Oleg Zhdanov, the Ukrainian military expert, with his battlefield and military-political situation update on 24 August 2022. The update took place at 16:00 Kyiv time (2PM BST).

Battlefield overview

The enemy continues attempts to establish full control over Donetsk Oblast and hold taken territories in Kherson, parts of Kharkiv, Zaporizhye and Mykolaiv Oblasts, and also replenish units that took losses. This tells us that the enemy is truly exhausted and we are entering a stage where replenishment of Russian troops is not enough to cover casualties along the whole frontline.

Continued aviation strikes across the whole territory of Ukraine. Since last night, these come in waves with 2-3 hours between them. No mass strikes yet, but the day is not over, so it’s important to stay put. 

Volyn-Polesye (Belarus – North) direction

No major changes, Belarusian forces continue reinforcing the border of the state (some missiles were launched from Belarus later: note).

Northern direction

The adversary continues keeping separate units of the Western Military District at the border areas of Kursk and Bryansk Oblasts; conducts shelling of Ukrainian territory to lock up defending forces. Adversary troop numbers are stable and not changing, therefore accumulations isn’t taking place.

Slobozhan direction

Positional fights and artillery exchanges, each side attempts to hold onto their positions, activity decreased however.

Kharkiv direction

Gun and missile strikes, aviation strikes, air reconnaissance by the adversary.

Sloviansk direction

Artillery shelling, air recon attempts at Bogorodichnoye resulted in enemy fleeing.

Donetsk direction

This is the most active and difficult direction. The adversary continues assaulting at Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions. Yet the frontline is stabilising, and no Russian attempts to advance bring results. The enemy has to retreat instead, with losses.

Kramatorsk direction

Gun and missile shelling, air reconnaissance, but no active firefights.

Bakhmut direction

Artillery shelling, the enemy assaulted towards Bakhmutskoye and Kademy, without success.

Avdiivka direction

Artillery shelling, aviation strikes, the adversary advanced towards Pesky and Nivelskoye, unsuccessfully.

Novopavloskoye direction

Weak artillery shelling of Ukrainian positions, and positional firefights.

Zaporizhye direction

Artillery and aviation strikes, air recon of Ukrainian positions.

Yuzhniy Bug (Pivdenniy Bug) direction

Positional fights along the whole frontline. Shelling, and artillery and aviation skirmishes. Ukrainian aviation is very active in this direction. The Russian attempts to break through to Mykolaiv through Blagotatnoye was unsuccessful, the frontline has stabilised, the enemy is not attacking anymore. We will soon find out where exactly the demarkation line is. 

The Black Sea

The Kalibr missile carrier group has reduced to 4 vessels (from 5 yesterday). This is one submarine and three ships. Combined launch might be 28 missiles. They are ready to strike, but as of now no strikes were registered. 

City shelling by and against Ukraine

Air sirens coming in waves throughout Ukraine. Kharkiv was shelled multiple times since yesterday. Dnipro, Mykolaiv Oblast, Nikopol, Sumy Oblast, Poltava Oblast – Mirgorod, Cherkassy Oblast. Russians increased attempts of terrorising the population by spreading fake messages of placing bombs in many shops. These premises are being checked while security services are looking for those who make calls. 

Russians don’t know what to do with the ZNPP.  Yesterday they brought vehicles and personnel in there. Today they shelled the thermal NPP which contains coal storage, dust from which can be dangerous for health. But they need the NPP intact to be used for energy, so they are lost with their options.

Ukraine struck an ammo depot at Tokmak which is still detonating. Also, today in Sevastopol the air defence was operating, unclear if anything was taken down. In Belgorod, another ammo cache is burning: the governor of the region said it was due to a “lens effect”, which is impossible – ammo does not detonate without an explosion or very high temperature fire. 

Military-political situation

• “Crimean platform” summit might have played a role in the lack of a mass missile strike in Ukraine – no rockets landed in Kyiv. Russia might not risk a strike while over 60 countries are taking part in the summit, as this could become the main topic of the summit. 

• Main topic of the summit is demilitarisation and de-occupation of Crimea. President Zelenskiy said Ukraine will liberate Crimea even without consulting with partner countries. This says about serious intentions to restore sovereignty and integrity of the state.

• Additionally, Polish president promoted removing Nordstream 2. Such a statement has good perspectives, since as soon as Finland and Sweden enter NATO the Baltic Sea will become NATO internal sea, and destroying Nordstream 2 becomes possible. 

• Germany’s Olaf Scholz announced a new package of military aid to Ukraine, including air defence IRIS-T, though majority will arrive next yet; missile systems but not clear which; “tons of ammunitions”. As it appears, this aid will be delivered together with Canada. All these are big names indicating that summit is a strong platform to fight the Russian occupation. 

• Also, Canada announced a new sanctions package not only including Russian citizens responsible for preparing for the war, but also companies that help with war. 

• Jens Stoltenberg also said NATO is ready to give Ukraine all needed aid to rearm it with NATO standards.

• All of this is just a tip of the iceberg, more results will follow soon.

• Sweden also announced weapon and vehicles aid to Ukraine. 

• Other news, Belarusian Lukashenka cynically congratulated Ukraine with independence day, meanwhile being a platform for the Russian invasion. This won’t help him to avoid the international tribunal along with putin. This is all considering that him and his officers promised to not take part in the war. 

• Donetsk strike details revealed – this could have been a false flag operation to justify decision making centres strikes of Ukraine. Ukraine did not carry out this strike, Ukraine only strikes weapon caches and personnel. Likely the FSB provocation.

• Another news, Russia’s defence minister Shoygu said about slowing of the pace of the Special Military Operation. They finally figured they stalled and admitted they failed to conquer Ukraine. They say they want to avoid casualties among civilians, which is ridiculous after massacres in Bucha and many other places. Possibly, they might start preparing Russians for the fact that the war will be lost. 

• More news, Turkey’s Erdogan said Crimea must be returned to Ukraine, and today his representative said return of Crimea is a basis for any dialogue between Russia and Ukraine. 

• $3 billion aid package by US should be announced today. 

• Russia is looking for funds to cover a 6 trillion ruble deficit in their budget – are the profits from energy resources decreasing, or is this corruption?