Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
🔥 Battlefield update:
🔥 Kherson: A series of very successful bombings, over 300 draftees killed in last 2-3 days.
🔥 Melitopol: A hotel with Kadyrovytes destroyed, about 200 killed (possibly in several attacks). Bridge destroyed, meaning isolation of battle theater, delaying supplies.
🔥 Novomykhailivka-Marinka-Avdiivka-Bakhmut: Battles, most intense south of Bakhmut, in direction of Chasiv Yar and Kostiantynivka. 🇷🇺 tempo has decreased, weather and some changes are having impact against them. 🇷🇺 is doing worse due to reasons that are well know, but can’t be named yet. Forces from Kherson did become available, so they must be somewhere.
🔥 Nyzhnia Duvanka-Svatove-Rubizhne: sometimes 🇷🇺 attacking, sometimes 🇺🇦 attacking.
🔥 Kharkiv, Zaporozhye, Nikopol, Mykolaiv, Kherson: getting shelled, artillery shelling in Kherson, civilians getting killed.
🔥 Land Forces Day:
Congratulations to the members of Land Forces, largest branch (70%) of 🇺🇦 military. They have their own aviation and engineering. Land forces are the only branch, that can do combined arms operations, they are the heart of army. They hold the burden of war.
Kadyrov claims, front line is moving. Arestovych doesn’t think that 🇷🇺 has chance to break front-line. Even if 🇷🇺 would capture Bakhmut, it doesn’t bring operational value.
Possible agreement on 9th pack of sanctions until end of year, possibly even this week. Natural gas prices about to get agreed on in next couple of days. Personal sanctions on some propagandists, artists and filmmakers, including Nikita Mikhalkov.
Story with TV Rain (Dozhd) shows that even liberals need to reevaluate their values, have repentance, sit in reflection for long time, asking themselves how did they got here, what actions, decisions and choices have led to this moment. Possibly this will happen, when 🇷🇺 gets occupied (unknown by whom).
All those highly loved artists like Mikhalkov simply don’t understand what have they done during last 22 years and even before that. Even if all 166 sanctioned will have remorse, they won’t go public with that. All hope is on Alla Pugacheva, Maxim Galkin and Andrey Makarevich who did immediately announced their opinion starting with Crimea occupation in 2014.
Sanctions on natural gas are desired and effective, but sanctions on artists and directors won’t have much impact.
🇪🇺 Josep Borrell expressed possibility for additional € 3.5 bn funding.
It can have good impact, if it’s spent on weapons exceeding 🇷🇺 capabilities, like IRIS-T, Caesar artillery or if exceeding in quantity.
Likely it will be quality, as quantity can be problematic. 🇪🇺 European manufacturing can likely deliver only long in next year, but even then supplies will be needed.
🇬🇧 Johnson requested for missiles to allow 🇺🇦 hitting drone launch locations.
🔥 Next offensive:
🇺🇸 Forbes predicts next 🇺🇦 Ukraine offensive to happen in direction of Zaporozhye. Attacks in last days do look like either preliminary shots or a distraction. Everyone wants to see easy victories, like near Kherson or Kharkiv. Weather is going to be +3 to +4°C, meaning a lot of mud. However weather doesn’t impact war a lot, it’s still happening near main roads. There have been many examples of attacks at unfavorable weather.
It is likely show-off by both sides displaying vehicles of special forces, as part of bargaining. Even if situation develops into full conflict, it’s nowhere near war in 🇺🇦 Ukraine. It’s possible to have separate provocations, even causalities, but it won’t cause serious crisis in Europe. Moscow is not even hiding their attempts to provoke.
🔥 Poland air defense:
🇩🇪 Germany and 🇵🇱 Poland will start deploying Patriot missile systems in 🇵🇱 Poland near 🇺🇦 Ukraine border. We will immediately see, if they will intercept 🇷🇺 missiles within 🇺🇦. NATO is decided to not allow conflict beyond 🇺🇦, but likely they are not ready to announce this. NATO has huge gap between non-reaction and full reaction, they need proof of direct intentional attack. From this, it’s easier for them to destroy any missile approaching, than react with full power. Unknown, if any air threats will be destroyed already within 🇺🇦 Ukraine, or only if they cross 🇵🇱 Poland air space.
Possibly 🇷🇺 would even limit their missile range, because 🇷🇺 patriotic society could react to NATO involvement.
🔥 Iran supplies:
🇮🇷 Iran complains of no proof, using 🇮🇷 drones in 🇺🇦. Possibly 🇮🇷 could supply missiles with limited range of 300km, instead of full 700km. 🇮🇷 denies building drone factories within 🇷🇺. There are many proofs, dozens of intercepted drones.
Right now there are no missiles and no new drones, that’s likely a result of very strong international pressure from 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇺🇸 U.S., 🇪🇺 Europe and 🇬🇧 U.K.
🔥 Zelensky-Biden call:
Not much official information. Cryptic message from head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andrey Yermak: 🇺🇦🇺🇸📞=🚀🌎💪 [Ukraine U.S. Call = Rocket Earth Strong]. Rocket is good news, a reason for celebration.
🔥 Power blackouts:
G7 meeting on assisting 🇺🇦 with energy infrastructure – 🇺🇦 will not be extinguished. There can be blackouts, even for several days, or disconnected power islands. It’s unpleasant and problematic, but there won’t be apocalypse. Army is completely autonomous, and not depending on energy infrastructure – this won’t have any impact on operations. This is purely a terror on civilians, leading to 9th pack of sanctions and natural gas price cap.
🔥 Nuclear threats:
Washington post as usual making loud headlines. If 🇺🇦 attacks Crimea, it would be hard for 🇷🇺 to hit specifically attacking forces, as they are in motion. 🇷🇺 won’t be making nuclear attack on Crimea, they can hit some city or military base, only making 🇺🇦 angrier.
If 🇺🇦 goes to Crimea, 🇷🇺 already have significant operational crisis, and are unable to defend on land. At that point, nuclear strike won’t have any purpose.
There already have been rhetoric’s after hitting Crimea bridge and other attacks.
The man who’s building golden toilets in Gelendzhik, doesn’t want to die in nuclear war.
Crimea can be made unlivable for 🇷🇺 solders, without entering it, the same way as Kherson.