Summary of the semi-daily livestream with Oleksiy Arestovych, former Ukraine’s Presidential Head of Office advisor, Day 332, January 21st. Kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
⚡️ Russian info-war:
A part from #Arestovych interview was taken out of context in an attempt to show “🇺🇦Ukraine losing war”. A response:
– 🇺🇦Ukraine will not lose the war
– It has become harder to win the war, because Putin doesn’t want to lose, and is taking extreme measures, for example, a month ago there were 210k 🇷🇺 Russian soldiers, and now it’s 320k.
– the objective of removing all 🇷🇺 Russian soldiers from the territory of 🇺🇦 Ukraine depends on western supplies, their quantity, quality, and being on time and long-term will, which is what 🇷🇺 Russians have had for centuries.
– recently a large number of local conflicts appeared, which are obviously created and coordinated by 🇷🇺 Russia. War needs all and interrupted attention, and Arestovych asks everyone to avoid conflicts.
– Western leaders note the importance of the next few months and are attempting to achieve more on-time supplies.
– The broadcast, where Arestovych said this quote, is devoted to the structure of post-war 🇷🇺 Russia after it has lost.
– In the 11th month of the war, some pro-Ukrainian people suddenly start quoting Solovyov.
⚡️ Denys Kiryryev:
A double agent Kiryryev was killed, the version published by WSJ is supported by pro-Russian blogger A. Shariy, which makes it clear of his intentions to disrupt the work of SBU general Poklad. Poklad had several injuries during this war, which only proves his loyalty to 🇺🇦 Ukraine. This is not the last scandal, there is sudden raise in intensity, which means 🇷🇺 Russia is following Gerasimov’s doctrine – which states that hybrid war should emphasize informational-psychological operations, and disable or discredit key figures.
About 25% 🇺🇦 Ukrainians are getting tricked by provocations, resonating small political problems in face of a large 🇷🇺 Russian offensive.
🇺🇦 Ukraine is invincible, while it is united. All 🇷🇺 Russian propaganda now is focused on destroying this unity. There are insane versions, like “Arestovych made a statement about Dnipro, fled to 🇷🇺 Russia, and there revealed flight plan of MIA helicopter, which was then hit by 🇷🇺 Russia”.
Expecting the next attacks to be directed at Reznikov. There are way too many personalized attacks in the last 3 days.
As for Kiryryev, there is an ongoing investigation, it won’t be fast. Involvement of A. Shariy made everything clear.
⚡️ Ramstein meeting:
It was unsuccessful to achieve supplies of Leopard 2 tanks, observers were expecting at least 100 tanks to be supplied.
🇩🇪 Germany did not decide yet. 🇵🇱 Poland and 🇺🇸 U.S. immediately commented, reassuring that 🇺🇦 Ukraine will obtain everything necessary and on-time. 🇺🇦 Ukraine needs to obtain tanks before spring.
The publicly announced list of weapons at Ramstein is 1/3 less than previously published, but it’s still enough to create more than 3 mechanized brigades, or about 1 army corps, it’s a significant amount for 🇺🇦 Ukraine’s defense and counter-offensive.
🇩🇪 Germany’s former minister of defense Lambrecht had forbidden to check the inventory of existing tanks.
Now likely all blame goes to the previous minister while leaving holes in this logic. If the previous minister were to blame for stopping supplies, why Leopard 2 tanks are still not supplied? There is no proof in members of 🇩🇪 German parliament being corrupt with 🇷🇺 Russian money, however, 🇷🇺 Russia does influence public opinion through propaganda.
However 🇩🇪 Germany did provide € 1 billion worth of assistance instead of tanks, including the latest IRIS-T air defense systems.
Arestovych is sure, that 🇩🇪 Germany will overcome the veto, and allow the supply of tanks. This is an internal political process, that must be finished, not because they are afraid of 🇷🇺 Russia. Even training of tank crews has begun, which means tanks should follow soon.
⚡️ Battlefield update:
Zaporizhia: about 26 BTGs concentrated in two echelons, such structure can be used for both offense and defense.
Orikhiv, Vuhledar: some movements, the enemy wants to push 🇺🇦 Ukrainian artillery further away from the rail line Volnovakha-Tokmak, which is used to supply all southern front.
Kherson: enemy doing some minor reinforcing and attempts to land on islands to create distractions, but they can still quickly relocate to Melitopol if necessary.
Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Soledar, Kreminna: enemy doing tactical/operational regrouping, reinforcements, creating second and third echelons, rear headquarters, increase artillery and probing 🇺🇦 Ukrainian defense. This is not offensive yet but can help to choose a location for the offense.
A big offensive is when there is massive artillery and aviation bombing combined with assault. Most front-line has just disturbing actions, Soledar, Bakhmut, Zaporizhia are under assault. Yesterday enemy had limited success in 2 locations, but later was pushed back.
🇺🇦 Ukraine needs to keep calm and focused. People are tired and start to believe enemy propaganda. Do not believe the news about attacks on Zaporizhia.
🇺🇸 U.S. acknowledges joint planning of operations to liberate Crimea.
Strategy is Geography, and there are not many places to make a decisive strike. 🇷🇺 Russia puts a lot of effort into creating defense in the south, so this is not a surprise to anyone.
🇲🇩 Moldova is considering a path to NATO
Dmitry Kozak is considered to lead 🇷🇺 Accounts Chamber of Russia [financial control]. He is known for provocations and being openly rude in Normandy contact group meetings with 🇫🇷 France and 🇩🇪 Germany [peace talks for Donbas 2014-2022].
⚡️ Moscow air-defense:
Several Pantsir air-defense vehicles have been put on roofs in 🇷🇺 Moscow. A day before, 🇷🇺 Russian representative in 🇺🇳 U.N. said that placing air defense in the city should be considered a war crime.
⚡️ Oil price:
Fixed oil prices will get reviewed in March. Considered options are $60 and $45, currently, the price is at $60 per barrel. If the price is set at $45, 🇷🇺 Russian budget will have significant issues by May 2023.
⚡️ Iranian drones investigation:
There is no doubt of drone origin, but the proof is still being collected.
Larionov: lend-lease is not preferred by 🇺🇦 Ukraine, because the equipment will have to be returned after the war.
Arestovych: Lend-lease is not related to equipment, it is a procedure. If it’s still not used, then likely other procedures are more efficient. The current amount of supplies is huge, that’s all that matters.
Conclusion – not knowing all factors, it’s unfair to speculate. The presidential office makes puts significant efforts to obtain and plan weapon supplies.