Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov brings an update to the frontline situation in Ukraine on 29 July 2022.
Generally speaking, the frontline is stable – there were no substantial events at the frontline in the past day, however the informational and political situation became more active active.
Volyn, Polesye, Siversk direction (North)
Continued shelling at Siversk.
At Volyn-Polesye direction, the activities and numbers of the Belarusian forces have not changed. Belarusian forces continue attempting air reconnaissance with UAVs without entering Ukrainian airspace. The danger of missile strikes from Belarusian territory remains with a range of rocket types, including Iskander and S-300 ground-to-ground complexes.
No changes – the Russian forces are conducting deterring fights, Ukrainian forces are probing the defensive lines in order to push away the Russians to the state borders. Artillery exchanges, Russians are using aviation, including near Starosaltov.
Shelling, but no active hostilities in the past day – positional fights. Russian forces now need 3-4 days to accumulate more fuel and ammunitions before advancing again.
The Russian forces continue shelling the Ukrainian line of defence from all available methods, no active assault operations as of today.
Continued shelling, some assault operations towards Novoluhanske and Soledar for two days. Ukrainians repelled assault attempts at Vershyna and Semigorye. Artillery skirmishes continue.
Avdeevka, Novopavloskoye, Zaporozhye direction
Aside from shelling, near Aydarovka the Russians used aviation and conducted airstrikes. Vodyanovo and Peski – Russian reconnaissance by fire has failed to open up Ukrainian defences.
Yuzhnyi Bug (Pivdennyi Bug) direction
No major changes, Ukrainians continue shelling of the Russian positions and ammo and fuel caches. Russians are attempting to set up pontoon crossing over Antonovskyi bridge. Dnieper river is complicated for crossing in this area so attempts will continue. The pontoon crossing will be destroyed. There are also rumours of a ferry being set up.
Ol’gyno has been re-captured by Ukrainian forces. The “fire sack” at Verhnepolye remains so far and it’s being attacked by Ukrainians from Ol’gyno, but there is no clear number of the Russian forces there – no more than 1,000. The Russian forces are conducting assault operations to push away the Ukrainian forces, so far unsuccessfully.
In the south, the Russian air defence has been considerably compromised allowing for Ukrainian strike aviation to operate at strongpoints and defensive lines.
Locals at Kherson report that the Russian forces began purchasing individual watercraft such as inflatable mattresses and boats in large numbers.
The Black Sea
Three Kalibr missile carriers remain in the Black Sea – up to 24 missiles can be fired simultaneously.
Chuguev, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv – serious shelling, in Mykolaiv cluster missiles were used to strike a residential area resulting in at least 7 casualties.
Both the video of a brutal execution of the Ukrainian soldier, and the Yelenovka prison camp strike, are part of the informational attack that’s being carried out today. In Yelenovka, the correspondents were nearby to film the event. This is made to discredit the Ukrainian forces ahead of the Kherson offensive operations.
- After China and the USA made strong statements regarding Taiwan and Nancy Pelosi’s visit, the USA have brought their carrier group closer to Chinese shores, including two Chinese destroyers. A call was made between Chinese and American leadership last night to discuss security concerns in the region. Dialogue continues.
- The topic of delivery of the Iranian UAVs to Russia remains on the agenda. Today, an Iranian transport Boeing 777 was noticed in Moscow. Previously, it was used to transport weapons. However, it is unlikely that the UAVs would be brought to Moscow. If so, the Western intelligence would already know about this, but this information has not been confirmed.
- A meeting between Putin and Erdogan is being prepared in Sochi on 5 August. The grain issues is most likely to be discussed – Turkey prefers to finalise the deal and receive 25% of the grain to be exported from Ukraine. The Odesa port strike allows V. Putin a stronger position in the negotiations. The Syrian question is most likely to be an exchange factor in these negotiations.
- Possibly, the Russian Federation will use Karabakh as a negotiations factor since Azerbaijan is expressing dissatisfaction with regards to Russia’s reluctance to fulfil the three-side peace agreement between the RF, Armenia and Azerbaijan. According to it, the Russian Federation must disarm all illegal armed formations and remove them from Karabakh area. Apparently, Azerbaijan is accumulation forces to resolve this question with military means.