Day 316, January 5th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast

Posted on 06 January 2023

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by Atis

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis:ย @savaadaak

English voice-over video byย Privateer Station:

Original video in Russian:

๐Ÿ”ฅ Cease-fire proposal:

The only beneficiary of proposal is ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Erdogan, likely he will get some discount to gas price.
Zelensky did offer cease-fire for catholic Christmas in December.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Ukraine now wants to continue the war, until all occupiers are gone from ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Ukraine land. After that, there can be cease-fire.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S. and ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ E.U. expressed distrust to cease-fire proposal.
From military perspective, a day of cease-fire won’t allow any regrouping or other actions, it is purely diplomatic trap, to create accusations.
There won’t be any cease-fire.
Beriev A-50 airborne radar & control did arrive to ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus, apparently ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ is preparing another wave missile and drone attacks instead of cease-fire.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Battlefield update:

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ started reinforcing Zaporozhye, Bakhmut-Soledar, Lyman directions with approximately 10k draftees having some limited training during last 2-3 months. They will slowly accumulate and attempt offensive.
Zelensky is discussing with international partners about options to make this offensive the last one.
There are 3 possible scenarios – North and everywhere, Kharkiv-Zaporozhye-Donetsk-Luhansk and most sober – Donetsk-Luhansk. Likely ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ will only attempt sending 200k at Donetsk-Luhansk, but the quality of those 200k is much lower than of regular army.
Tokmak: location with some 80 ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ solders hit. Similar attacks (group of 50/80/130 solders hit) happen at least 3-4 times per day.
All information of successful bombings is published by ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ General Staff [ ], this broadcast is more of Strategic level.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Weapons:

Next Ramstein meeting on 9th of January.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธU.S. supplying M2 Bradley IFVs.
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany supplying Marder IFVs and additional battery of MIM-104 Patriot air-defense.
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง U.K. planning to send tanks and weapons to hit targets at distance.
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France supplying AMX-10 RC light support tanks and Bastion APCs
Western support will continue and increase. Looks like that restrictions on supplying any weapon types have been lifted.
Western manufacturing still lags, the amount of 155mm shells manufactured in a year are used by ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Ukraine in 50 days.
Western aid as usual includes planning for maintenance, spare parts, training, etc.
Looks like, that there will be accumulation of heavy mechanized units at certain date. The only task for such units is offensive. Offensive can only happen, when ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ has exhausted it’s offensive capabilities. When that happens, Kharkiv operation will look like child’s play.
Two of previously “never” categories have been already planned – Patriot air defense and tanks. Remaining categories are – Aviation and Long-range missiles.
JDAM bombs that were announced previously should be launched from aircraft with NATO avionics. Even if those are upgrades of existing aircraft, that would open more capabilities.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Wagner:

Videos of some Wagner-recruited prisoners being released after 6 months. Video is likely staged, but even if it is true, they will soon return to old lifestyle and back to prison or Wagner again. If they indeed are released, they are placed way above regular army, which with 3 and 6 months contracts are not being released.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Medvedev’s threats:

Medvedev threatens ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธU.S. with 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missiles carried by Admiral Gorshkov frigate. Unknown if Zircon exists at all, if it can fly, if it can be controlled at claimed distance. Zircon was accepted into service on October 2022.
Everyone knows, Medvedev is insane and alcoholic and possibly drug addict. If anything comes close to ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธU.S. in 100 mile range, it would take 3 minutes to sink it, and no single ship would be able to do anything, it takes fleet working together to wage war.
Even more, no single weapon poses significant threat, it takes systematic work like 12 ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S. aircraft carrier groups.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Supporting Saakashvili:

Multiple demonstrations around world at ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช Georgian embassies on January 4th. Washington post made article, looks like information has reached ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธBiden administration. Now, the question is, if ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช Georgia wants to move in direction of ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บEU and NATO, or not.
For example, Rudolf Hess, close ally of Hitler was arrested during WW2, tried for war crimes, and lived in prison until age 93.
Saakashvili is being just 2 years in prison, poisoned and killed by ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช Georgian government in order to please Putin.

Next broadcast on Saturday, January 7th

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