Summary of the semi-daily livestream with Oleksiy Arestovych, former Ukraine’s Presidential Head of Office advisor, Day 330, January 19th. Kindly brought to you by Janat: @Janat_H1
⚡️ Munich Security Council
– Feygin:
US President Biden is expected to address Putin and RF citizens during his visit to Warsaw. Munich security council’s message foreshadows what that speech might be about: “Moscow lost and needs to surrender.”
– Arestovych:
Russia could have taken a prominent place in the global arena and participated in the formation of a new, fair world order. Putin chose to take RF citizens hostage and started the largest war since WWII. This led to tectonic changes in global security, and Russia is no longer a global power: Macron called for UN security council reform where RU may not remain a permanent member.
Addressing RF citizens, Biden might say that the new, restructured world order could exclude Russia, but RF citizens still have a chance. They must stop the senseless new offensive and mobilization efforts which will be futile and only result in more deaths. The united world is determined to fight RF until RF is defeated.
Germany’s Foreign Affairs minister Annalena Baerbock stated that Germany would not support the proposal of territorial concessions to Ukraine in exchange for peace with RF. To do otherwise is to condone Russia’s aggression, betray the UN charter, and make the people of Ukraine Russia’s prey. RU must withdraw its troops, then peace talks can begin. The West clearly stated its position to support Ukraine until RF’s defeat. It is up to RF and its president to determine the scale of this catastrophe. Russia can still withdraw its troops, extradite war criminals, pay reparations, and return to the global community, or suffer a catastrophic defeat and be excluded from the new world order.
⚡️ China
China’s Xi plans a ‘peace speech’ on the invasion anniversary, which will not be to Putin’s liking. But the speech will be welcomed by a “peace party” beginning to form behind the scenes in Moscow. This “peace party” can use it to build stronger arguments to win the doubters in RU, presenting the positions of both the West and China.
⚡️ Weapons
The UK pledges to be the first to supply long-range missiles. Sunak said the irony is that all NATO weapons and equipment were always intended for Moscow, so these deliveries are strictly within purpose.
While the UK, US, and Germany do not promise jets, they will support any country that will supply – logistics, training, and maintenance.
⚡️ Frontline Update
Air raids: there were four cruise missile strikes, with two intercepted. There were hits, but the power supply wasn’t interrupted. 16 missile strikes today. Despite heavy losses, RU continues with the offensive in Bakhmut, Kupyansk, Lyman, and Avdiivka directions. MoD of RF reported the capture of Dvorichna, a settlement of 650 people. Ukraine denied.
RU tries to push UA away from Svatove-Kreminna highway, advance toward Lyman and Slovyanks, and encircle Bakhmut. Russia withdraws one artillery regiment from Bakhmut due to heavy losses. RU efforts in the Avdiivka-Maryinka direction resulted in no advances.
Vugledar: RU changed troop concentration and direction of attack but failed. Kherson: artillery exchanges with RU targeting civilian objects and UA targeting military aims.
⚡️ Wagner-MoD Conflict
The rift between the RU private military company and the Army is spilling over into broad information space. Wagnerites shot portraits of generals Lapin and Gerasimov (chief of the general staff). Wagner accuses MoD of not supplying them with ammunition and shot a grim video from the morgue to indicate their losses could have been avoided.
As an authoritarian, centralized state, RU will not tolerate such statements from a field commander. RU doesn’t need the Wagner group inflated into an army. Wagner will become a smaller, tamed, more manageable company for specific missions, for example, in CAR. Its leader Prigzhin will not become a political figure.
⚡️ New Ethics in Politics
Ukraine fights for new ethics from this war to form the basis for postwar world order – Andriy Yermak at Munich Security Conference. This new ethics should include three points: 1) injustice should be unprofitable; 2) injustice must be reprehensible; 3) benefit should be determined only by justice.
⚡️ Russian Offensive
Arestovych called it suicide. The new offensive might last 4-6 weeks and result in devastating losses. The time is just as unfavorable as last year, the army is weakened, with inadequate equipment and troops suffering from low morale. There will be waves of cruise missile attacks. They even might take another small village. But ultimately, everyone in the RU government, army, and society will realize that their political goals cannot be reached with military means. Not clear what this realization will lead to.
Three surprises to expect after this “offensive”:
– It will be much smaller than predicted
– It will be shorter than predicted
– It will create a sense of dead-end and senselessness in everyone in Russia
– Russian people may never know the real scale of the losses, but they will all understand this was pointless.
Putin is preparing a speech before the federal assembly on Feb 21; the next day, he will speak at the Luzhniki stadium in front of the state employees. State Duma invited representatives of South Ossetia, Abkhazia and, possibly, Transnistria to its upcoming gathering. Without much success in Ukraine, Putin might take a compensatory measure and announce these territories as new members of the union state. Moldova and Georgia will have to take a stronger position on that. If this measure is taken, long-range missiles might be supplied by not only UK.
It is unlikely Putin will announce general mobilization. Mobilization never stopped, but RU lacks training grounds and equipment to train its troops.
⚡️ #SaveMisha
Feygin: February 20 – a global campaign in support of the ex-president of Georgia, Saakashvili, will occur in multiple capital cities. We need a wide public response to this initiative worldwide. This issue is being discussed in State Department, and President Biden might address the government of Georgia during his press conference in Warsaw. Georgia faces its biggest defeat in foreign policy if it loses its European integration opportunity.
Next stream Tuesday, Feb 21
