Igor Girkin – frontline situation – 26 July 2022

Posted on 27 July 2022

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Igor Girkin provides on his Telegram channel an overview of the frontline in Ukraine as of 26 July 2022:

Frontline situation

 

Kharkiv frontline – positional fights and fights of local significance. Izyum frontline (Sloviansk direction) – the same.

 

Siversk-Soledar-Bakhmut frontline – local fights with tactical (in places) insignificant advance of our forces. Siversk and surrounding heights are for now remaining in the hands of the enemy. Our forces have not directly reached the outskirts of Soledar and Bakhmut either. At the south tip of this frontline the slow pushing out of the enemy from the bulge near the Uhlegorsk thermal power plant and Novoluhanske village continues. As of last night there was no full control established over both these points, despite the fact that further holding of these positions for the enemy is complicated and they will have to leave them in the nearest future.

 

In essence, at this section a slow displacement of UAF units takes places (mainly thanks to a significant superiority in artillery of RF AF in this direction) from the foreground of the second main line of defence located along this line. The pace of the advancement does not allow to hope that without stepping up efforts it will be possible to reach the borders of DPR not only by the end of August, but also by the end of September.

 

The frontline from Horlivka to the south part of Donetsk is without changes. Positional battles, exchange of artillery, and missile strikes. Early this morning, the AFU launched another missile and artillery strike on Donetsk, destroying targets in the oil depot area.

 

Zaporizhzhya front – positional fighting.

 

 The enemy is probing our defensive positions in the Volnovakha direction, in the direction of Polohy. This area might be the possible direction of the auxiliary offensive of the AFU. 

 

Kherson Front:

After unsuccessful attacks on our positions to the southeast and south of Kryvyi Rih, the AFU continues to build up forces on the entire front of the Right Bank bridgehead of the AFU. Currently, fierce artillery shelling of our troops’ forward and rear positions and attempts at aerial attacks are taking place daily. AFU attacks ammunition depots, air defense positions, and transport and supply facilities. Our troops are actively responding, seeking to disrupt the concentration of enemy strike groups.

 

I expect an enemy offensive soon in the direction (conditional line) of Kryvyi Rih – Beryslav – with access to the dam near Novaya Kakhovka; in the direction directly to Kherson from the northwest and northeast directions. The enemy may attempt to dissect our bridgehead by crossing the Ingulets River in the center of our positions.

 

General points: The AFU continues to increase rocket fire on rear transport hubs, air defense positions, and artillery in the near rear of Russian forces in the Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, paying particular attention to critical bridges on the Dnipro (there are two in total) in the hope of disabling them. The Russian Air Force markedly intensified air strikes against AFU facilities in the southern section of the front. Russian artillery has noticeably improved its support of our forward units.

 

Rocket strikes against targets in the frontline zone of the southern front also markedly intensified.

 

Conclusion: 

 

Despite some positive changes in artillery and aviation support of the ground forces, the Russian Armed Forces, in essence, are LOSING INITIATIVE to the AFU leadership, preparing to end the operational pause with a defensive rather than offensive battle. The most likely theater of this battle will be the southern front (Kherson-Zaporizhia). For any large-scale offensive action, the Russian command does not have the main thing – sufficient human resources. Perhaps the bet is placed on the defeat of AFU forces in the defensive battle – at the expense of air superiority and some advantage in artillery. With the subsequent transition to a counteroffensive.

 

Possibly, the displacement of the enemy from the DNR territory and the failure in the south will force Kyiv to call a truce (in my opinion – if there is such hope – it is initially false and utterly idiotic, but it is pretty probable, unfortunately). On the part of the AFU, and offensive – a “battle for the initiative” – seems to be the only logical step, both from a purely military and military-political point of view. Time will tell how accurate the forecasts and assumptions are. For the time being, the operational pause is continuing. But its time will soon expire.”

 

Reminder: Igor Girkin is a terrorist and war criminal despite being able to provide exciting insights.




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