be delivered in the next months. Such systems detect and track up to 1500 various air targets within a 250-km radius simultaneously and ensure more precise responses.
UA will eventually find the solution to the Iranian drone attack. What can Russia do next? Iranian missiles do not change the present situation: RU has been shelling UA with missiles for months.
Elon Musk’s Twitter Saga
Musk is seeking to find a balance between the polar positions of his worldview. As a businessman, he’s trying to do so with profit and minimal cost.
Compensation
EU is discussing the legal transfer of frozen RU assets to UA. The western model of UA victory has 4 points:
– Complete withdrawal or destruction of RU troops
– Reparations
– Prosecution of war criminals
– Removal of Putin from power
Compensation for the damage caused to UA is part of this model and must be done by court decision.
Oil Prices
The USA intends to achieve a price ceiling for Russian oil at $60 per barrel. This exceeds the cost by 2 times and replenishes the RU budget. But this will help avoid market volatility which could be created by RU unilaterally or in coalition with its allies, like Iran.
Sanctions
The UA government expanded anti-Russian personal sanctions to 3,600 people, which cause more and more discontent among Russian oligarchs. This list becomes a foundation for Western sanctions.
Bayraktar
Turkish bayraktars successfully work for Ukraine’s victory despite rumors of being destroyed. Yermak, Head of President’s Office, visited the Bayraktar plant last month. UA avoids giving too much attention to Bayraktar.
International Legion
American establishment fighting in the Armed Forces of Ukraine: 28-year-old John Kennedy, the great-nephew of US President John F. Kennedy, secretly fought in the UA International Legion. Other iconic representatives of Latin American and SE Asian countries have fought for UA. International Legion has 1000s of troops that regularly rotate.
Video fragment with the future of propagandists and the military-political leadership of the RF. They fear being put against the wall and executed.
Next stream is October 22.
