Summary of the livestream with Oleksiy Arestovych, former Ukraine’s Presidential Head of Office advisor, Day 364, February 22nd. Kindly brought to you by Anastasiya: @Anastasiya1451A
Original video (in Russian):
⚡️ ️Battlefield overview
Bakhmut & Avdiivka
Russia is still attempting to cut supply lines to Bakhmut. Yet, there are reports of Russian forces losing ground near the Konstantinovka-Bakhmut road. Moreover, Russian sources complained about losing ground to the Ukrainian counteroffensive actions near Avdiivka.
No substantial changes near Vuhledar.
Artillery does continue across the Dnipro River, with Ukraine hitting and Russia shelling Ukrainian cities indiscriminately. Russian artillery hit the residential areas of Kherson, killing 6 people on a bus stop.
⚡️ Biden’s visit to Kyiv
Biden’s visit to Kyiv and the following address in Warsaw is symbolic, signalling that the West has a unified position on Ukraine. The support of Ukraine is rock-solid and will continue, with the West helping Ukraine as long as needed for Ukrainian victory.
The Russian populace and elites should understand that it’s Putin who is an aggressor and who wants to continue this war. If he is removed, the war will end, and Russia can have a better future.
⚡️ ️Putin’s aimless speech
Putin has made a pointless address to the Federal Assembly in Moscow, attempting to respond to Biden’s visit to Ukraine and to the anniversary of the war on Ukraine. The speech was devoid of all substance, unable to even promise any economic, military, developmental, and cultural prospects. The Putin’s hysteria about gay marriage in Europe do not motivate Russian soldiers to die at the frontline. The Russian elites at the speech were also not impressed, with many openly sleeping through the address, signalling the loss of respect and fear for Putin.
Arestovych speculates that this may be Putin’s last address to the Russian Federal Assembly.
⚡️ McConnell & GOP
The leader of GOP, Mitch McConnell, acknowledged that the supply of long-range weapons (ATACMS) and aviation (F16) is the next logical step, showing the absolute consensus and determination of the West to help Ukraine win.
This visit will be followed by the visits of the PMs of Italy and Spain.
The decision of helping Ukraine win and rebuild after the war is the new strategy of the collective West and now is only discussing the logistics.
The Russian military bases in occupied Mariupol. HIMARS wouldn’t be used too close to the frontline and are out of range (the distance is 120km). Nevertheless, Ukraine was successful, and the Russian sources are speculating that Ukraine received a new type of rocket and used it here.
⚡️ ️Military aid for Ukraine
Ukraine is getting new types of weapons and more of them. Biden stated that the allies had collected 700 tanks and over 1000 APC. This quantity will be enough to counterattack in two directions and to defend in a third one, which is bad news for Russia.
⚡️ ️Ukrainian counteroffensive
There are rumours of the Western allies hurrying up Ukraine to counterattack. In reality, Ukraine is more than eager to liberate its territories. The liberation of the occupied territories depends only on the weapons supplied and the readiness of units that will operate these new weapons. Ukrainian units receiving new Western equipment will be ready in the second half of the Spring.
⚡️ ️Wagner & Prigozhin
Prigozhin was absent during Putin’s address and there was no mention of Wagner in Putin’s speech, showing how Prigozhin is losing political weight & influence.
The Russian General Staff in charge of logistics are probably still supplying Wagner with ammunition at the same rate as the rest of the army. This is a significant drop from what Wagner used to get when it was privileged & prioritised, allowing it to conduct offensive operations. Now, their old strategy is no longer viable.
The Russian army is experiencing supply problems. One clear sign is the lack of proper footwear, with Russian soldiers and Wagner recruits buying their own and taking the winter boots from the dead.
The new PM of Moldova has condemned Russia for preparing coup d’état and invasion of Moldova (stating that Russia was preparing an invasion of an airport in Moldova).
Moldova is calling for de-militarization and de-occupation of Transnistria from the Russian forces that are threatening the rest of Moldova, peace and sovereignty of the country. Zelensky has already stated that Ukraine can help Moldova upon a request from the Moldovan government. Ukraine has the resources and capacity to do it and, just like the US and Romania, are willing to support Moldovan sovereignty and defend Moldova from Russian aggression.
A Chinese delegation, headed by Wan Yi, arrived in Moscow to discuss the “Chinese peace plan” with Putin who appears to be subservient to Beijing. While China has not taken the Ukrainian side and has influence over the aggressor (Russia).
China has been already warned by both Blinken and Borrell about the catastrophic consequences of supplying deadly weapons to Russia. China wants the end of war and stable trade with the EU and the US, which is a priority for Beijing. Moreover, Beijing understood that the West has already taken a decision and will help Ukraine.
Therefore, China is probably signalling its readiness to participate in the Western plan to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine has already stated the key point of the peace plan and the new security guarantees for Europe. Anything less than the liberation of all Ukrainian territories is unacceptable and will not lead to stable peace, which is a consensus in the West.
️⚡️ Aid to the victims of Russian attack on Kherson
Feygin & Arestovych are collecting money (through their merchandise stores) to help the victims of the Russian artillery attack on a bus stop in Kherson.
Saakashvili’s health is deteriorating and the way that the Georgian Government treats him will determine Georgia’s prospects of integration in the EU and the civilised world. The Western leaders are appealing to the Georgian Government to respect Saakashvili’s human rights and to provide proper medical care to Misha. #SaveMisha
Next stream is on Friday, 24th of February.