Summary of the semi-daily livestream with Oleksiy Arestovych, Ukraine’s Presidential Head of Office advisor, Day 325, January 14th. Kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
🔥 Missile attack:
Total 33 missiles launched, 21 intercepted. In the morning Kyiv and Kharkiv were shelled by modified S-400, total 4 explosions. Then 10 Kalibr missiles and 21 winged missiles, from which 5 Kh-59 (tactical level, 200-300km) and 5 Kh-22 (600km).
One of those Kh-22 then hit an apartment building in Dnipro. 72 apartments in that section.
This shows, 🇷🇺 russia is having shortage of accurate missiles, yet missile attacks won’t stop – they will be smaller. This is a significant decrease from 100/70/50 previously.
The interception rate is less than usual today, because 🇷🇺 attacked unusual targets. Everything launched at Kyiv was intercepted.
Ballistic missiles (S-300/S-400) weren’t intercepted, their flight time is about 40 seconds, however 🇷🇺 has very few launchers and few modified missiles for land-land attacks. Distance is also a significant factor, so Kharkiv will get more attacks, Kyiv less, but they will continue.
Too early to see if a change of 🇷🇺 military command would change anything in missile attacks, this attack was prepared for 2 weeks.
Battles ongoing. Wagner makes up 1/3 of the attacking forces, another 1/3 is paratroopers (including 50% draftees), last 1/3 of draftees are from Donetsk and Luhansk.
If Soledar gets captured, 🇷🇺 will continue on Krasna Hora and Paraskoviivka to cut off the road from Sloviansk. Then 🇷🇺 would move on Yahidne, and from Klishchiivka to Ivanivske to encircle Bakhmut. This is a well-known method and doesn’t bring any surprise to 🇺🇦 Ukraine. 🇷🇺 doesn’t have enough forces to put identical pressure on both Bakhmut and Soledar, despite them being 10km apart, while 🇷🇺 is focusing on Soledar, Bakhmut defense is easier. If NATO would join the war now, 🇷🇺 army would last for 3 hours.
🔥 Battlefield update:
Kherson: artillery duels, 🇷🇺 slowly reinforcing
Tokmak and surroundings- Mykhailivka, Vasylivka, Melitopol slowly reinforcing .
Vuhledar – positional war.
Marinka, Opytne – 🇷🇺 unsuccessfully attempting to advance.
Krasnohorivka, Vesele, Kamianka – at this speed 🇷🇺 should keep for 150 years.
Bakhmut, Soledar – 🇷🇺 advancing.
Spirne, Berestove, Lower Bilohorivka – the same actions as before (nothing significant)
Kreminna – opposing actions, 🇷🇺 attempting on Dibrova, while 🇺🇦 pushing on Kreminna.
🇺🇦 MFA Kuleba: 5 countries want to provide Leopard 2 tanks to 🇺🇦 Ukraine.
Likely 🇩🇪 Germany just doesn’t want to be first to allow Main Battle Tanks to be sent to 🇺🇦 Ukraine.
🇬🇧 U.K. providing Challenger 2 tanks, other countries expressing the will to participate. The likely main force will be Leopard 2, as it’s best suited and easy to maintain.
There are various numbers rumored, from battalion (30 tanks) to brigade (70-100 tanks). A tank brigade arriving at any direction of front does change situation there radically.
Unfortunately, there are commanders that like to split brigades and assign 2 tanks to each platoon, not making any significant difference. There is even a military term – concentration of forces.
Leopard 2 has an excellent fire-control system, night-vision for everyone including the driver.
All western vehicles (Leopard 2, Marder, Bradley) are well equipped for night battles, much better than 🇷🇺 Russian tanks.
After initial supplies, training, and creation of service infrastructure – there will be expansion.
🔥 Ramstein meeting:
Weapon supplies are done in a planned manner. Large emotional tragedies, like Dnipro, only help to swing decisions in case of doubts.
🔥 U.N. General Assembly:
Unknown if Zelensky will attend in person. There will be speech, if not in person, then online. Even if Zelensky attends, he will want to return fast, there are fierce battles expected at this time.
🔥 New command:
Only 2 days under new command, no new plans were noticeable. Possible attack on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia as flanks of Donetsk/Luhansk. Possible some provocations in the north, just to scare everyone of a possible offensive, and force 🇺🇦 Ukraine to deploy more forces in the north.
🔥 Next mobilization:
🇬🇧 U.K. intelligence reports that 🇷🇺 could draft 500k solders. Unclear where to obtain 70k sergeants and 60k junior officers. Weapons, food, equipment, and training would be significant issues. All this in parallel with using the current 200k draftees could be too complicated for 🇷🇺 Russian military.
All this is typical 🇷🇺 Russian bluff. Currently, a typical 🇷🇺 brigade looks like this: instead of a tank battalion, there is a tank company. Instead of 30 APCs, there are 10. Much other equipment is missing. The intensity of 🇷🇺 shelling has decreased by at least 1/3rd, ammo supplies are very limited.
🇹🇷 Erdogan intends to push for a local cease-fire in 🇺🇦 Ukraine, but not in the next couple of months. Various other announcements, denial of sending cluster bombs. 🇹🇷 Turkey receives a significant discount for natural gas, with options to delay payments for up to a year, so this rhetoric is to keep getting those discounts. There are elections soon, and Erdogan needs to keep image of protecting national interests. 🇹🇷 Turkey’s assistance to 🇺🇦 Ukraine is visible in the grain deal, prisoners exchange, significant military aid. 🇺🇦 Ukraine respects 🇹🇷 Turkey defending their national interests and assistance.
🔥 Anti-war attitude:
Actor Dmitry Nazarov has been fired from theatre after an anti-war speech. On the 28th of February anti-war protests had 136k participants. There have been many actors opposing (and some supporting Putin), this is a choice of conscience. Those people are very brave, choosing to oppose, even knowing that they will lose everything.
Even after 22 years in Putin’s regime, there are people standing up and saying that he is not right. Many have not survived this, yet every time there are people standing up.
Live streams are now approximately every other day, the next broadcast on Tuesday, January 17th.