Summary of the livestream with Oleksiy Arestovych, former Ukraine’s Presidential Head of Office advisor, Day 348, February 6th. Kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
⚡️ Wagner now terrorists:
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine voted to recognize PMC Wagner as a terrorist organization. This can now be asked of other countries. The 🇺🇸 U.S. has currently recognized Wagner as a criminal organization. A terrorist organization is usually outside the law, and there can be more actions taken against it. Expecting actions to be taken against their partners and agents in Syria and several African countries.
⚡️ Rosatom sanctions:
🇪🇺 European Parliament voted to stop using uranium nuclear fuel from Russia. Rosatom’s income from Europe was about € 100 bn/year. Rosatom is building nuclear power plants in 🇭🇺 Hungary and 🇹🇷 Turkey, which will become problematic.
Planned sanctions include:
— stop any contracts on enriching or reprocessing nuclear fuel
— freeze new contracts on constructing nuclear power plants
— exclude Rosatom from global energy deals
— establish control on investments related to Rosatom
— exclude Rosatom from any international research agreements
— decrease dependence at existing plants, replacements by 🇫🇷 France and 🇺🇸 U.S.
Both of those topics are significant enough, for extra live-stream, they present huge changes in attitude. The schedule of streams is now changed to weekly unless there are important news happening.
⚡️ 10th pack of sanctions:
The next pack of sanctions should be approved on the 24th of February, the yearly anniversary of the war. It would close most of the loopholes that are being abused. For example, microchip export started to raise recently. Hopefully, sanctions against Rosatom will be implemented there. Some of the loopholes are due to 🇭🇺 Orban and corruption. However, Europe has proven already twice, that it can make 🇭🇺 Hungary cooperate.
🇯🇵 Japan joined fixed max oil products price, it would now buy fuel from 🇮🇳 India and 🇨🇳 China, which gets to buy crude oil even below production cost, just so that Russia doesn’t have to stop production and it gets at least some foreign currencies. Profit from this stays with 🇮🇳 India and 🇨🇳 China. Currently, fixed prices are $45 per barrel of oil and $100 per barrel of diesel. Prices will be reviewed every 2 months, and are likely to tighten.
⚡️ Russian budget deficit:
For January, the deficit makes up 10% of the yearly plan, and the reason for that is a sudden rise in expenses combined with a sudden drop in income. Today Russian Ministry of Finance started selling small amounts of gold, which is unseen in recent history. This means, sanctions are showing their delayed effect, which is very important in decreasing military efforts.
⚡️ Battlefield update:
🇺🇦 Ukraine General Staff published the direction of the main Russian offensive – that is Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Novopavlivka (Vuhledar) – it is slowly starting with regrouping in the rear, creation of 2nd and 3rd echelons, creation of rear reserves and headquarters at depth of 90km (to stay out of HIMARS range for now).
There will be no offensive on Kyiv, and none of the western embassies is considering evacuation. Some provocations in the north are possible, but there are no forces to reach even 5km depth.
The main objectives will be to cut off Siversk and encircle Bakhmut.
Multiple bombings by Russia, 1 civilian killed, 1 wounded in last day.
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s air force did 9 strikes.
In the last 2 days 🇺🇦 Ukraine did 2 large hits in Nova Kahovka, dozens of vehicles, and dozens of enemy soldiers were destroyed.
Rogue reports of 🇺🇦 Ukraine forces doing counterattacks today near road Konstantynivka-Bakhmut in direction of Klishchiivka did push back at some locations. There is maneuver defense.
Bakhmut positions are ideal for grinding enemy forces, Russia is taking incredible losses. From a military perspective, one or two such positions are totally worth it. It can be compared to Donetsk Airport, which was held for 242 days, and the ratio of enemy losses was 10-15 to one.
⚡️ New Ukrainian units:
New 🇺🇦 Ukraine brigades did receive 9000 volunteer sign-ups in a week (that’s 3 out of 8 planned brigades).
🇫🇷 France will supply 2 medium range radars to be used with SAMP-T air defense provided by 🇮🇹 Italy, which will allow 🇺🇦 Ukraine to intercept ballistic missiles.
⚡️ Seized assets:
🇺🇦 Ukraine seized the property of Russian Mikhail Shelkov valued at approximately € 50 million – a mining factory, 2 apartments, investments in 4 companies, 19 vehicles, and money. A couple of days before the war started, the factory was transferred to Ukrainian women at price 3000 times lower than its value. This is the first precedent when a property is seized from false holders.
⚡️ Prigozhin and Wagner:
Prigozhin is now making bold moves because nobody is even treating him seriously. That’s the only way, how he can stay in control, otherwise, he will be made the underdog. It’s a one-way road and is causing disgust in Russia’s hierarchical structure.
The size of Wagner is decreasing due to several reasons:
— they did not fulfill Putin’s desperate hopes
— Prigozhin broke all possible laws of behavior
— the military doesn’t like them, due to conflicts and personal insults
— there is not much recruitment potential left, the military can also now recruit prisoners, but not many will choose Wagner.
— they are useless for foreign operations, as members will be arrested anywhere in transit
⚡️ Mikheil Saakashvili:
Court declined treatment outside prison.
Planning for protests around the world on the 20th of February, 12:00 at local parliament or government buildings, to put international pressure on 🇬🇪 Georgia