Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast. This update was provided by Stepan: https://twitter.com/childsacrifice1
🔥Overall Front line situation: No significant changes. Continued Russian human wave tactics. Dniepr and Zaporozhye were shelled with missiles. Ukrainian forces shot down a KA52 helicopter and SU34 fighter bomber. Unsuccessful attacks in Avdiivka and Bakhmut in an attempt to surround Avdiivka and take Bakhmut. Arestovich says enemy combat power must be depleted to launch an offensive. Zelenskiy visited the hottest section of the front to support the troops on the Armed Forces day.
🔥Kursk: Another smoking accident at an oil storage at an airbase in Kursk.
🔥Russian Air defense: over the last 2 days, Russian air defenses did not engage even once. They did not even detect the targets.
🔥Russian air bases: According to Arestovich, 3 planes were destroyed in Engels AB and 1 in Dyagilevo.
🔥Diplomacy: Hungary is said to have blocked $18 billion of aid, but they deny this. This is an “unfriendly action”. If you are “for peace”, you are for Putin. There will be no negotiations with Putin because the west after 8 years now finally understands that everything must be decided on the battlefield. Minsk 1 and 2 were ceasefires, and they led to this war.
🔥Weather: The weather conditions are adversely affecting Ukraine’s ability to attack and defend. However, offensive actions can still be carried out even with unfavorable weather. Another 5 operations like Kharkhiv or Kherson and there will not be a single Russian soldier in Ukraine.
🔥Western media: Arestovych does not feel that there is a loss of interest in western media, on the contrary, there was less interest 2 months ago.
🔥Girkin: Igor Girkin came back to Moscow with a pessimistic analysis of the situation. He says that no one in the Russian army knows what they are fighting for. Russian troops would be fighting much better if they had a clear achievable goal.
🔥Ukrainian air defenses: Shaheeds attacked the south of Ukraine as the stream was ongoing and were shot down as the means to do this are now available. Arestovich brings up the video of the Gepard SPAAG shooting down a Russian cruise missile. The Gepard was in a perfect position because the Ukrainians know the flight trajectories of Russian missiles in advance. Gepards are even better at shooting down Shaheed 136s which can be shot down with 2-3 shells. The fire control system makes this very easy.
🔥Russian mobilization: A large second wave of mobilization is planned in January-February on top of the current mobilization which never stopped. This large second wave is needed for replacements, as Russia is losing a battalion equivalent (600 people) a day.
🔥Freedom for Russia legion: Additional mobilizations will increase the number of partisans. Last night, the legion carried out a sabotage action on the trans-Siberian railway which led to the halting of train transport of Russian mobilized soldiers. This is a direct cause of mobilization.
🔥Alleged Ukrainian shelling of Donetsk: Pro-Russian groups spread false information that the AFU shelled the center of Donetsk and an open marketplace. The AFU does not have enough artillery to hit all military targets, why would they shell civilian ones, and on top of that their own civilians? What does this give Ukraine? Anyone who would order such a shelling would be arrested in Ukraine. Stray shells do happen, but not on a large scale. Some locals claim that the shelling came from the Russian side, from Makiivka.
🔥Prisoner exchange: 60 soldiers from both sides were exchanged, including some Azov servicemen from Ukraine.
🔥 Russian missile strikes: Arestovich believes that Russia has around 200 cruise missiles left for strikes on Ukraine. Russia is capable of 3-4, maximum 5 more large scale missile strikes. The Russians achieved no objectives and this cost them around $10 billion. The Russians will still be capable of carrying out strikes in Ukraine, but they will have to change the type of missile and perhaps resort to using inaccurate Soviet Kh-22s. Russia has wasted their strategic strike potential on destroying Ukrainian infrastructure and are now incapable of fighting NATO.