Day 297, December 17th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast

Posted on 20 December 2022

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by Atis

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis:ย @savaadaak

English voice-over video byย Privateer Station:

Original video in Russian:

๐Ÿ”ฅ Battlefield update:

๐Ÿ”ฅ Kherson: no ground contact, artillery working. Hydroelectric power plant attacked. Several inhabitants of Kherson and surroundings killed. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Ukraine responding with artillery, good results in destroying enemy troops, equipment and supplies.
๐Ÿ”ฅ Zaporozhye: Battles of tactical level, Vuhledar exhausted – no attempts to advance.
๐Ÿ”ฅ Marinka-Soledar: main directon of battles. Same attempts of daily assaults. Heavily depending on training level, some ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ forces are taking same position for months, others are moving – the can’t hold and enemy is outnumbering.
๐Ÿ”ฅ Marinka: very slowly getting pushed back, 10-100 meters per week at huge cost to ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ.
๐Ÿ”ฅ Avdiivka: ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ intends to encircle.
๐Ÿ”ฅ Bakhmut-Soledar: enemy putting huge effort, fierce battles, little to no success. ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ in some outer buildings of Bakhmut, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ doing tactical counter-attacks (last night a successful one). Published photos show hundreds of ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ bodies.
๐Ÿ”ฅ Spirne-Bilohorivka: never-ending attacks.
๐Ÿ”ฅ Nyzhnia Duvanka-Kreminna: at some locations ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ moving, at others ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ.
๐Ÿ”ฅ Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia, Dnipro: being bombed by S-300 and tube artillery near border.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Putin visits joint headquarters of branch troops

There is not much information of those headquarters, but it’s likely regular situation awareness center located in Moscow. Visit is intended as message to internal audience, showing care of solders.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Prolonged war:

Stoltenberg: ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ is preparing for prolonged war. Nobody likes long war, but it will be already a year in 2 months, and war will not end by then. Western politicians are likely addressing multiple groups of population: 1) We will defend ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Ukraine. 2) We will work with economics, but it might be tighter. 3) We are doing everything for Putin to attend negotiations. Those are just political rhetorics. Prolonged war is less dangerous to coalition with 60% world economics, rather than ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ with 1.5%

๐Ÿ”ฅ Next wave of mobilization:

Current 200k solders, even if they are physically present – need equipment and weapons. If they are brought into battle, they are destroyed by April-May. There is nothing to arm next 300k solders. Battles should cease by summer, but that doesn’t mean that bombing by missiles will stop, only decrease in intensity. Final blow should be done by Armed Forces of Ukraine, and that depends on weapons supplies. Arestovych has feeling that aircraft will be supplied to ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Ukraine. ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง U.K. announced plans to provide modification kits to ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ bombs, turning them into precision guided bombs.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Tempo:

Very important factor is tempo. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Ukraine needs enough weapons to react on intelligence reports about ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ concentrations, and either relocate forces there for defense or hit at another location – so that ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ is forced to relocate. This depends on mobility of ground forces and availability of various vehicles.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Russian General Gerasimov:

New York Times published article, stating that ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธU.S. had intelligence on location of ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Gerasimov, but chose to not share it with ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Ukraine in fear of escalation. However ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ already started attack on their own. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ does not have sentiments, and have attacked high-ranking ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ officers multiple times.
Headquarters in Izium were attacked, about 50 of his security were killed, but Gerasimov managed to escape early. This attack seriously decreased ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ tempo. Hitting ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Minsk, when Putin is there would be visiting will not happen, as his precise location is not know. If any ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus civilian would die, it would only cause ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus to join war. However if Putin would visit occupied territories, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ would hit immediately.

๐Ÿ”ฅ February attack on Kyiv:

Recently published information shows that ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ solders had orders to reach Kyiv in 18 hours, first units sent were OMON and SOBR. Journals show huge delays even when crossing border, followed by multiple attacks and hundreds of killed. From Arestovych experiences, main force for attacking Kyiv was ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ paratroopers, SOBR had lighter and faster vehicles. Out of 17 BTGs sent to Kyiv, 8 were paratroopers, the rest – mechanized infantry, SOBR, and others.

๐Ÿ”ฅ New attacks:

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Ben Hodges: ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ unlikely to assemble enough solders for new large offensive until next February, Arestovych agrees. ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ has about 150k solders prepared for various corners of ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ. Their possible attack locations are Donetsk, Luhansk districts, possibly south, possibly Svatove surroundings. Those attacks will be gradual, with smaller numbers, not 200k simultaneously.




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