Russian military commentator “Atomic Cherry” believes Ukraine now has at its disposal long-range weapons capable of breaking through the Russian air defence and reaching deep rears of the Russian forces. This was shared in a Telegram post on 19 August. He believes it is the Neptune anti-ship missile that could have been simplified to a certain extent to allow breaking through the thick ship air defence. The carriers for these missiles are the Su-24 bombers which Ukraine had over 80 at the start of the war. This is indicated by a large number of important Russian targets that were hit recently:
Mayskoye ammunition and equipment storage base.
Port of Berdyansk.
Warehouses Novotroitskoye, Novoalekseevka and Kirillovka.
Transformer substation “Dzhankoy”.
Airport Stary Oskol.
I devoted my last text nine days ago to the emergence of deep operational strike capabilities in Ukraine. At that time, two objects from the above list were hit: a military airfield in Novofedorovka and an ammunition depot in Kirillovka. Based on that data, it was impossible to confirm the fact that the Ukrainian army had means capable of penetrating into the air defense zone at a distance of more than 120 km. This figure is important because it is the maximum range any Ukraine ballistic missile (Tochka-U).
But over the past nine days, a total of 11 military facilities (including those of strategic importance) have been attacked. This confirms the fact, that the Ukrainian armed forces have at their disposal the technical means that allow them to carry out operations in the deep rear of the Russian forces.
Over the decades of development of military science and technology, subsonic cruise missiles capable of flying at extremely low altitudes have become one of the most reliable means of guaranteeing penetration into the zone of operation of layered air defense. In combination with well-conducted satellite and electronic recon, careful analysis and planning, a cruise missile can overcome even the densest ground-based air defenses.
A year ago, Luch Design Bureau, which designed the Neptune cruise missile, was working on adapting it for use on the Su-24M tactical bomber. This choice is no accident. The Su-24, even at the concept stage, was created for extremely non-trivial tasks – for example, for supersonic low-altitude breakthroughs in the zone of activity of enemy air defense and fighter aircraft (for example, the introduction of Su-24 “Fencer” led to a significant restructuring of Japan’s air defense – the aircraft had great potential, which, it seems, could only be truly revealed recently, at the end of it’s service).
The overall picture develops itself – on the one hand, there is a ready weapons system (besides, it was tested earlier in incidents with ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet), on the other, a launch platform, on the third, documentary evidence that the Ukrainian military industry was working in this direction. It should also be noted that at the beginning of the conflict, Ukraine had more than 80 Su-24s in conservation – that is, more than enough to find aircraft for conversion to carry cruise missiles.
P.S.: the strikes could not be carried out by ATACMS systems, because the fact of the use of ballistic missiles cannot be hidden. It is likely that some of the attacks were actually carried out with the involvement of sabotage groups, however, it is physically impossible to carry out 11 operations in such a short time on such a large territory (from Belgorod to Crimea).
The ex-Ukrainian (defector) politician Dimitriyev vouches for Atomic Cherry’s statements, referring to his earlier predictions about Moskva sinking:
To the honor of “Atomic Cherry”, as a forecaster, it must be said that the day before yesterday he said that in the coming days we should expect an attack on Belbek airport. I remember that he managed to predict an attack on the cruiser Moskva the day before she was sunk. And I remembered the prediction about Belbek. There was an attack yesterday. So I recommend to pay attention to his assumptions.