Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak

English voice-over video by Privateer Station:

Original video in Russian:

🔥 Cease-fire proposal:

The only beneficiary of proposal is 🇹🇷 Erdogan, likely he will get some discount to gas price.
Zelensky did offer cease-fire for catholic Christmas in December.
🇺🇦 Ukraine now wants to continue the war, until all occupiers are gone from 🇺🇦 Ukraine land. After that, there can be cease-fire.
🇺🇸 U.S. and 🇪🇺 E.U. expressed distrust to cease-fire proposal.
From military perspective, a day of cease-fire won’t allow any regrouping or other actions, it is purely diplomatic trap, to create accusations.
There won’t be any cease-fire.
Beriev A-50 airborne radar & control did arrive to 🇧🇾 Belarus, apparently 🇷🇺 is preparing another wave missile and drone attacks instead of cease-fire.

🔥 Battlefield update:

🇷🇺 started reinforcing Zaporozhye, Bakhmut-Soledar, Lyman directions with approximately 10k draftees having some limited training during last 2-3 months. They will slowly accumulate and attempt offensive.
Zelensky is discussing with international partners about options to make this offensive the last one.
There are 3 possible scenarios – North and everywhere, Kharkiv-Zaporozhye-Donetsk-Luhansk and most sober – Donetsk-Luhansk. Likely 🇷🇺 will only attempt sending 200k at Donetsk-Luhansk, but the quality of those 200k is much lower than of regular army.
Tokmak: location with some 80 🇷🇺 solders hit. Similar attacks (group of 50/80/130 solders hit) happen at least 3-4 times per day.
All information of successful bombings is published by 🇺🇦 General Staff [https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua ], this broadcast is more of Strategic level.

🔥 Weapons:

Next Ramstein meeting on 9th of January.
🇺🇸U.S. supplying M2 Bradley IFVs.
🇩🇪 Germany supplying Marder IFVs and additional battery of MIM-104 Patriot air-defense.
🇬🇧 U.K. planning to send tanks and weapons to hit targets at distance.
🇫🇷 France supplying AMX-10 RC light support tanks and Bastion APCs
Western support will continue and increase. Looks like that restrictions on supplying any weapon types have been lifted.
Western manufacturing still lags, the amount of 155mm shells manufactured in a year are used by 🇺🇦 Ukraine in 50 days.
Western aid as usual includes planning for maintenance, spare parts, training, etc.
Looks like, that there will be accumulation of heavy mechanized units at certain date. The only task for such units is offensive. Offensive can only happen, when 🇷🇺 has exhausted it’s offensive capabilities. When that happens, Kharkiv operation will look like child’s play.
Two of previously “never” categories have been already planned – Patriot air defense and tanks. Remaining categories are – Aviation and Long-range missiles.
JDAM bombs that were announced previously should be launched from aircraft with NATO avionics. Even if those are upgrades of existing aircraft, that would open more capabilities.

🔥 Wagner:

Videos of some Wagner-recruited prisoners being released after 6 months. Video is likely staged, but even if it is true, they will soon return to old lifestyle and back to prison or Wagner again. If they indeed are released, they are placed way above regular army, which with 3 and 6 months contracts are not being released.

🔥 Medvedev’s threats:

Medvedev threatens 🇺🇸U.S. with 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missiles carried by Admiral Gorshkov frigate. Unknown if Zircon exists at all, if it can fly, if it can be controlled at claimed distance. Zircon was accepted into service on October 2022.
Everyone knows, Medvedev is insane and alcoholic and possibly drug addict. If anything comes close to 🇺🇸U.S. in 100 mile range, it would take 3 minutes to sink it, and no single ship would be able to do anything, it takes fleet working together to wage war.
Even more, no single weapon poses significant threat, it takes systematic work like 12 🇺🇸 U.S. aircraft carrier groups.

🔥 Supporting Saakashvili:

Multiple demonstrations around world at 🇬🇪 Georgian embassies on January 4th. Washington post made article, looks like information has reached 🇺🇸Biden administration. Now, the question is, if 🇬🇪 Georgia wants to move in direction of 🇪🇺EU and NATO, or not.
For example, Rudolf Hess, close ally of Hitler was arrested during WW2, tried for war crimes, and lived in prison until age 93.
Saakashvili is being just 2 years in prison, poisoned and killed by 🇬🇪 Georgian government in order to please Putin.

Next broadcast on Saturday, January 7th