Oleg Zhdanov, the Ukrainian military expert, with his battlefield and military-political situation on 14 August 2022.
Battlefield update for 14 August, Kyiv time – noon.
Russian forces activated offensive operations in a number of directions, including the “sleeping” direction such as Zaporizhye, and aviation reconnaissance in search of weak points in the Ukrainian defence. Continued strikes at command points, weapon caches, personnel groups of the adversary along the whole depth of the occupied territories.
Volyn-Polesye direction (Belarus – North)
No major changes. Northern direction sees rotation of troops of the Western Military District located along the border, which are shelling Ukrainian territory.
Artillery and aviation strikes, high intensity of air reconnaissance. The adversary attempted reconnaissance by fire at Pytomnyk, with no success, the attack was repelled, adversary retreated to initial positions.
Adversary is taking measures to increase supply of their troops and logistics and replenishment of losses. This cannot be interfered with by Ukraine as the supply comes directly from the RF. Yet this says Ukraine is dealing quite serious damage and the adversary must replenish forces and improve logistics located in this Kharkiv direction. All Russian stockpiles are now outside of Ukraine.
Shelling. The adversary attempted breaking through the defence at Doliny. These are repeated attacks. As the General Staff of Ukraine said, these are “insane assaults” – likely the troops are sent in without vehicle support.
Russian artillery, MLRS and tank shelling to discover Ukrainian supply lines and infrastructure objects. Air reconnaissance.
Aviation strikes. Adversary attempted to assault Serebryanka, retreated after a fight. Attempted to improve tactical position at Spornoye, but no success, retreated. Ivanovo-Darievka – heavy fights continue, unclear how these might end.
Artillery and aviation strikes. Active air reconnaissance by the enemy. Attempts of reconnaissance by fire in Soledar, unsuccessfully, adversary retreated. Enemy assault operation at Zaytsevo, unsuccessful, fights continue.
Very hot location. Artillery and aviation strikes. The enemy conducts air recon. Assault operations by adversary towards Krasnoborovka and Pesky. No success, retreated. Near Pervomayskoye fights continue. In Pesky, very difficult situation for Ukraine, not enough artillery, fighters ask for more fire support. The settlement is mainly under control of Ukraine however.
Novopavloskoye, Zaporizhye direction
Artillery and aviation strikes along the whole frontline. Adversary attempted recon by fire near Perechistovka, but retreated after fire response. Now conducts assault at Pavlovka, fights continue. EW complexes are active in the area.
Yuzhniy Bug (Pivdenniy Bug) direction
Main efforts of the adversary to prevent Ukrainian advance, but their attacks led to them being thrown back and Ukraine liberating two settlements. Ukrainian forces are getting foothold at the moment.
The Black Sea
A Black Sea Fleet group attempts to block the North West section of the sea but avoids the strike range of anti-ship Harpoon complexes. Active reconnaissance. Sometimes, floating mines appear, whether on purpose or accidentally, creating obstacles for ships. Sixth grain convoy is currently loading in Ukraine ports.
Up to two Kalibr missile carriers are on duty in the sea, ready to strike, but lately the strikes were not common. Most Kalibrs launched from these ships were taken down.
Ukrainian city strikes
Sumy and Chernihiv were under missile attacks, but also mortar and gun fire. Similarly with Mykolaiv. Kharkiv was more or less quiet. Kyrovograd was also shelled.
Ukrainian strikes in Kherson Oblast, Melitopol, Nova Kakhovka, and generally in the south of Ukraine. In the past day, 7 occupier’s facilities were attacked.
Situation with Azovstal defenders and Ukrainian POWs
It is the most painful topic for Ukrainians, with everyone asking what is the state doing to prevent the announced trial in Mariupol on 24 August, Ukraine’s Independence Day. Today, in world capitals protests take place demanding to liberate defenders of Azovstal. It’s important to note that in the 8 years of the occupation, Russian propaganda created a negative image of Azov regiment, claiming them to be nazis and nationalists. As a state, opposing informational campaign is required to break this stereotype and make it clear Azov are a national guard unit, combatants under oath, servicemen of the Ukrainian state, and all international POW conventions apply to them.
In the USA, state department head expressed worry about potential trial over 5 international foreigners. The international legion is fighting in Ukraine on a legal basis – they signed a contract with the AFU, thus they are servicemen and combatants, therefore Geneva convention applies to them. This trial over a Brit, a Czech, an American and someone else, it would be illegal to trial them as mercenaries. Unfortunately there are no guarantees RF will follow international legal norms.
In the USA, separate politicians made claims that USA didn’t give any weapons to Ukraine to strike Saky aerodrome, confirming Ukrainian claim they have no relation to that strike.
In the RF, attempts begun to switch the military industrial complex and economy onto military rails. This is too late. Import replacement program failed completely – no vehicles or weapons can be produced without import, such as attempts to reproduce KAMAZ with 740 engine from the USSR have failed due to a lack of parts. There are a lot of German parts in it. Same applies to tanks, although artillery might be possible to produce, but only towed, in the old Soviet format, not complex machines. Regardless, this requires time, which the RF currently doesn’t have.
Additionally, MoD of Estonia said the Baltic Sea becomes the internal NATO sea, and Russia keeps a tiny portion of the Baltics and the Gulf of Finland.