Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Janat: @Janat_H1
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
🔥 Battlefield update
Jan 7 is Orthodox Christmas; Putin’s ceasefire lasted about 30 minutes. A family was killed in Kherson as a result of shelling. Several people are wounded.
Heavy fighting in the area. Soledar is in a semi-encirclement by the enemy. The situation is difficult but controlled by UA. Rumors of Soledar being taken by RU are fake. The enemy tries to cut Soledar off from Bakhmut in the south and Slovyansk in the north.
The enemy is advancing with heavy losses. Arestovych refers to the recent photo of a field near Bakhmut covered with scattered bodies of RU troops. RU has lost an estimated 80,000 killed and wounded by trying to take these two cities.
Wagner group is not unlike ISIS but coming out of Orthodoxy, not Islam: same code, principles, and logic; same dehumanization and suicidal attacks, and Wagner will end the same way as ISIS.
RU hopes to advance toward Lyman/Yampil but will not succeed.
RU stands in the defense. UA hit a concentration of troops and military equipment and a commanding post in Tokmak.
🔥 Other directions
Kherson: exchange of artillery fire. Kharkiv, Dnipro – regular shelling by RU.
Regarding the recent transfer of Russian units to Belarus: there are no signs of preparation for invasion. Instead, ammunition is transferred from Belarus to Donetsk. Troops are stationed at training camps in Belarus before they, too, are transferred to Donetsk.
🔥 Next Counter-Offensive
Recent deliveries include a lot of armored vehicles. This could be a sign of UA’s counteroffensive but not imminently. UA needs time to accumulate resources; some promised deliveries will take time; due to mobilization, RU has managed to accumulate its resources faster and will likely attack first. Thus, UA will have to stop RU’s offensive, then begin its counter-offensive.
UA Gen Staff believes RU will attack in Luhansk/Donetsk regions and possibly include Kharkiv and Zaporizhye regions as the flanks. This is widely discussed with Western partners.
UA cannot accumulate enough resources for a counteroffensive because of 1) slow weapon deliveries and 2) resources required for Bakhmut/Soledar defense.
RU mobilized 200,000 troops and is training them for its second offensive. The next wave of mobilization will be needed to replace these 200,000 troops. They will be trained and transferred to the front in May-July 2023 for the third offensive. Unlike the first wave, these mobilized will have more time for training.
🔥 Orthodox Christmas services
Putin and the priest are seen alone during the Christmas eve service video. No other worshippers are present. Meanwhile, in Kyiv, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) leads a historic service in Pechersk Lavra, previously the place of worship for the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC). UOC was prohibited from worshiping there for 300 years.
Official ROC has long been a government branch in RU, offering ideological support since Stalin’s regime. Moscow Patriarchate churches in UA have been loyal to Moscow with its imperial ideology and saw no future without Russia.
There are several official branches of Christianity in Ukraine: Orthodox, Catholic, and Protestant. The transition of Ukrainian orthodox priests and worshippers from Moscow Patriarchate churches to Ukrainian churches must be done carefully, without extremes in either direction, so as not to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
Ukraine imposed sanctions against 119 Russian and Ukrainian pop figures who propagate Kremlin ideology: the list will be recommended to Western sanctions authorities.
An American senator visiting Kyiv was amazed at the quality of accounting for the delivered US weapons. France is the first to announce deliveries of heavily armored vehicles.
The collective West changed its attitude towards the war, allocating a record package of military assistance to Ukraine of 3 billion USD. The publicized items from the new package are Paladin howitzers, Sea Sparrow missiles for modified Ukrainian air defense systems, Bradleys, armored personnel carriers, anti-tank missiles, ammunition, etc.
The nomenclature reflects two main objectives for UA: to stop the RU offensive and to begin the counteroffensive. This is the first time in 11 months that Ukraine’s needs are synchronized with Western deliveries. Western countries compete for military contracts; France and Germany are sometimes ahead of the United States in the supply of heavy weapons.
Many NATO countries are increasing ammunition production while RU is experiencing an ammunition shortage. Earlier in the war, they used 45,000-60,000 shells per day.
The West will continue to supply weapons to Ukraine increasingly. Even if Russia mobilizes five mln people, they will not be able to stand against modern western weapons.
From mid-April to June 2023, Ukraine will accumulate resources, while RU’s ammo deficit will be the worst. This will be the time for UA’s counteroffensive that will outshine the Kharkiv operation.
Next Ramstein meeting is on Jan 20. The results will show what to expect for the rest of winter and spring, even the beginning of summer.
The next stream is on Tuesday, January 10.