Summary of the livestream with Oleksiy Arestovych, former Ukraine’s Presidential Head of Office advisor, Day 355, February 13th. Kindly brought to you by Stepan: https://twitter.com/childsacrifice1
⚡️ Wagner: PMC Wagner killed another person with a sledgehammer as if it was ISIS. Arestovych would like for the Ukrainian authorities to clarify how exactly prisoners are exchanged with Russia as he is not satisfied with this process that has allowed this to occur twice now. Wagner’s significance on the front is diminishing however they are still fighting in all the main directions, mainly Bakhmut.
⚡️ Battlefield update: The enemy is still concentrating their forces on the Kupyiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions. Enemy attacks were repulsed in Hryanykivka north of Kupyiansk, near Kreminna. Bakhmut is being attacked from all directions. Several enemy attacks in the Siversk salient were also repulsed. The enemy is trying to cut off the Siversk salient, which is critical for success in the Lyman and Bakhmut directions. Despite claims by Wagner, Krasna Hora has not yet fallen. The Russians are having no success in Avdiivka and Vuhledar and some of their units have gone into defense. The overall situation is complicated, especially around Bakhmut/Siversk.
⚡️ Stoltenberg: The head of NATO Jens Stoltenberg said that the Russian offensive has started. He also added that the current stage of the conflict is the logistics phase and the pace of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine should be increased. This will be discussed at the NATO meetings on 14-15 February. President Duda also commented that Russia could win in Ukraine if Kyiv does not receive urgent support from the West. This was said to create buzz before the NATO meetings. However, Ukraine will receive the weapons and Russia will not win.
⚡️ Survey: A survey was carried out in Ukraine for the Munich security conference. 85% of Ukrainians said that Russia retreating to pre-February 2022 borders would not be sufficient cause for peace. 89% would be willing to carry on the war until victory even in the event of a nuclear strike by Russia. The main conclusion that was drawn from this survey was that the united determination of the Ukrainians to defend their democracy is the main reason for the resilience of Ukraine.
⚡️ Sanctions: According to Politico, upcoming sanctions may affect 3 major Russian banks including Alfabank, 130 financial personnel, the exporting of construction equipment from the EU, and the importing of bitumen from Russia. A ban on the exporting of Russian diamonds is also being discussed. Ukraine has accused Russia of deliberate sabotage of the grain deal as the rate of inspections of ships is deliberately sabotaged.
⚡️ Negotiations and Belarus: The Hungarian foreign minister visited Belarus and phrased Hungary’s desire for Negotiations in Ukraine. Columbia, Brazil and Argentina also announced their support for negotiations. Lukashenko also spoke to the CSTO implying that Belarus will eventually have to get involved in the conflict. The governments of France, Canada and Brazil (?) called for their citizens to leave Belarus. Arestovych believes this is a warning to Belarus or any other CSTO countries that war may break out on their home soil if they decide to get involved in Ukraine.
⚡️ India: India has halted talks with Russia concerning the purchase of new fighter jets and helicopters. This shows that the world is assessing the performance of Russian weapons on the battlefield. India refusing to buy weapons would be a very major blow to the Russian defense industry.