New entrant to our regular translations, the popular Russian military blogger affiliated with Strelkov, Borys Rozhyn or “Colonel Cassad” weighs in on the potential Ukrainian summer offensive, pointing at three directions of a presumed attack. He also claims this offensive is essential not only for Ukraine but also for the USA who are approaching the midterm elections this fall, and that the Biden admin must show effective support for Ukraine to come through:
Regarding the questions about the prospects of a more or less large scale offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces during summer 2022. Given the current trends, UAF appears to have two realistic options:
1. Krivyi Rih-Nikopol direction. The objective is to take a piece of RF AF foothold on the right bank *of Dniepr*, remove the danger for Kryvyi Rih and Nikopol, push away RF AF to Kherson. Of course, UAF do not have strength for an assault, likewise the offensive on Kherson from Mykolaiv does not promise success. But the reduction of the foothold on the right bank can be attempted to be sold as a victory.
2. Zaporizhye direction. They can attempt to take Vasilyevka, move towards Polohy and in case of successful developments advance to Tokmak. By relying on Zaporizhye they can accumulate forces at Orekhov-Huliaipole front. Such advance would show readiness to challenge Russian claims for the control of Zaporizhye Oblast.
3. In Kharkiv, Izyum and Donetsk directions local counter-attacks are possible, but it is unlikely that UAF could count on significant success due to substantial superiority of RF AF in aviation and artillery. Such counter-attacks can be beneficial for RF AF if they are detected in a timely manner, since in such case serious losses in manpower and equipment can be dealt to the most combat-ready units of UAF in a short time.
The main challenges for any counter-attacking attempts of UAF is that the largest part of assistance from the West goes to Donbas to hold the frontline, which complicates accumulation of reserves that could be used for counter-attacks. However, the work is underway in this direction, and the stated dates between the second half of July and August are quite realistic, therefore we shouldn’t underestimate the readiness of the enemy for such activities, especially since for geopolitical reasons the USA need at least some military victory before the midterm elections in fall this year. A lack of victories will not only have consequences for Zelenskyi’s gang, but also, and even more so, for the Biden administration which will be criticised for the lack of effective support of Zelenskyi’s gang, which is a domestic political factor. Therefore, the Ukrainian offensive in summer will most likely happen, regardless of whether the UAF are ready for it or not. Therefore, *Russian* reconnaissance plays a significant role, it will be able to uncover preparations for such an offensive in advance and provide necessary time to stop the enemy efforts.
