Update from Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov – 30 August

Posted on 30 August 2022



Oleg Zhdanov, the Ukrainian military expert, with his battlefield and military-political situation update on 30 August 2022. Note the information about activities in the south of Ukraine are limited mostly to official Ukrainian statements.

Kyiv time of the broadcast: 19:00.

Adversary continues efforts to establish full control over Donetsk Oblast, and hold control over parts of Kherson, Zaporizhye and Mykolaiv Oblasts. 

Volyn-Polesye (Belarus – North)

The situation has not drastically changed. Belarusian units continue reinforcing defence in Homel and Brest regions. Missile attack threat remains.

Northern direction

Separate detachments of the Western Military District remain in border areas of Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts, launching strikes from gun artillery at Sumy and Chernihiv. Carried out air recon.

Slobozhan direction

Adversary continues reinforcing held positions.

Kharkiv direction

Shelling from tanks, gun and missile artillery. Enemy carries out aviation strikes and air recon. Russians carried out an assault to improve tactical position near Udy, which resulted in them retreating with losses.

Ukrainian General Staff reports changes in tactics of Russian forces in this direction who attempted assault operations along the complete frontline line. This is likely related to yesterday’s movements in the South of Ukraine, a distraction.

Sloviansk direction

Shelling from gun and missile artillery. Enemy air recon near Bohorodichnoye, an enemy UAV was taken down. Also attempted assault towards Shnurky, unsuccessfully.

Kramatorsk direction

More or less quiet today, no active operations by the enemy apart from artillery exchanges.

Bakhmut direction

Shelling from gun and missile artillery. One aviation strike. Attempted assaults towards Zaytsevo, Shumy and Kadema. Appears that control over Kadema might be going to Russians and back to Ukrainians, unconfirmed for now.

Avdiivka direction

Shelling along the whole direction, with Russian assaults towards Maryinka and Novomikhaylovka. Recon by fire towards Opytnoe by the enemy.

Novopavloskoye-Zaporizhye direction

No major changes here, Russians did not conduct offensive operations. No aviation strikes, only artillery exchanges.

Yuzhniy Bug (Kherson) direction

Ukrainian GS reports artillery strikes across whole section (20+ settlements), assaulted near Potyomkino. 

Oleg Zhdanov believes situation in this direction involves counter-offensive activities rather than “counter-offensive”. As of today, there is information that Sukhoy Stavok near Belagorka is under Ukrainian control. 

Quoting ISW, we also know that Russians themselves announced Ukrainian counter-offensive. Ukrainian officials said they broke through the first line of defence in unspecified areas in Kherson Oblast and used the advantage of HIMARS strikes over the past several weeks which resulted in weakening of the whole Russian group on the right bank of Dnieper.

Ukrainian officials did not confirm liberation of any areas but Russian sources state several settlements north and west of Kherson were liberated. In Kherson, machine gun fire and explosions were noticed. As of now it is only reasonable to refer to information of the Ukrainian General Staff.

The Black Sea

No changes in the area, Kalibr carries on duty can launch up to 28 missiles. 

City shelling by and against Ukraine

Massive shelling of Mykolaiv resulting in casualties among civilian population – 2 dead and around 20 wounded.

Kryvyi Rih – explosions. Zaporzhzhiya – explosions. Same for Sumy and Kharkiv, also day shelling in Kharkiv with 5 dead and 9 wounded as a result of enemy strikes.

Nikopol and Sloviansk likewise were shelled. 

Air sirens are back in Ukraine after a day pause, but not everywhere.

Ukrainian strikes included: Melitopol base; Kherson military unit with ammo; Berdyansk – large fire in the city. Antonovsky bridge was hit at least twice. Additional strikes at pontoon bridges to prevent heavy weaponry replenishment. Also Kakhovka bridge was hit. This is with aim to completely disable these bridges and prevent Russians resupplying. There are more crossings in other areas that were hit. Also strikes in Belgorod which lead to resident fleeing the city, the situation is close to panic.

Crimean bridge completely closed off from entry to Crimea, only open for exiting. Ukraine announced humanitarian corridors for those fleeing Crimea, so there is no need to worry as residents could enter mainland Ukraine for the period of hostilities during liberation of Crimea.

Military-political situation

  • We have a date for Rammstein IV – this will happen on 8 September in NATO base in Germany, where it was held originally. All representatives will be personally present at the summit. Lloyd Austin will personally lead the summit.
  • Internal news – Ukraine is asking Kharkiv and Chuhuev areas to evacuate, possible forced evacuation to prevent deaths from shelling. Up to 300,000 people might be moved. It’s a good time to move now while it’s still warm.
  • IAEA is unable to reach ZNPP due to Russian shelling. It’s a last change for Russians, after the arrival there will be no opportunity to continue with this terror, so they are taking what they can.
  • More Ukrainian news – in Mariupol, the first hunger strike occurred. Russia completely stopped humanitarian aid for the local population. International Red Cross is carrying out this function, but their resource is very scarce. 
  • Lithuania built a wall with Belarus – 5 meters tall with barbwire, over 500 km long, further isolating the country from the rest of the world.
  • Slovakia said farewells to MiG-29’s which will join Ukrainian Air Force shortly.
  • Czech delegation arrived in Kyiv to discuss cooperation, military aid and so on. Another guest in the welcoming capital of Ukraine.
  • Washington Post claimed Russia kept destroying wooden HIMARS copies. This is why Russia launched missiles including Kalibr at these dummies.

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