Summary of a broadcast with Igor Girkin (Strelkov) and military expert Maksim Klimov (very similar temperament to Strelkov). Original in Russian can be found here.
Outlook and discussion
Opinion of the colleague – strategic:
Believes the current situation will lead to the USA losing its world hegemony. China plays a key role, and for the US it is essential to have a large war with China. Believes the USA wants to overthrow Russia’s (and Ukraine’s) government and set up pro-Western puppets to use them in a war against China. China is a great country worth to be friends with but one (Russia) cannot be weak in that friendship.
Strelkov: The goal of NATO is to bleed Russia with Ukraine’s own efforts and sacrifice, therefore the war must go for as long as possible, while military victory for Russia shouldn’t be allowed at any cost.
Liberation of the whole of Donbas will not affect the outcome of this war. The south of Ukraine will be the main battlefield due to availability of aviation reconnaissance and the threats are to be taken seriously. But they believe Kherson will stay with Russia.
HIMARS – the enemy created a strike force using HIMARS, safely shells ammo depots, command points, air defence. How to fight them given that in August Ukraine will receive 300-500km long-range missiles allowing strikes into rears similar to ones Russia is conducting?
Current losses are due to Russia’s own lack of camouflage, dispersion, disinformation and other elements that prevent strikes.
Death of the commander of the 20th motor rifle division – all command is gone, and at Bryanka daily at 6pm there was a meeting for weeks which led to strikes. What lead to it? Again, lack of even the basic disguise tools. Upon the request to the Ministry of Defence regarding switching the economy into the special (war) mode, the answer came back, without any technical details, saying that this is purely a prerogative of the President Putin.
Huge problems with rear services that won’t be helped even with enormous finance investments. For instance, defence elements for BMP-2 APC purchased by contracts of 2020-21 only arrived to the frontlines two months into the SMO, when a bunch of vehicles were already lost. Instead, vehicles had to be equipped with wood and random metal constructions to defend from grenades.
We were laughing at Ukrainians in 2014 but they managed to dramatically decrease casualties. What about us? Think how many could have been saved, how many could have kept their limbs? Or not suffer at all, if all responsible conducted their responsibilities correctly.
Instead, nothing was made ready for the war that was not chasing berbers in the desert. Aside from SSO and a few VDV units nothing was ready. Even those had to be equipped with Chinese radios and poor vehicles. “Mobiks” in the south are holding the frontline with Mosin-Nagant rifles and Degtyaryov machine guns. Same situation with the complete lack of UAVs. Therefore the army was not ready to fight with several hundred thousand army of the Ukraine.
What to do now? The plan of action will be dictated by potential consequences. Nuclear factor is definitely taken into account by American side, they certainly don’t want a large-scale nuclear war and look for resolutions. They have two options.
First is that America wants to try and trigger Russia to attack NATO in Poland, but more importantly in Kaliningrad, at Suwalki Gap. They don’t have to do much – simply reinforce the area and provoke Russia when Kaliningrad becomes cut off aside from the sea.
Second – a possibility of an unexpected nuclear strike to shut down nuclear capabilities of the Russian Federation. This option has been developed for decades. Current Russian land group is vulnerable to a nuclear strike, and Russian naval defence capabilities including submarines are completely rotten and outdated. There is currently nothing to prevent a nuclear strike on Russia. Therefore as a matter of deescalation, moratorium for nuclear tests should be lifted.
The Black Sea Fleet situation is a shame due to its corruption – Moskva lost with shame. Yet the BSF commander had enough balls to show up at the graduation ceremony in the naval academy. Back in the day, he would have been beaten. The use of anti-ship missiles at land objects is similarly indicating to absence of high-precision missiles i.e. Kalibr. There used a lot of rockets, but not anymore.
Vinnytsa 14 July strike – tough day, two girls died. Why strike there? Strelkov is wondering why are they striking such objects but not the decision making points, or bridges? Strelkov’s colleague believes it was simply in someone’s plan to strike that position, so it was done.
It is a huge problem since so few missiles are left – more have been used than the US have ever used, it’s a huge strain for the budget. That money didn’t go into communications or UAVs. The strike, even if it killed 200 Ukrainian military, could have been carried out at the frontline. Instead, this affects the civilian morale.
The sensibility of striking such objects is extremely questionable, including Zarya plant in Mykolaiv. At Zarya, turbines for frigates were being produced that were meant to go to Russia, and are not produced in Russia. Striking it didn’t make any sense.
The lies of the lower ranks go all the way to the top of the Russian army command. Fake reports of successes delivered by MoD are likely reaching the President.
At the same time, look how much panic was caused by a dozen of HIMARS systems. Meanwhile, the US have about 500 of them, and another 1000 of the MLRS. They are not using their aces yet. Battle for the south of Ukraine will be crucial – if Ukraine loses Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, it will not be able to continue fighting.
Siversk has been liberated by L/DPR forces, but how? Simply through Ukraine abandoning positions. And that’s a town with 10,000 population. Such slow advance is senseless and will lead to a war dragging out for 5-10 years easily. Even then, Russia has already a lot of its potential. Therefore, mobilisation is inevitable.
Strelkov does not believe the current capabilities and forces are enough for anything. Given his access to the data, he is aware of cases where Russian units chasing the Ukrainian troops retreating from Lysychansk had to walk 35 kilometers due to a lack of vehicles.
A lot of refuseniks in Russian units. In some formations, as many refused as those who are at the frontline. They’re not all the same – some are cowards, other left for good reasons such as command negligence.
How critical was destruction of 15-20 ammo depots for combat effectiveness of L/DPR and RF AF?
At least, these were there for a reason. The shell hunger is likely to be compensated but the people who service these stockpiles are not easy to compensate. The morale effect is significant. The shell hunger would have a much more dramatic effect however if Ukraine starts a counter-offensive soon.
Why is Ukraine destroying Russian air defence?
To destroy it. But also, to test elements of the American military doctrine. Knocking out air defence leads to elimination of cover from the air, and to vulnerability to UAVs. Soviet air defence doctrine was effective. Modern Russian is not.
Should the rumours of the UK transferring nuclear weapons to Ukraine be taken seriously?
No. However, what can be transferred is chemical weapons to be used for provocations.
What is the possibility that during the grain discussions in Turkey, instead, Minsk-3 is being discussed?
The probability is very high. However, Ukraine will not go to any negotiations until the command from West comes when it becomes obvious it is too weak. As of now, UAF are not defeated at all. They will not negotiate.
How can the high command of RF win if their relatives are permanently living in NATO countries? Is that a guarantee against a nuclear war?
No, but not because Putin doesn’t want a big war. It is the USA that need the big war, since without a big war their prospects are very poor. Current Western establishment has become extremely dumb.
Is the Russian industry capable to replenish losses in equipment, especially modern such as T-90M, BMP-3?
There are movements in the industry, but there is still no understanding of the problem on a state level. Yes, there are even improvements in import replacement, not everything is fatal, but it’s not enough.
The current dangers are very serious. If Russia does not wake up then it is risking going into dark times worse than the 1917 revolutions, since back then the territorial integrity was not under threat.
Regarding supplies of aircraft to Ukraine.
This is possible, there might be surprises in the sky soon.