Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
🔥 Battlefield update:
🔥 Kherson: no ground contact, artillery working. Hydroelectric power plant attacked. Several inhabitants of Kherson and surroundings killed. 🇺🇦 Ukraine responding with artillery, good results in destroying enemy troops, equipment and supplies.
🔥 Zaporozhye: Battles of tactical level, Vuhledar exhausted – no attempts to advance.
🔥 Marinka-Soledar: main directon of battles. Same attempts of daily assaults. Heavily depending on training level, some 🇺🇦 forces are taking same position for months, others are moving – the can’t hold and enemy is outnumbering.
🔥 Marinka: very slowly getting pushed back, 10-100 meters per week at huge cost to 🇷🇺.
🔥 Avdiivka: 🇷🇺 intends to encircle.
🔥 Bakhmut-Soledar: enemy putting huge effort, fierce battles, little to no success. 🇷🇺 in some outer buildings of Bakhmut, 🇺🇦 doing tactical counter-attacks (last night a successful one). Published photos show hundreds of 🇷🇺 bodies.
🔥 Spirne-Bilohorivka: never-ending attacks.
🔥 Nyzhnia Duvanka-Kreminna: at some locations 🇷🇺 moving, at others 🇺🇦.
🔥 Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia, Dnipro: being bombed by S-300 and tube artillery near border.
🔥 Putin visits joint headquarters of branch troops
There is not much information of those headquarters, but it’s likely regular situation awareness center located in Moscow. Visit is intended as message to internal audience, showing care of solders.
🔥 Prolonged war:
Stoltenberg: 🇷🇺 is preparing for prolonged war. Nobody likes long war, but it will be already a year in 2 months, and war will not end by then. Western politicians are likely addressing multiple groups of population: 1) We will defend 🇺🇦 Ukraine. 2) We will work with economics, but it might be tighter. 3) We are doing everything for Putin to attend negotiations. Those are just political rhetorics. Prolonged war is less dangerous to coalition with 60% world economics, rather than 🇷🇺 with 1.5%
🔥 Next wave of mobilization:
Current 200k solders, even if they are physically present – need equipment and weapons. If they are brought into battle, they are destroyed by April-May. There is nothing to arm next 300k solders. Battles should cease by summer, but that doesn’t mean that bombing by missiles will stop, only decrease in intensity. Final blow should be done by Armed Forces of Ukraine, and that depends on weapons supplies. Arestovych has feeling that aircraft will be supplied to 🇺🇦 Ukraine. 🇬🇧 U.K. announced plans to provide modification kits to 🇺🇦 bombs, turning them into precision guided bombs.
Very important factor is tempo. 🇺🇦 Ukraine needs enough weapons to react on intelligence reports about 🇷🇺 concentrations, and either relocate forces there for defense or hit at another location – so that 🇷🇺 is forced to relocate. This depends on mobility of ground forces and availability of various vehicles.
🔥 Russian General Gerasimov:
New York Times published article, stating that 🇺🇸U.S. had intelligence on location of 🇷🇺 Gerasimov, but chose to not share it with 🇺🇦 Ukraine in fear of escalation. However 🇺🇦 already started attack on their own. 🇺🇦 does not have sentiments, and have attacked high-ranking 🇷🇺 officers multiple times.
Headquarters in Izium were attacked, about 50 of his security were killed, but Gerasimov managed to escape early. This attack seriously decreased 🇷🇺 tempo. Hitting 🇧🇾 Minsk, when Putin is there would be visiting will not happen, as his precise location is not know. If any 🇧🇾 Belarus civilian would die, it would only cause 🇧🇾 Belarus to join war. However if Putin would visit occupied territories, 🇺🇦 would hit immediately.
🔥 February attack on Kyiv:
Recently published information shows that 🇷🇺 solders had orders to reach Kyiv in 18 hours, first units sent were OMON and SOBR. Journals show huge delays even when crossing border, followed by multiple attacks and hundreds of killed. From Arestovych experiences, main force for attacking Kyiv was 🇷🇺 paratroopers, SOBR had lighter and faster vehicles. Out of 17 BTGs sent to Kyiv, 8 were paratroopers, the rest – mechanized infantry, SOBR, and others.
🔥 New attacks:
🇺🇸 Ben Hodges: 🇷🇺 unlikely to assemble enough solders for new large offensive until next February, Arestovych agrees. 🇷🇺 has about 150k solders prepared for various corners of 🇺🇦. Their possible attack locations are Donetsk, Luhansk districts, possibly south, possibly Svatove surroundings. Those attacks will be gradual, with smaller numbers, not 200k simultaneously.