Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, Ukraine’s Presidential Head of Office advisor for Day 314, January 3rd 2023, kindly brought to you by Anastasiya: @Anastasiya1451A

🔥Battlefield overview

Ukrainian defenders continue to destroy Russian military warehouses and bases, with at least 5 cases of a large number of Russian soldiers hit in the Kherson region (2), Tokmak (1) and occupied Donetsk region (3), resulting in mass Russian casualties.

Russia continues shelling Ukrainian territory and attacks on critical infrastructure and Ukrainian civilians.

🔥Kherson

Ukraine liberated the island of Bolshoi Potemkovskij (on the Dnipro River) from the Russian presence, putting back the Ukrainian flag. Part of the 2 Russian BTG previously stationed there fled the island, part stayed there forever.

🔥Zaporizhzhya

Russian forces are regrouping and reinforcing their defences, fearing a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Zaporizhzhja region.

🔥Bahmut & Soledar

Heavy fighting continues. Ukrainian forces are holding their ground and Russian forces lost some ground near Bahmut. The Bahmut-Soledar direction continues to be the main direction of a Russian attack. Russian advance in Mariinka is exaggerated and Ukraine holds the town.

Russia is continuously shelling Bahmut with artillery and sending waves of Wagner recruits (in some cases potentially sending Russian infantry to attack under heavy drugs). However, international observers point out that Wagner has failed to achieve its objectives and the intensity of their attack is decreasing.

🔥Kreminna & Svatove

Local clashes continue. Russia has concentrated forces to attack Ukrainian positions in this direction, with two Russian generals recently visiting the Russian positions to force their subordinates to stage a large-scale attack (after the previous Russian attempt two weeks ago failed). Ukraine is aware of this and is preparing for the next Russian move (around Lyman and Bilogorivka).

🔥Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities

Russia continues attacks on Ukrainian cities in Zaporizhzhja, Kryvyj Rig, Kharkiv and Kherson region using drones and missiles, attempting to target critical infrastructure and terrorise civilians. In the Kherson region, the artillery shelling on residential areas by Russia continues.

🔥Makeevka

About 400 Russian mobilized (originating from different Russian cities, like Samara and Saratov) died as a result of a Ukrainian strike on a building where they were housed in Makeevka, in the Russia-occupied part of Donetsk region. The large number of KIA is due to Russia housing mobilized in large numbers in one non-reinforced building, together with ammunition and equipment just next to it. The secondary detonations of ammunition after the HIMARS strike levelled the building, resulting in mass casualties for Russia.

This is not an isolated incident, as Russian occupiers were hit in at least 5 different locations on the left bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region, in Tokmak (Zaporizhzhia) and in the occupied Donetsk region (resulting in dozens of casualties in each case).

The last excuse from the Russian official sources and propaganda for the gross negligence on the part of the Russian army command is that the mobilized were using phones that were detected by Ukrainian forces and helped direct the strike. This is an attempt of the Russian regime to avoid blame by scape-goating the dead mobilised.

In reality, the phones of the mobilized are confiscated (thus fewer videos of the conditions of the mobilized recently). The Russian mobilized are shipped to the frontlines and many are housed near the ammunition dumps and equipment. Therefore, Ukrainian defenders will continue strikes on the Russian invaders until they leave Ukraine one way or another. This is the fate of the Russian mobilized – to be sent to Ukraine to die. The Russian populace should remember that. 

🔥Russian attack on Ukrainian cities on New Year’s Eve

Russia staged a series of missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities during the New Year’s Eve celebration to attempt to lower Ukrainian civilians’ morale. The attack on Kyiv came in two waves, the first was targeting Governmental buildings (all missiles were shot down) and hotels in central Kyiv (injuring one Japanese journalist) and the second wave was targeting Ukrainian critical energy infrastructure. Almost all of Shahid drones and missiles were shot down by the Ukrainian air defence.

Russian propaganda is trying to present the strike on the hotel in Kyiv as an attack on “NATO operatives” to sell it to the domestic Russian public.

🔥Ukrainian defenders

The Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, territorial defence, the whole of Ukraine is fighting to defend Ukraine from Russian aggressors. Or, in the words of President Zelensky, – “Ukrainians are fighting for each other”.

🔥Russian mobilization

The Ukrainian Minister of Defence has stated that Russia is preparing the next round of mobilization after the 5th of January 2023. The mobilization in the Russian Federation started 3 weeks after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and hasn’t stopped since then. First, it was a “hidden” mobilization conducted by the Russian army, then the open & “partial” mobilization started in September and hasn’t really stopped. Russia managed to gather almost 300k in the first wave. Of this first wave, the unfortunate 150k were immediately sent to the frontlines without training. Another half was sent to the training centres, receiving the varying quality of training. While Russia has already spent 150k of the first wave, the Russian command has already decided to use the rest of the mobilized to attack Ukraine (either on a suicide attack on the North of Ukraine, or to occupy the rest of the Donetsk region).

The Russian regime will mobilize more people because they realise that the remaining 150k from the first wave will die attacking Ukraine.

Putin’s main objective now is to remain in power to physically survive in Russia. Putin is willing to sacrifice as many Russians as he can to force some kind of ceasefire & negotiations on Ukraine and the West. He will try to sell a ceasefire/negotiations as a “victory” because a defeat will mean the physical removal of Putin from power, and thus, his physical demise will certainly follow.

The new mobilization wave in Russia will lead to another mass exit from Russia. Therefore, the Russian regime will probably attempt to close the borders.

🔥The next couple of months will be decisive 

In the next couple of months, Russia will struggle with:

1) managing to recruit another 300k mobilized;

2) finding equipment and logistic capacities to deal with these mobilised;

3) finding officers to manage all the mobilized;

4) deciding on the direction of the attack.

Different Russian factions are arguing to use the mobilized to:

1) attack the North of Ukraine, which will be a suicide;

2) or attack Zaporizhzhja and Donbas direction (maybe also Kharkiv) or;

3) the most feasible, attack to occupy the rest of the Donetsk region.

Ukraine is not only better prepared now but is also supported by the West  (economically and militarily). The West has already prepared to help Ukraine’s economy and is increasing the capacity of its industrial-military complex to aid Ukraine, with military aid probably increasing and including novel armament in the future.

While Russia will try to force a long war of attrition or a frozen conflict on Ukraine and the West, the international military experts are questioning the Russian capacity to arm, equip and feed the mobilized. While Ukraine may still see some bloody battles and face some struggles, the Ukrainians will continue to fight for its survival and for the liberation of all Ukrainian territories – this is non-negotiable.

🔥Russia – poverty & death ahead

Russian exports to the EU have dropped due to sanctions. Thus, the Russian economy will have a large budget deficit, leading the Kremlin to cut social support. The potential Russian mobilized should remember that their quality of life will drop in Russia and that Putin is willinGeorgia’sg to send another 400k of Russian as cannon fodder to die in Ukraine.

🔥Saving Saakashvili

The worldwide action to demand medical treatment and fair trial for long-term Putin’s critic, Georgia’s ex-president Mikhail Saakashvili, will start on the 4th of January at noon, at your local Georgian embassy. The current pro-Russian Georgian Government is denying proper medical treatment to Saakashvili who was poisoned while in custody and is dragging him to a trial – this is a violation of the human right of life, dignity and the right to proper medical treatment. #SaveMisha

Next stream is on Thursday, 5th of January.