Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis:ย @savaadaak
English voice-over video byย Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
๐ฅ Battlefield update:
๐ฅ Kherson: shelling, civilians getting killed
๐ฅ Vuhledar: battles
๐ฅ Soledar, Bakhmut: battles. Rumors of ๐บ๐ฆ Ukraine pushing ๐ท๐บ back even more from Bakhmut.
๐ฅ Nyzhnia Duvanka-Kreminna: the same fuss, as before
Overall no significant changes, not much happening operationally, but bloody tactical battles. Many solders dying near Bakhmut, but ๐ท๐บ losses are approximately 7 times higher.
๐ฅ Melitopol explosion:
Several FSB employees killed and local collaborator policemen wounded. There are 4 things that affect morale and mental state during war: 1) unexpected artillery shelling 2) mine risk 3) sudden destruction of your post while you were away 4) explosions in seemingly peaceful cities
๐ฅ Belarus:
Information published on attacks being prepared from ๐ง๐พ Belarus. ๐ง๐พ Belarus group is not ready for attacks, but they will be used to create psychological pressure. Likely scaremongering will be combined with air strikes, to disrupt Christmas and New Year celebrations.
There are 11k troops in various training grounds around ๐ง๐พ Belarus, not in single united group, they are slowly getting tanks and reinforcements. There are several dozen to hundred of Wagner mercenaries.
It’s possible that ๐ท๐บ will create provocations, possibly enter, attack and bounce, probing northern border, creating illusion of larger attack, fixing ๐บ๐ฆ Ukrainian forces. In some extreme case, it’s possible that ๐ท๐บ would throw all of those forces to get killed, just to keep ๐บ๐ฆ forces busy, instead of being deployed to East. ๐บ๐ฆ Ukraine has created various engineering and defensive solutions. Even attacking force is less – barely 10 BTGs of novice draftees, compared to 17 elite BTGs on 24th of February. There is nothing, that could reach Kyiv again.
๐ฅ Iran:
๐ฎ๐ฑ Israel reports that ๐ฎ๐ท Iran is planning to expand supplies to ๐ท๐บ, as well as work on uranium enrichment. Unlikely ๐ฎ๐ฑ Israel would start a war, to decrease supplies to ๐ท๐บ. ๐บ๐ฆ Ukraine getting Patriot air defense, is possibly a result of ๐ฎ๐ท Iran supplying ballistic missiles to ๐ท๐บ, Patriot’s first use is intercepting ballistic missiles.
๐ฅ Rogozin:
Various rumors and news, but nothing important to pay attention.
๐ฅ Artillery and aviation:
Washington Post: ๐บ๐ธU.S. can manufacture the same amount of 155mm artillery shells, that ๐บ๐ฆ are spending in just two days. If this was true, ๐บ๐ฆ Ukraine would be long out of ammo. ๐บ๐ฆ Ukraine is using more shells than NATO would, but it’s due to NATO main force being aviation.
๐บ๐ฆ Ukraine is also getting JDAM conversion kits, that can convert existing 250kg or 500kg bombs into smart bombs with accuracy 10m. A 500kg bomb leaves crater with 5m depth and 10-15m width. Those bombs should be controllable and launched 20km away from target. There are no targets that would survive such bombs. This would be game-changing, comparable to HIMARS, if ๐บ๐ฆ Ukraine manages to convert enough bombs. Quantity of supplied kits is unknown.
๐ฅ Putin visits weapons factory:
Aim to show care for needs of solders, and his physical fitness. Rumors of his doppelganger doing visit.
๐ฅ Psychological assistance program:
๐บ๐ฆ starting program to provide psychological assistance to it’s solders. For PTSD it’s much easier to provide preventive training, than to work with consequences. Preparations are done as part of regular training, proper training decreases PTSD cases by 70%. Government should provide psychological assistance to any solder or policemen, showing how to notice symptoms in themselves and colleagues. Post-war traumas are felt for decades, even generations. For example after WW2, structure of marriage changed in USSR countries, it’s still being felt 70 years later. Traumas can be decreased with proper treatment, but the amount of psychologists needed is going to be huge.
๐ฅ U.N. Security Council:
๐ช๐บ Charles Michel suggests creating mechanism to remove ๐ท๐บ from ๐บ๐ณU.N. Security council. Start of discussion is quite significant and can be compared to ๐บ๐ฆ Ukraine getting Patriot air defense, which it previously was denied.
๐ฅ U.S. proposal to label russia as aggressor:
Instead of labeling as terrorist, a workaround proposal to label ๐ท๐บ as aggressor. Label of terrorist would require ๐บ๐ธ U.S. to start immediate financial monitoring, sanctions and limit ability for any country to work with ๐ท๐บ. All ๐บ๐ธU.S. economic would be focused on limiting ๐ฎ๐ณ India and ๐จ๐ณ China deals with ๐ท๐บ. ๐บ๐ธ U.S. does not want this confrontation, thus label of aggressor would be used for first time, there are no predefined actions, they can be added slowly.
๐ฅ Weapons and financial aid:
๐ท๐บ ambassador Antonov: ๐บ๐ธU.S. is waging war against ๐ท๐บ , risking direct clash. ๐ท๐บ rhetoric is high, because ๐บ๐ธ U.S. is making decisions on $44 bn assistance, including $24 bn military assistance. There is going to be a series of very pleasant surprises. Likely ๐ท๐บ is already informed, thus the rhetoric, as they can’t do anything else.
G7 commits to $32 bn assistance in 2023.
๐ท๐บ dreams for pushing ๐บ๐ฆ Ukraine into dead-end, stable front-line, as before 24th February. 1.2 million solders (combined army and other structures), with ability to increase will not allow positional war, even if western assistance ceases. Already approved assistance guarantees victory at minimum.
๐ฅ Saakashvili:
A letter and toxicology report by David E. Smith MD, & Associates stating that Saakashvili was poisoned [link]. Human rights are not internal matter, and have international prerogative. It would be very bad to ๐ฌ๐ช Georgian government for Saakashvili to die in prison, it would cause international response. To avoid unnecessary death, Arestovych personally is prepared to vouch for him.
