Summary of the semi-daily livestream with Oleksiy Arestovych, former Ukraine’s Presidential Head of Office advisor, Day 330, January 19th. Kindly brought to you by Anastasiya: @Anastasiya1451A
Original video in Russian:
⚡️️Battlefield overview
Russia keeps attacking Bahmut, resulting in heavy losses and an increasing number of Russian POWs. Russia is regrouping in other parts of the frontline, but the reinforcements are not numerous (1-2 BTG). Ukraine is defending its current positions, exhausting Russian forces and accumulating resources for the next counteroffensive.
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⚡️Bahmut, Soledar, Avdiivka & Mariinka
Heavy battles continue near Bahmut. Russia has concentrated its regular troops, elite Wagner troops and mobilized near Bahmut. Ukrainian infantry is keeping the defence perimeter and the number of Russian POWs is increasing lately, suggesting that Russian infantry attacks are failing.
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⚡️Zaporizhzhja
Russia is trying to move Ukrainian forces near Orehiv, as Ukrainian artillery is controlling important routes, crippling Russian logistics.
⚡️️Kreminna
Ukraine continues tactical battles, approaching Kreminna.
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⚡️Belarus
Russia is training its personnel in Belarus. While Ukraine is preparing for potential attacks from Belarus, there is no indication of an immediate attack (while provocations are still possible).
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⚡️Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities
Russia keeps attacking Ukrainian cities, targeting residential areas. Kherson city was once again shelled by Russian artillery, resulting in the death of civilians.
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⚡️Unprecedented military aid to Ukraine & upcoming Ramstein meeting
International pressure on Germany to supply or at least authorize the transfer of Leopard tanks to Ukraine is mounting. Poland has stated that they “will receive the approval from Berlin for the transfer or will do the right thing anyway”, which is another incentive to Scholz to proceed with the transfer.
Following the Davos forum and just before the next Ramstein meeting, the Western countries are increasing their military aid to Ukraine. The so-far announced list of equipment is already unprecedented.
So far, the UK, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Denmark and Poland announced new military aid packages to Ukraine.
The number and the nomenclature indicate that the West is not only correctly assessing the situation and the danger of the next, and “ultimate”, Russian attack, but is also aiding Ukraine to prepare a counteroffensive. The Western military-industrial complex has been restored and the main objective of the West is to help Ukraine win.
There might be additional equipment that More announcements are to be expected from the upcoming Ramstein meeting on Friday, the 20th of January.
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⚡️Kremlin preparing for Russia’s defeat
The Kremlin has already reacted with pointless media hysteria and propaganda. In particular, Medvedev has stated that “a military defeat of a nuclear power nation is dangerous for the world”. This prompted immediate clarification from Peskov, Kremlin’s spokesperson, who said that Medvedev “didn’t mean to threaten anyone with nuclear weapons”.
While Russian panic is an expression of internalization of the prospect of defeat, the West knows that Russia is losing.
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⚡️Crimea is Ukraine
The US has stated that not only Crimea is part of Ukrainian territory and any Russian military bases in it are a legitimate target, but also declared its support to Ukraine in the liberation of Crimea from the Russian invaders.
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⚡️Davos meeting & rebuilding of Ukraine
The main focus of the Western strategy must not be the appeasement of Putin but aid to Ukraine. The Western politicians in the Davos forum advocated for arming Ukraine to help it win the war that Russia started.
The West has understood that appeasement is the worst strategy and realised the historical parallel between Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and Hitler’s invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938. Putin will not stop and thus he must be stopped and Ukraine must win.
The Davos forum also housed a discussion among the main world banks that are signalling their willingness to invest in Ukraine, rebuild and develop Ukraine after the war, with the preparation starting now. For this future, Ukraine must first win, which is inbuilt into the new security strategy for Europe.
Further discussion of rebuilding Ukraine (after the Lugano forum) will continue in London and Vilnius this summer.
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⚡️European Parliament: special tribunal to punish Russian war crimes
The European Parliament adopted a resolution to establish a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war criminals for crimes of aggression in Ukraine. This is a clear sign to the Russian regime and also to Lukashenko that war criminals and their enablers will be punished.
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⚡️IAEA & nuclear safety
IAEA inspectors will establish a permanent mission in all Ukrainian nuclear power plants to increase safety and prevent potential Russian nuclear blackmail. The IAEA inspectors are already at the Rivne and Chornobyl NPP and must also get access to the Zaporizhzhja NPP temporarily occupied by the Russian invaders.
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⚡️Iran & Serbia recognise the territorial integrity of Ukraine
Both Iranian and Serbian Governmental officials stated that they recognise Ukrainian territorial integrity and reject Russian claims to the 4 temporary (and partially) occupied Ukrainian regions and Crimea. This is not only a reflection of the international pressure on Iran [from Israel, Saudis and Turkey] and Serbia [which is aspiring to join the EU], but also a clear indication that both Iran and Serbia understand that Russia lost.
The US state secretary Blinkin is going to visit China (in early February), which is always a bad omen for Russia.
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⚡️Kremlin in zugzwang
The Kremlin will attempt to mobilise another 300k Russians to use them as cannon fodder. Soon, these 300k will be gone either in an attempt to attack or as a result of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, leading to the need of mobilising more Russians. Yet, everyone is aware of Russian logistical problems, lack of equipment, officers and training. Moreover, Ukrainian reserves, training and armament are increasing with time, unlike Russia’s.
The West is not scared of the next Russian attack, as, at this point, Russia cannot win. In fact, every move (attack, dig in or wait) will only bring more problems to the Kremlin’s regime. In some time, the Kremlin will arrive at the inevitable conclusion that their objectives have no military solution, indicating the failure and the beginning of the end of the regime.
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⚡️Resistance & infighting in Russia
Popular discontent and anxiety are increasing in Russia. Arestovych reminds everyone in Russia who is ashamed and terrified of the Kremlin’s actions that they shouldn’t agree or collaborate with the Kremlin’s criminal regime – resist, sabotage, do not cooperate or, at least, disagree.
The increasing conflict within Russian elites, like the tensions between Prigozhin, the Presidential administration and the Russian military command can also escalate. In the best-case scenario, they will kill each other faster than anyone expects.
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⚡️Fundraising for victims of the Russian attack on Dnipro
The profit from Feygin & Arestovych merchandise stores is being transferred to Ukrainians that suffered from Russian aggression and war on Ukraine. The latest transfer has been made to the victims of the Russian missile attack on the residential building in Dnipro, so far about $11 000. [part of receipts is enclosed]
Next stream is on Saturday, 21st of January.
