Igor Girkin claims that the Russian and L/DPR forces today started an assault of Avdiivka which is a strongpoint in the Donbas under control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Avdiivka has withstood so far in the war and presents a danger to the Russian Armed Forces concentrated near Donetsk. According to Girkin, the battle for the initiative which he predicted months ago is now underway and will test both sides. The message was shared on Igor’s Telegram channel:
Assault of Avdiivka. The battle for the initiative has started.
So, the Russian military thinking was marked by another genius military decision – while the ukrops are trying to achieve success on Kherson direction (where a breakthrough of a frontline in theory promises a deep penetration or at least an operational success), our military geniuses again decided to directly assault Avdiivka.
Today, after several hours of artillery preparation, the remnants of the DPR infantry attacked it [Avdiivka] and the surrounding “bastions”.
Naturally, I wish our fighters maximum success. But even in the most favourable case (that is when after fierce street battles and fights inside the depths of the enemy’s prepared defences, our forces will take Avdiivka etc), the frontline will only be moved to the next defensive line of the enemy – that is the same Sloviansk – Kramatorsk – Druzhovka – Konstantinovka – Kurakhovo line. Hardly any deeper. Although for me personally such success does not seem to be guaranteed at all (knowing the state of the DPR and RF Armed Forces infantry).
Since I’ve written dozen of times that even the complete “pushing out” of the UAF from the Donbas (without the defeat or encirclement of the group concentrated there) will not lead to a victory in the war and will not even bring it much closer, I must state that this move of the “Third Effective Stage of the SMO” looks to be a copy of the “Second Concrete Stage”, and in result will lead to a loss of remnants of the main resource – TIME. Not even talking about the irreversible losses in people who will be sacrificed in the name of the strategy which is being implemented by the RF AF. Most likely, the “backbone” of our forces in this war, which is the L/DPR infantry, will be finished off completely as a result of the operation that has begun. Ukrs, without any doubt will also suffer enormous losses. But they have something to replenish them with.
In any case, the “operational pause” seems to have ended. Both the enemy and our command have indicated where they will apply their main forces in August-September. And only time will tell whose decision was more correct.
Personally, I am still ready to take part in the war in any capacity. Which is what I remind you of in case someone is tired of criticism.