Igor Girkin provides the latest overview of the situation on the Ukrainian frontlines on 5 August, 2022 from the Russian point of view. The update is available on his Telegram channel. According to Girkin, the Russian offensive in the Donetsk area is moving but is very slow, and he expects a Ukrainian counter-offensive in two directions soon:
Border frontline (from the border of Belarus to Kharkiv Oblast) – an escalation of tensions along the whole length. Daily artillery skirmishes, Ukrainian artillery strikes at settlements on the Russian Federation territory, and counter-battery fire from our side. Ukrainian and Russian Armed Forces are gradually bringing up the forces, both afraid of the enemy starting an operation. At the same time, neither sides are yet ready for a full-scale escalation of hostilities in this section. For the RF AF this is due to an acute shortage of necessary formations and personnel even at the “active” frontlines. For UAF – most likely they are afraid of a move of the RF from the Special Operation to the full-scale war, in which the so-called ukraine has no chances to win. Nevertheless, sooner or later the hostilities will be taking place along the whole border.
Kharkiv frontline – the RF AF are attempting to expand the foothold on the West bank of Siverskyi Donets around Balakleya, fights take place near the village of Husarivka. From this foothold, in theory, it is possible to advance both to the north to envelop the Kharkiv group of the enemy, and attempt attacks to the south – towards Barvenkovo.
Sloviansk direction – with no major changes. At the same time, by using their advantage in the manpower in this area, the UAF are tactically pushing out our “thin” (in terms of actual troops) units by taking the previously abandoned positions and creating new positions in areas where previously the hostilities were not taking place. Artillery exchanges from both sides.
Siversk-Bakhmut-Soledar front. A slow and tactical advance of the RF AF continues. “Wagner” are trying to enter the territory of Bakhmut (ours are saying they did, ukrs are denying it, in any case – fights are taking place in the city outskirts). Roughly the same situation is with Soledar, but an assault on it is extremely complicated due to a fortified military base, the biggest part of is deep in the underground, which excludes its destruction even with a nuclear strike. Fights are on-going in the industrial zone in the outskirts of the city.
Donetsk front. Units of the 1st corps of the DPR AF are “struggling to finish off” Pesky and Maryinka. Pesky are almost fully taken, Maryinka – about 2/3s. Around Krasnogorovka the frontline is without changes at its eastern border. North of Avdiivka, there is no movement in the past day, or I don’t know about it. In general, the gnawing through the main line of defence of the UAF is slow and difficult. Speed of the advance counts to dozens of meters per day, not more (but not everywhere). The UAF are taking serious losses in manpower due to a mass artillery fire, but have an option to replenish them from reserves. Terrorist shelling of Donetsk, Horlivka, Makeevka continues, including “planting” of anti-personnel “Lepestok” mines.
Zaporizhye frontline is quiet. At the same time, numerous reports are coming through about active movements of large reserves of the UAF in the rears in this direction.
Kherson frontline – same situation as in Zaporizhye, with the only difference in that the artillery and missiles strikes are taking place continuously. In the Ukrainian social media the rumours are spreading about the upcoming RF AF offensive, and the date is given – 6 August. It is not impossible that their own intention to advance is being masked with this.
General situation – RF AF made their “move”, the UAF – not yet. After over a week of advance near Donetsk, the collapse of the enemy’s defence didn’t happen. And it can only be spoken of after the fall of Avdiivka (which has not yet been entered, and it’s far until its blockade either). In the conditions of an acute lack of manpower in the RF AF and the DPR AF, the chosen tactic of “pushing out” with a mass support of artillery is the only one available and relatively effective, as it allows to “preserve losses”. But due to a strategic gridlock in which our frontline ended up after the failure of the SMO, and the failure of the second (“Concrete”) stage of the operation, the offensive at Donetsk will not help us even in the most positive outcome of events.
I am expecting soon an attempt of the UAF offensive in Kherson or Zaporizhye direction, or at both simultaneously.