Summary of the livestream with Oleksiy Arestovych, former Ukraine’s Presidential Head of Office advisor, Day 357, February 15th. Kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
Ramstein has become a summary of all announcements made before, it means those can be trusted. The main focus was on tanks, as that’s what has been negotiated since the previous meeting. Aircraft are topic for next meeting. Not everything discussed is being published, and there are plenty of hints – 🇺🇦 Ukraine MoD O. Reznikov did show a handkerchief with jet aircraft.
After the meeting, it was announced that Reznikow will keep the MoD position, which means the results are great.
8 countries are providing Leopard tanks – 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇳🇱 Netherlands. 🇩🇰 Denmark and 🇳🇱 Netherlands won’t be providing Leopard 2, but they took responsibility for servicing and logistics of Leopard 1, which is a significant effort. The goal is to obtain several tank brigades.
🇫🇮 Finland and 🇸🇪 Sweden are considering supplying tanks, after joining NATO.
🇸🇪 Sweden is supplying 51 IFVs, Archer 155mm artillery, and anti-tank weapons.
🇺🇸 U.S. announced contracts for manufacturing 500 million shells for 🇺🇦 Ukraine.
🇩🇪 Germany plans to manufacture ammunition for Gepard anti-aircraft guns, which were previously manufactured in 🇨🇭 Switzerland and had re-export limitations.
🇺🇸 U.S. announced a new package of support of $ 9.9 billion, estimating military funding at least about $2 bn. Pentagon: Allies will help 🇺🇦 Ukraine to prepare and switch to counter-offensive in spring.
Stoltenberg: 🇺🇦 Ukraine definitely will be accepted into NATO.
🇳🇱 Netherlands will supply 20k shells for Leopard 2 tanks.
⚡️ Battlefield update:
Kupiansk-Lyman: traditionally hot place, the enemy has an assault group attempting to advance. Unsuccessful attack attempts on Kupiansk.
Bakhmut: attempts to move on Siversk and cut it off. Most enemy efforts at the north. In the southwest of Bakhmut enemy had some troubles and had to step back a little.
Avdiivka-Marinka: unsuccessful attempts to attack.
Vuhledar: Fantastic destruction of enemy forces, reminding the first month of the war. It is claimed that the famous 155th marines brigade is involved, but likely it only contains some cooks from the original personnel.
Kherson: artillery duels, hospital hit, civilians were wounded. An ambulance depot in Beryslav was hit, and the ambulance driver was wounded.
Multiple civilian buildings were hit with bad consequences.
⚡️ Air strikes:
Today 6 air balloons were noticed near Kyiv, carrying radar reflectors to attempt to locate 🇺🇦 Ukraine’s air defenses. However they were hit by other means, not air defenses they are interested in.
At the same time, Russian propaganda tries to convince that they will do large air strikes on Kyiv, which would be impossible, as Kyiv’s air defenses have increased multiple times since the beginning of the war.
Even at the front Russian air force is not very successful, today Ka-52 was hit, days before a Su-24 and Su25.
During the last day, Russia did 17 air strikes, and 28 MLRS launches.
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s air force did 11 strikes in response at troop concentrations and 5 strikes at enemy air defense locations.
The 10th packet of sanctions published, including some yet unnamed Russian propagandists (they will be revealed on the 24th).
Export bans worth € 11 billion, cutting gray market of dual-use goods – microchip, sensors for missiles and drones
Sanctions against structures of 🇮🇷 Iran, who have been assisting Russia with weapons.
Frozen Russian assets will start to be used for the rebuilding of 🇺🇦 Ukraine, first part is worth $ 36.8 billion, and there is a new working group set up to work on procedures.
Russia published its oil export income, for January it is $13 billion, a little more than in December, but $34 billion less than a year ago.
🇪🇺 E.U. has solved dependence on Russian gas, which was predicted to be impossible a year ago.
🇨🇭 Switzerland introduces a price cap for Russian oil.
By June Russian financial situation should become really sad, and combined with an unsuccessful offensive it should mark the end of the Kremlin’s plans against 🇺🇦 Ukraine.
🇺🇸 Viatris company stopped exports of Viagra to Russia.
During a press conference with 🇺🇸 Lloyd J. Austin, there was mention of weeks instead of months. There is so much talk about the spring offensive, that it’s clear it will happen earlier than everyone expects.
🇬🇧 U.K. reports that 97% of the Russian army is fighting in 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 2/3 of Russia’s tanks are destroyed and their battle capabilities are below 40%. This affects Europe’s security in a positive way.
NATO will relocate 40k soldiers to Europe, and double amount of battle groups (from 4 to 8)
⚡️ Biden-Zelensky meeting:
A meeting likely will be happening in 🇵🇱 Poland, there will be a political evaluation of the war and expression of goals. As usual, there should be new gifts and support. It’s possible, that there will be some ceremony related to giving Patriot missiles or an announcement of relocating more forces to eastern Europe. No big surprises.
Expecting Russia to attempt some answer, but they don’t have many options.
⚡️ Meduza about Abramovych:
At the beginning of the war, several 🇺🇦 Ukrainian officials did recognize Abramovych’s helpfulness in negotiations. Not being in an official position he took part, which means both sides believe him. If Navalny or Patrushev would come to power in Russia, there would be different persons in negotiations.
⚡️ U.S. being informed:
🇺🇸 U.S. is well aware of the capabilities of the Russian army and its command regarding the current offensive, which impacts their decisions. Russia has no perspective, and people will lose their last hopes at approximately May-June. 🇺🇸 U.S., 🇬🇧 U.K., and other officials are discussing prolonged actions in July, which is very unusual to discuss such a far future. This means, there are very serious calculations and background information. Nobody is even afraid of the Russian offensive.
⚡️ Putin’s losses:
Russia has lost everything it built through centuries, starting from Peter I. All their goals are exactly opposite – NATO is closer than ever, the Baltic sea is closed, and advances to West and Central Asia are lost completely. During Stalin, he would have been marked as a British spy, Chinese spy, and Finnish spy, and shot 3 times.