Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov brings an update to the frontline situation in Ukraine on 27 July 2022.

Northern direction – Volyn – Polesye (Belarus)

No changes. Belarusian forces continue air reconnaissance but they do not enter Ukrainian airspace after two UAVs were taken down.

Siversk direction

No changes. Continued shelling resulting in casualties among civilian population, and infrastructure damage.

Kharkiv direction

Continued shelling. Along the line and in near rears, Russian forces are creating pontoon crossings over water obstacles to shorten supply lines to the frontline. This is caused by attacks on ammo caches. Kharkiv city shelled substantially.

Sloviansk direction 

Positional fights and artillery skirmishes with no major changes. Russian forces are regrouping and accumulating ammo and fuel.

Kramatorsk direction

Artillery and aviation strikes. Assault operation at Verhnekamenka by the Russian forces which resulted in losses and a retreat.

Bakhmut direction

Shelling, firefights near Soledar. Russian forces are having a partial success of moving towards Soledar. Only firefights without heavy vehicles involved resulted in retreats of the Russian forces. Near Semigorye, they conduced reconnaissance by fire and attempted an assault despite failure of reconnaissance mission. Fights continue.

Avdeevka – Novopavlivsk – Zaporizhye direction

No active hostilities, only artillery exchanges and shelling.

Pivdennyi Bug direction

The most interesting direction at the moment – successes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine at Lozovoye and Andreevka settlements which were recaptured. At night, strikes at three bridges – Antonovsky, which is not suitable for vehicles anymore. According to witnesses, additional strikes were at a railway bridge to the north, and Dmitrievsky bridge near Nova Kakhovka. 

Most likely scenario to be chosen by the Ukrainian General Staff will be to suffocate the Russian Forces rather than attempting encirclements. Bridge strike most likely carried out while the column was crossing it as evidenced by double detonations after the MLRS strike. No one can cross via the bridge anymore so the forces stuck on the right bank wont’ be able to come out. A force surrender of the Russian forces is expected in the future.

Despite this position, the Russian forces attacked at Belogorka but failed and retreated.

The Black Sea

Up to two Kalibr carriers remain, combined strike may consist of up to 16 Kalibr missiles. 

Missile strikes at the cities

In the past day, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv suffered the most. In both cities, various rockets were used – mostly S-300 which are modernised since 2017 with GPS trackers to enable ground-to-ground fire. In Mykolaiv, X-59 “Ovod” was used, rather old rocket which during the 1970s was considered high-precision. 

Transnistria

Stable situation. Moldova is considering the military threat from Transnistria but no appeals from Moldova reached Ukraine.

Political update

• Ukraine received postponement of foreign debt payments until the end of 2023 which eliminates risk of default. 
• Also, Ukrainian government asked the USA to provide a gas “lend lease”, most likely to come via LNG terminals. Buglaria and Greece are ready to transit this gas. Bulgaria is connected to Ukrainian system, while Greece can transfer gas via European connections. If the USA agrees, there is an opportunity for a stable winter season using American gas. Despite Germany’s desire to alleviate sanctions and help with transfer of a gas turbine, the Russian Federation continues weaponising gas supply. 
• In Tehran, Putin offered Erdogan to start producing UAVs in Russia but the offer was declined. Erdogan is going to Sochi to receive security guarantees to conduct the grain deal. If this works out, Turkey gets 25% of the grain below the market price. 
• The Ukraine-Russia-Turkey committee began functioning in Turkey. Ukraine cannot withdraw from this platform for at least 120 days which can be extended. The Russian Federation is attempting to bring Ukraine to the negotiations table and ask for a truce given that there is no requirement for the RF to stop rocket strikes on Ukraine in the deal. Truce is unacceptable for Ukraine.
• Gosduma (Russian parliament) wants to declare Ukraine a terrorist state. 
• Spiegel magazine published an article claiming that Ukraine will buy from Germany one hundred ultra-modern PhZ-2000 howitzers. Ukraine would receive brand new howitzers however the delivery times are uncertain. Otherwise, it’s good news.