Day 371, March 1st. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin broadcast

Posted on 02 March 2023


by Atis

Summary of the livestream with Oleksiy Arestovych, former Ukraine’s Presidential Head of Office advisor, Day 371, March 1st. Kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak

English voice-over video by Privateer Station:

Original video in Russian:

⚡️ China:

A series of sudden anti-china actions from 🇺🇸 U.S. and allies. First – accusing 🇨🇳 China of Covid leak from laboratories. Second – 🇺🇸 U.S. vote on forbidding Tiktok. It seems that this is a warning to 🇨🇳 China against possible involvement in war through weapon supplies.
🇨🇳 China has a huge dis-balance, and any sanctions would be very painful for it. If there is a coalition of 🇨🇳 China, 🇮🇷 Iran, and Russia, it would remain ideological against the West, but not military.
In June, Russia will have a dilemma – either to pay out pensions or continue financing the war. Before June there should be an exhaustion of the existing Russian offensive, and 🇺🇦 Ukraine’s counteroffensive should start. If everything is been planned, and another major player capable of shifting balance joins, it is treated very harshly.
🇧🇾 Lukashenka’s visit to 🇨🇳 China is another unpleasant news for Russia, as he is using it to weaken the leash of Moscow.
Overall 🇨🇳 China is reasonable, and likely won’t get involved in weapon supplies, but everyone is taking a step back from Russia. War is in the last stage, there are only bad and very bad choices for Russia.

⚡️ Fires at Russian airfields

Yeysk airfield in Russia is on the fire during the broadcast, and other airfields had some attacks in the last couple of days. Possibly that’s the work of Ural separatists or partisans. During the security meeting, Putin and Medvedev said that any disagreement (with the unclear objectives of war) would be suppressed.

⚡️ Battlefield update:

Multiple barbaric attacks on civilians – Kherson, Kharkiv, Donetsk districts, civilian casualties. Last night there was an attack with Shahed drones, today several Kh-22 missiles were launched. Tragedies are happening every day.
Kherson: artillery duels
Zaporizhia: relatively quiet
Vuhledar: enemy attempts to advance, with totally humiliating results, they lost over 130 armored vehicles.
Avdiivka, Marinka: enemy attempts to assault, did not succeed.
Bakhmut: enemy advances, heavy battles. Enemy attempts to encircle. The speaker of 🇺🇦 Ukraine eastern group explained that there is no order to retreat, and battles continue. Some unverified reports of 🇺🇦 Ukraine doing a counter-attack.
Kreminna, Kupiansk: unsuccessful enemy attempts

There shouldn’t be any moral or psychological consequences with retreating from Bakhmut – 🇺🇦 Ukraine and the world does understand that it has no significant value, except doing damage to the enemy. When enemy losses cease to be 6-7 times our losses, 🇺🇦 Ukraine should retreat to the next prepared positions allowing it to do the same again.
Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk had much worse – there weren’t Kharkiv and Kherson operations yet, no significant weapon supplies, and uninterrupted enemy shelling for 15 hours a day. Now everyone knows that 🇺🇦 Ukraine is putting the most effort into the preparation of the counter-offensive.

⚡️ Weapons and counter-offensive:

The last package includes drones. A lot of discussions regarding tanks are attempts by Russia to show that tanks can’t be delivered on time.
Arestovych has one very good argument that can’t be disclosed yet, but weapons and counter-offensive preparations are going very well and Russia knows that.
A new experimental 🇩🇪 German air-defense system (Skynex) will be delivered, specifically optimized for shooting drones with programmed shells.
Rumors from the enemy that 🇺🇦 Ukraine supplies are coming for whole battalions (from headquarters to cooks), and there are supplies of tactical-level integrated battle-control systems, allowing faster decision-making, denying the enemy any ability to react. This would mean there are different generations of weapons – like the internet vs steam locomotive.
It feels like everything is ready, waiting for proper weather. Tanks need solid ground to drive the steppe near Zaporizhia, that’s about mid-April. There are no doubts, only pleasant waiting. All weapons will be delivered on time, and everyone except Russia will like this counter-offensive.

⚡️ Moldova:

About 10k pro-Russian activists arrived in 🇲🇩 Moldova, trying to destabilize the government, while Transdnistria is building up defenses. Events in 🇲🇩 Moldova have started, and the number of actions that can be taken is limited.
🇺🇦 Ukraine still offers its support in liberating Transdnistria, it’s up to 🇲🇩 Moldova to decide. It would be a huge blow to Russia, about 3 times harder than liberating Kherson.

⚡️ Nuclear arms reduction treaty:

Russia stopped membership and is using it as blackmail. If there is a new arms race, 🇺🇸 U.S. military industry would be happy, while the Russian economy would fall apart. All of the latest Russian decisions are delirious and don’t make any sense.

The next broadcast is on Friday

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