Pretty big update from Girkin on the frontline situation, but fundamentally without positive changes for the Russian forces. Girkin points at the crisis in Wagner and believes RF forces have just a few days left to start the offensive before the thaw. The original can be found here.

“Situation at the front.

Russian border – artillery and local tactical battles. In some areas, the RF Armed Forces again crossed the border and entered the territory of the Kharkiv region and within a few days occupied 1 or 2 border settlements. There’s nothing on the offensive yet. Skirmishes intensified at the borders with the Sumy region. The enemy continues to regularly/daily shell the settlements of the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions, trying to “disperse” strikes (inflicted by mobile batteries and individual guns) on the largest possible number of settlements, in order to demoralise their population.

The front along the borders of the LPR (from the old border of the Russian Federation to the Siversky Donets) is generally unchanged. Local fights in Kuypansk and Lyman directions. Ukrainians are continuously being pushed in forests west of Kreminna.

Fierce fighting continues in the Bakhmut area. Apparently, the lack of forces and equipment caused by losses in previous battles is forcing Wagner to narrow the offensive zone. Over the past two days, there was no advance in the area of Chasiv Yar on the southern flank of the barely emerging “pincers”. Frontal assault attacks continue in urban areas with little progress. On the “northern” flank, two days ago, PMC fighters managed to take another suburban area of ​​Bakhmut, the village of Paraskoveevka, and advance to the northern outskirts of the urban area directly.

Against the backdrop of the heart-rending calls of “Wagner bloggers” about the lack and non-delivery of ammunition from the RF Ministry of Defense, Prigozhin’s meeting with the former deputy commander of the DPR People’s Militia Basurin looks understandable, but silly. Apparently, they spoke about the possibility of “getting” ammunition and getting reinforcements for PMCs by recruiting servicemen “rejected” during re-certification in the RF Armed Forces. In any case, discussing such issues with Basurin (who, before the dissolution of the People’s Militia, was nothing more than a “fool-ass”, like a “mini-Konashenkov”), only testifies to the depth of Prigozhin’s “personal crisis” as the leader of the “private army”.

In this regard, the capture of Bakhmut, which was predicted (including by me) before the end of February, again seems problematic. Without replenishments and a sufficient amount of ammunition (or without a large-scale involvement of units and formations of the RF Armed Forces), it may not be possible to “put the squeeze on” the city.

South of Avdiivka, latest attempts to build on success and clear the outskirts of Vodyane, which remained behind the enemy, failed. For this, the former “corpsmen” of the DPR PM and volunteer units have too few people, military equipment, artillery and ammunition, and it is not possible to “support” them with units from the “mobiks” (it was here, in the rear, where the unit from Tuva rebelled and was safely recalled to native penates). 

The fighting in the area of Marinka and near Vuhledar moved into a positional stage. In Marinka, it happened due to the exhaustion of the forces of the already sparse Donetsk infantry, near Vuhledar – as a result of the defeat of two brigades (and not only) of the RF Armed Forces, exhausted to the point of losing offensive capabilities.

In other sectors of the front, the situation has not changed over the past two days.

Thaw in Donetsk. After a heavy snowfall. In case the RF Armed Forces decide go on the offensive, they have a maximum of a few days left to start it and 10-20 days (depending on the weather) to complete it before the start of the spring thaw. (As for me, it’s already too late to do anything serious. Yes, and it’s not necessary, since “Vuhledar showed” that with the current degree of training and combat readiness – it is extremely risky for our troops to attack on a large scale).”