Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
🔥 Patriot air defense:
One battery of Patriot system means covering one strategically important location and changing situation there. To have radical changes everywhere, 🇺🇦 Ukraine would need at least 3, preferably 4 batteries of Patriot. Each battery can cost up to $1 billion.
Patriot is good at intercepting ballistic missiles, like Iskander and 🇮🇷 Iranian ballistic missiles, which are hard to intercept by other air defense systems.
Possibly threat of 🇮🇷 Iran ballistic missiles is one of reasons for providing Patriot system. Expecting that this won’t be the only battery, if it works well, at least another battery could be provided.
Patriot’s range is usually 80km, up to 150km for best modifications, which likely won’t be provided. It can be well integrated in information exchange systems. Targets can be passed to NASAMS or IRIS-T, increasing total effectiveness. For example Kyiv which has already good air defense, could get just 2 launchers out of 6 in battery, other districts getting the rest. So, in a way, it’s more than just standalone air-defense battery, but it’s not completely game-changing.
Arestovych is skeptical, if 🇺🇸U.S. has decided, if they want fast defeat of 🇷🇺, and ATACMS won’t be provided before that. It’s not that 🇺🇸U.S. is cruel and wants deaths of 🇺🇦 Ukrainians, but they don’t have plans for post-Putin 🇷🇺, or world after collapse of 🇷🇺. 🇺🇸 U.S. will never let situation develop unpredictably.
Fast collapse of 🇷🇺 could lead to world much worse for everyone, including 🇺🇦 Ukraine. For example Prigozhin could get to power, 20 of Kadyrov-like warlords getting nuclear weapons uncontrollably.
However previously impossible things are happening. Patriots were out of the question before, now they are being supplied. As Churchill said “Americans will always do the right thing, only after they have tried everything else”. The same will happen with ATACMS, 🇺🇦 Ukraine will at some point get M1A1 Abrams, F16, F/A-18 Hornet and so on, but of course we wish for much sooner.
🔥 Other weapons:
Some serious nomenclature, previously unavailable:
— 100k 125mm tank shells – it’s a lot, and 🇺🇦 Ukraine is using tanks as counter-battery and field artillery, using a lot of ammo.
— 45k 152mm artillery shells, 20k 122mm artillery shells, 50k 122mm rockets for BM21 Grad
Most of that ammunition is for old soviet equipment, Arestovych has no idea [wink] where 🇺🇸U.S. got it.
🇺🇦 Ukraine is still using a lot of soviet weapons, and if those sources don’t dry up, situation in front will significantly change for the better.
— 500 guided artillery shells, which will guarantee 450 precise hits.
— 37 Cougar armored vehicles, 120 HMMWVs – a brigade of wheeled vehicles.
🔥 U.S. politics and Zelensky’s visit:
🇺🇸U.S. dilemma is in significant opposition between Republicans and Democrats, and year 2023 is going to have pre-election taste. Republicans have 4 main blocks, Democrats have 3 directions including ultra-left (about 25%, which is significant issue for Democrats).
🇺🇸 U.S. internal politics are bordering hidden civil war. Some Republicans are convinced that BLM, ultra-left are much worse than Putin. In almost religious belief they think that Putin is conservative, but they want to destroy world, and better to have Putin.
🇺🇦 Zelensky has the task to convince Americans, that we are defenders of western values, but Putin is just a criminal, pretending to have some orthodox concepts. This should be heard in Zelensky’s speech.
No further details of Zelensky travels can be provided, but likely he would visit some other countries.
Zelensky has proposal for world security summit, new model of future security for all nations, based on 10 points presented at G20 summit in Bali.
Nobody in the world has vision of future, and Zelensky is presenting exactly that. 🇺🇦 Ukraine is preparing for end of war, which is still far, but needs to be strategically planned.
🔥 Russia plans:
🇷🇺 is planning what to do with their new 200k solders. During last 3 months, 🇷🇺 has lost 60k at Bakhmut and Soledar, not capturing anything. Even if they capture Bakhmut, there are 5 more large cities just in Donetsk district.
Putin is rushing between 🇷🇺 General staff, Ministry of Defense, 🇧🇾 Belarus, trying to understand level of preparedness, participation of possible ally, weapons supplies and manufacturing, what to trust, whom to trust, etc. In the end deciding where to attack, and with what forces, which is very hard decision. On 24th of February they had illusion of superiority, now there is no illusion. 200k solders is not a lot. If thrown at some directions, they can cause significant issues and losses for 🇺🇦 Ukraine, perhaps even loss of territory (like 2km near Bakhmut during 3 months). Even if promising regain of initiative, in perspective of Zelensky’s meeting with Biden, that plan can be thrown out. Putin can’t stop attacking, as that means end to his political figure, but existing attacks don’t succeed. So 🇷🇺 is planning some sort of pretending to attack, to be feel more comfortable in fire pit.