Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
🔥 Battlefield update:
🔥 Kherson: Camp of 🇷🇺 draftees in Chulakivka destroyed, over 100 killed, 200-300 wounded.
🔥 Melitopol: a key to defense of all 🇺🇦 south, largest manufacturing and logistics hub. If Melitopol falls, 🇺🇦 can reach Crimea and Mariupol. 🇷🇺 concentrating significant forces, 🇺🇦 bombing it for 3 days, even right now. Berdyansk airport also being bombed.
🔥 Vuhledar: nothing
🔥 Novomykhailivka-Marinka-Krasnohorivka-Avdiivka-Kamianka-Novabakhmutivka-Bakhmut-Soledar: hot line, 🇷🇺 forces with size of squad, platoon, rarely a company trying to attack with infantry supported by artillery. Attacks multiple times per day, mostly unsuccessful.
🔥 Bakhmut-Soledar: attacks many times per day with support of aviation and best remains of 🇷🇺 artillery. There are at least 12 tactical artillery groups (2 brigades). 🇷🇺 progress is 100m per week, while taking 1000 causalities.
Infantry attacks are easy to hold off, if you have well working fire control, and recon. However any slightest mistake, and infantry will reach you, and attacking infantry has advantages in trench warfare. There are different levels of preparedness for defenders. Well organized units can sit for months at same location. Units that are not working well will retreat, then better trained units will regain positions in counter-attacks.
Prognosis is that Bakhmut will not be captured.
🔥 Spirne-Bilohorivka: 🇺🇦 has liberated a little strip of Luhansk district, 🇷🇺 attacking, trying to recapture it. Same situation as everywhere, no success.
🔥 Kreminna-Svatove: 🇷🇺 unsuccessfully attempting runs in direction of Yampil-Lyman. 🇺🇦 actions have led to holding fire-control at multiple locations of road Svatove-Kreminna. 🇷🇺 forced to supply through Starobilsk.
🔥 Kharkiv-Chernihiv-Sumy: being shelled by 🇷🇺, occasionally something hits back at attackers.
🔥 Shahed drone attack:
Yesterday 15 drones were launched at south, 10 intercepted. Some damage to energy infrastructure in Odessa district.
🔥 Wagner and mobilized:
Inmates form corrective colony 29 in Kuzbass made a video, saying they are finishing training, but they don’t look like equipped for Wagner.
Man in 🇷🇺 uniform caught in 🇷🇺 Rostov district, firing at 🇷🇺 policemen. Unclear what police would write in protocol, if he is supposed to be in prison.
Prisoners can be “motivated” better for assault than mobilized – nobody would search for them if they go missing, so they have to choose between likely death in attack, or sure death for not complying.
Amount of prisoners recruited shows that mobilized are not going into assault willingly, meaning 🇷🇺 army lacks assault troops.
Attacks will only last, while there are prisoners, draftees can’t be for complicated or risky objectives. Second and third wave of mobilized won’t be good for attacks.
🔥 Strikes inside Russia:
🇺🇸U.S. has given green light for 🇺🇦 Ukraine to attack targets in 🇷🇺.
🇺🇦 has so far not listened to such restrictions, if they existed. If hypothetically 🇺🇦 would be doing such strikes, it would not use 🇺🇸 U.S. weapons for that, there are enough local weapons. 🇷🇺 Millerovo air base was attacked on 25th of February and not with 🇺🇸 U.S. weapons.
🔥 Russian munitions:
🇷🇺 are running out of Kh-555 and Kh-101 missiles, they can do 5-6 more operations of 100 missiles (one operation is 3-4 rounds). 🇷🇺 can then use Kh-22 which are ancient and very inaccurate (600+ meters). As they are intended against ships, they will look for largest target, and one such was used and hit supermarket.
Other missiles have less range (300km) and have smaller warheads. Their effectiveness is doubtful.
🇷🇺 will combine different missiles, in less amounts, effectiveness will decrease to minimum.
🔥 Victor But:
was just exchanged from 🇺🇸 and immediately expressed support of war in 🇺🇦. As he is 55 years old, he is welcomed to join 🇷🇺 army near Bakhmut, where he will get a chance to revenge for all his experiences in 🇺🇸 prisons and become immortal hero in 15 minutes.
Planning to visit Moscow, and then Kyiv. Likely he was asked by Moscow, but 🇺🇦 should not worry. Possibly 🇹🇷 Turkey will get discount for gas, but 🇺🇦 will get more Bayraktars and armored vehicles.