Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, Ukraine’s Presidential Head of Office advisor for Day 307, December 27th, kindly brought to you by Anastasiya: @Anastasiya1451A
🔥Battlefield overview
Russia continues shelling Ukrainian critical infrastructure and residential areas in Kherson & Kharkiv. Ukrainian artillery and HIMARS respond by destroying Russian military targets (ammunition & military bases). Heavy fighting continues along the frontline from Vuhledar to Kreminna.
🔥Bahmut & Soledar
Heavy fighting continues. Russian forces lost some ground near Bahmut and are regrouping. High-intensity, bloody battles continue non-stop near Soledar. The situation is difficult but stable. Russian sources are concentrating their efforts between Bahmut and Soledar.
🔥Kreminna & Svatove
Tactical battles continue between Ukrainian & Russian forces. Ukrainian forces are approaching Kreminna, but the reports of the city being liberated were exaggerated.
🔥Kherson
Russia shelled a maternity ward in Kherson. Luckily, no one was hurt as staff, mothers and babies were in a bomb shelter during the attack.
🔥Putin’s Rings of Power
When meeting with heads of state at the informal meeting of the Moscow-dominated so-called Commonwealth of Independent States, Putin offered the invited leaders golden rings.
After the Russian Army failed to occupy Ukraine, attempts to convince China to help Kremlin, blackmail the world with nuclear weapons, begging Iran for drones & ballistic missiles, Russia finally resorted to some serious business – magic rings for “mortal men”…
🔥More air-defence weapons for Ukraine
The US is going to supply two more NASAMS systems to Ukraine. Moreover, the Italian PM stated that Italy is also discussing to provide more air-defence systems to help Ukraine protect itself.
🔥BBC’s prediction for War in Ukraine in 2023
BBC has mentioned 5 different scenarios of development of the war in Ukraine in 2023, which range from the fast liberation of Ukrainian territories & capitulation of Russia, to the slow defeat of Russia, to a more prolonged conflict with Russia eventually losing and withdrawing from Ukraine.
Ukraine is preparing for every possible scenario (inc. additional mobilization in Russia, etc.) and is being aided by the collective West. Meanwhile, Russian mobilization and arming capabilities are under question.
🔥Orban parroting Kremlin’s narrative
Obran keeps parroting Kremlin’s talking point, claiming that “Ukraine can only fight while the US is providing support to Ukraine”.
While Orban spreads the quintessential Kremlin narrative, appeasing Putin, many Hungarians are pro-West and pro-Ukraine. The Obran’s support for Putin will be noted by the EU and NATO.
🔥Arrest & confiscation of Russian oligarch
The property of Russian oligarchs that support the Russian invasion of Ukraine and try to smuggle Ukrainian goods into Russia is being arrested. The confiscation procedure is also starting in some cases, but the process is slow due to the investigation and legal proceedings in Ukraine to ensure that the property is indeed belonging to the Russian oligarchs.
🔥Ban on Russian oil & Putin’s self-imposed export embargo
Putin has forbidden to export of oil to states that are “unfriendly” to Russia and that support the price cap measures. This will further damage the Russian economy and oil industry, as many of the extraction sites will be closed permanently.
Putin’s decision to compromise 2/3 of the Russian budget (that depends on Russian oil sales) may create discontent among the elites and will make difficult the financing of the Army, and domestic security forces to beat the protests into submission and the Russian propaganda machine to keep the populace obedient.
🔥Europe and the US are waking up
While Europe has a limited amount of available military equipment, the American and European military-industrial complex is ramping up the production of new military equipment and the contracts for military aid to Ukraine for 2023 are being agreed. On Wednesday, the Minister of Defence of France is going to visit Kyiv, probably to discuss further military aid.
🔥No “business” as usual with Russia
Germany’s Foreign Minister Baerbock stated that “There is no way back” to the business as usual with Russia. While Europe would like for Russia to be a peaceful, liberal, democratic state, the reality of the situation is different and Europe needs to respond to Russian aggression. This marks a significant shift and improvement in EU security and strategic development policies.
🔥New global security architecture
While Europe is revitalising its military-industrial complex and strengthening its Armies to prevent attacks from Russia, the US is working closely with its allies in the Pacific region.
Indeed, countries like Japan, Australia and Taiwan are strengthening their cooperation with the US, India & amongst themselves to respond to threats from China, N. Korea and Russia. We are to see more fundamental changes in the security arrangements in this region in 2023.
$44B for Ukraine from the US and $33B from the G7 (inc. $18B from EU), which secures the Ukrainian economy (the 1% growth is predicted by international agencies) and allows to focus on the liberation of territories and global security alliance. Many of these new global security architectures will be discussed during the Peace Forum in February, which would mark 1 year of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
🔥Armenia trying to escape the Russian captivity
Armenian PM Pashinyan is criticizing the Russian failure to provide security guarantees to Armenia. At the same time, the discontent is growing in Armenia due to Russia also sacrificing Armenian interests while trying to force Armenia into a position of “union-state” (making it into a quasi-soviet style republic without any sovereign right).
Armenian people and government are rethinking the decades of dependence on and appeasing of Russia, the warmongering politics of the corrupt Karabakh clan that appeases the Kremlin at the expense of the economical and territorial safety of Armenia.
🔥Saving Saakashvili
Polish EU parliament MP stated that Georgia won’t be accepted in the EU if Mikhail Saakashvili dies in the custody of the current Georgian Government. The European community does not tolerate violation of the human right and the Georgian Gov. allowing the poisoning of Saakashvili, forcing him to participate in a trial while sick and denying appropriate medical treatment. #SaveMisha
Next stream is on Wednesday, 28th of December.
