Summary of the livestream with Oleksiy Arestovych, former Ukraine’s Presidential Head of Office advisor, Day 350, February 8th. Kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
⚡️ Zelensky’s visit to London:
Looks like 🇺🇦 Ukraine and the west have come to a method of announcing new weapons. It starts with some speeches from officials, and leaks to the media, slowly building up and culminating with a high-level announcement. Also note, that 🇬🇧 UK MoD did say, that Challenger tanks will be in 🇺🇦 Ukraine in March, despite previously announced delivery was “sometime in summer”. This is part of a slow cascade-like information release, it allows to set the mood and build a narrative without giving opponents (internal and external) a chance to react. Each day there are 7-8 announcements, each with a varying result (perhaps, perhaps not, perhaps later, pilots training, etc), but there is no strong message to build counter-propaganda against. There is no doubt that aircraft will be given, perhaps at the next Ramstein meeting on February 14th.
⚡️ Putin’s fate:
Investigators called Putin responsible for shooting Boeing MH17 in 2014. This signals that the west has chosen an exit strategy, and Putin is sentenced. This wasn’t mentioned and was quite unimaginable 3-4 months ago at the previous court session. Likely this is the result of behind-the-scenes talks with Putin, where he did show his stubbornness. Simultaneously highest western officials were allowed to mention Crimea as 🇺🇦 Ukraine’s territory, agreeing to attacks there.
Crimea is Putin’s largest achievement, losing it would lose him his throne. This means, the west is prepared for the military reaction to attempts of using nuclear weapons – otherwise there wouldn’t be permission to strike Crimea, it’s all calculated and already decided. The speed of announcements and weapon supplies confirm this – there is a clear scenario of war.
Russia’s offensive will fail, they can possibly capture a couple of cities and advance some 10, 20, or 30 km. It is unlikely Russia will be able to recruit the next 300k soldiers. In addition economic (and political) crisis will start somewhere from the end of April to July. The west has clearly calculated this.
By April, it will be clear that the Russian offensive has failed. There will be one or two very hurtful 🇺🇦 Ukrainian offensives, approaching Crimea and hitting strategic warehouses and airfields there.
At that point nuclear war is unfeasible, there is no economics, no forces to capture territory after nuclear strikes. 3 bombs won’t change anything, they need to use 50 to achieve some result. The use of nuclear weapons would also turn 🇮🇳 India and 🇨🇳 China against Russia.
At some point there would be an evaluation of “No military solution”, leading to the removal of Putin.
⚡️ Korean scenario:
Another wave of panic, because Arestovych did discussion of Korean scenario for 🇺🇦 Ukraine as a worst-case scenario (which is normal to plan for in war), and it still turns out advantageous for 🇺🇦 Ukraine. Of course, the discussion is immediately cut into smaller fragments without context and included in Russian propaganda.
⚡️ Russian distractions:
There can’t be any large-scale surprise attack in the 11th month of the war. Perhaps at tactical or tactical-operational level (up to 50-100km of front line). All concentration of forces are visible, and the enemy knows they are visible, they need distractions, thus all the rumors about attacks elsewhere – Kyiv, Kherson, etc. There are serious journalists, who believe that the Russian army will swim across the Dnipro river under the attack of HIMARS, and capture Kherson from low ground to high ground. For example, there was an air strike on Chernihiv, usage of a diversion-reconnaissance group – this is to create propaganda of possible attack in the north, perhaps even crossing the border to force 🇺🇦 Ukraine to relocate forces there.
🇺🇦 Ukraine made 21 air strikes per day, compared to 9 previously to disrupt enemy intent. Stopping enemy intent is at the third level by Sun Tzu, while Russia is at the first level – attacking 🇺🇦 Ukraine’s strongholds.
There are multiple missile strikes at 🇺🇦 Ukraine’s rear in Bakhmut direction, for example, Sloviansk. A total of 38 airstrikes 40 MLRS launches, and multiple civilians were killed. Attacks where 🇺🇦 Ukraine’s rear forces and logistics are located means that Russia is doing attacks in depth, and an offensive is happening. 🇺🇦 Ukraine does similar attacks in depth as a counter-offensive, a classic scenario.
Distraction attacks are at Zaporizhia, Sumy, and Chernihiv, expecting distractions from 🇧🇾 Belarus too. The real offensive will be localized from Kupiansk-Svatove to Vuhledar with a main focus on Svatove-Lyman and Bakhmut. There is a smaller group near Vuhledar, but rumors of 🇺🇦 Ukraine doing a counter-attack. There is no large third group for another offensive.
⚡️ Kidnapped children:
There is a known amount of 13-15k children, but the total is estimated about 150k kidnapped and moved to Russia. Recently two refugees children were sent from 🇦🇹 Austria to Russia on orders of Josef Ziegele, a general secretary of the European Ombudsman Institute [link https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/european-ombudsman-institute-accused-of-sending-ukrainian-children-from-austria-to-russia ]. 🇦🇹 Austria has started an investigation.
⚡️ Russian youth:
40% of Russian youth want to leave, which gives a lot of hope to everyone, that this is a war of the older generation, a war to change Russia.
⚡️ Mikheil Saakashvili:
President of 🇬🇪 Georgia issued a statement, trying to solve Saakashvili’s issues after a court ruled to keep him in prison. Ice has started moving, phone calls are made in the background. Protests in European capitals are planned for the 20th of February.