Igor Girkin provides a recap of the Donbas offensive saying that while Russians achieved significant tactical victories, their forces are practically exhausted and unable to move further. As always we do not recommend taking this information at face value and encourage you to check it with various sources.

Source (00:00 – 21:28):

In general, considering that 9/10ths of the 2,000 km frontline remain stable, in the sections where in the past weeks active battles took place, today, or rather yesterday, a breakthrough happened  – our forces managed to enter Lysychansk and according to numerous, but yet unofficial data, Ukrainian army withdraws from Lysychansk bulge and the city and retreats to Seversk to its main defence line.

 

So, after all Lysychansk was finished, although in the last 1-1,5 weeks I had doubts it would be finished as the messages coming through were not encouraging. But in the decisive moment when Donetsk and Luhansk assault infantry nearly exhausted its offensive capabilities, in the moment of its maximum advancement the Russian reserves were competently deployed – the BTG of the 90th Tank Brigade managed to break through the enemy defence and created conditions for their encirclement.

 

Therefore, UAF had to first withdraw from Gorskoye-Zolotoye fortress, in fact to retreat quickly to avoid the complete encirclement. And since the whole integrity of the frontline was compromised due to this, Ukrainian command made a decision for a general withdrawal of the forces […] Information from today was that between 1/3 to 1/2 of the city is already taken by Russian forces and LDPR detachments […] Ukrainians abandoned their positions north-west of Lysychansk towards Siverskyi Donets and the Russian troops crossed the river without resistance and started entering Lysychansk from the north. […]

 

I’m expecting messages that Lysychansk will be declared fully liberated in the nearest future. […] Ukrainians are withdrawing their forces to the stationary defence line of Seversk-Soledar-Bakhmut, preserving the Donetsk bulge on the line towards Avdeevka and along the western borders of Donetsk – Maryinka and Uhledar.

 

Russian forces, in conclusion, managed to deal a substantial blow to the Ukrainian forces defending on stationary and well-defended positions, to smash, in places even defeat a part of these formations, but failed to create even a partial “cauldron”. Therefore it can be said that the result of the second, two-month stage of the so-called SMO was only achieved partially.

 

The whole Donbas group *of UAF* was not defeated, only its north-eastern part, and especially the whole Donetsk agglomeration was not liberated. Soon we could say the whole of LPR territory will be liberated, but the largest part of DPR remains in the enemy’s hands. In the next few days I believe the operation will end. Why do I believe so? It is because, without going into detail, I have information that the enemy has already occupied with fresh forces the second line of defence from Seversk to Bakhmut, while our forces are practically at the limit of their offensive capabilities due both to losses and extreme exhaustion of LDPR forces. […]

 

I believe the battle is coming to an end, but where will the next one begin – we have spoken about this, we don’t know yet. Presumably there will be a set of battles, the most promising directions are Kherson-Mykolaiv and Kharkiv, the battle for initiative which will definitely start soon. Currently, for UAF who suffered a tactical but still serious defeat, suffered significant losses, for them it is very important to raise the morale of their troops or have at least a media victory, so I believe somewhere they will certainly attack.

 

In this regard, a lot of questions come about Snake Island. To be honest, up until recently it did not have much significance, since while the Russian fleet had superiority in the Black Sea, while it could practically patrol in front of enemy’s shores at Odesa, the significance of Snake Island was small. But now, its significance grows dramatically […]

 

If the enemy gets ownership of the island, for them it will be not only media but also a military victory because the enemy, using cover of anti-ship missile complexes concentrated in the mouth of Danube will be able to place their anti-air and anti-ship equipment on the island and extend the strike range by 100-150 kilometers, thus seriously pushing the Russian fleet in these waters. […] This will lead to a substantial weakening of the blockade of the Odesa port. And of course for Ukraine this is important for propaganda purposes to liberate this notable position. […] I believe they will continue amassing larger and larger missile and UAV attacks and even aviation to destroy the garrison and deal a defeat to the Black Sea fleet. […]

 

Additionally, frontline stabilised near Kharkiv, our troops that attempted a counter-attack in early and mid June restored the safe zone along the Russian border. Ukrainian forces again tried to push Russian troops to the border but failed, fights are on-going at the moment. […] In Uhledar area the enemy struck detachments of militia “mobiks” of DPR who couldn’t hold due to a lack of weaponry, however the general advancement of the enemy did not surpass a few kilometers. […] In general the strike did not have serious basis but was needed to distract Russian forces from the main direction at Lysychansk (Severodonetsk back then).