Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
🔥 Battlefield update:
🔥 Kherson: 🇷🇺 shelling the city, 🇺🇦 hitting planned targets on the other side of the Dnipro river, which makes it uncomfortable for 🇷🇺, and they are moving away. Today, part of regularly targeted units were noticed moving to new positions.
🔥 Zaporozhye: no significant changes, tactical actions.
🔥 Vuhledar-Marinka-Avdiivka-Bakhmut: hot line of battles
🔥 Bakhmut: quite a complicated but controllable situation. 🇷🇺 trying to cut off roads Bakhmut-Konstantynivka and Bakhmut-Sloviansk. Processes are in progress that should ease the situation for 🇺🇦.
🔥 Kreminna-Svatove: 🇷🇺 sources claiming that the road Svatove-Kreminna is unusable, cut by 🇺🇦.
🔥 Air strikes:
Shelling of cities Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Nikopol. Over 70 missiles launched today, 86% intercepted. Power infrastructure was not damaged, there are planned disconnects. Today, excellent collaboration between energy workers and the military.
Repeatedly, 🇷🇺 has thrown out $0.5 billion with near zero results. Part of secondary infrastructure was damaged, but it is being compensated. Outages lasted for 2 hours.
The Kremlin should start to realize that repeatedly wasting strategic weapon reserves on targets that don’t even have tactical significance is pure idiocy.
Accounting for black-market parts, 🇷🇺 can produce about 40 missiles per quarter, which is nothing compared to current usage.
🔥 Explosions in Russian air bases:
Two explosions happened in air bases of Dyagilevo (minimum 1 aircraft damaged) and Engels-2 (2 completely destroyed, one significantly damaged). Possibly, this is the reason why only 70 missiles instead of the usual 100 hit 🇺🇦 today. Rumors of new 🇺🇦 drones with a range up to the Kremlin, but Arestovych thinks that it is a smoking accident. 🇷🇺 military command got a lot of blame today for issues with air-defense. Most of 🇷🇺 S-300 and S-400 systems are in 🇺🇦 attacking land targets. 🇷🇺 strategic bombers are defenseless. Today’s destruction (4) is 1/5th of 🇷🇺 active strategic bombers, and they can’t be built anymore. It is also very complicated to rebase due to storage, servicing personnel, hardware, and buildings.
🇺🇸 The White House comments don’t express negativity to those explosions.
🇺🇦 Podolyak commented that Earth is round, and missiles launched from 🇷🇺 can fly around Earth and return to 🇷🇺.
🔥 Zaporozhye NPP:
The IAEA says there is a chance of 🇷🇺 leaving the territory of the NPP. 🇷🇺 denies giving away control of the NPP. The topic of 🇷🇺 giving it up was started by 🇷🇺 media, and it is now being silenced.
🇷🇺 wants to leave the NPP because it can become a trap. If 🇺🇦 forces advance 30km, Enerhodar supplies become problematic. If 50-60km, it becomes cut off.
🔥 Missile in Moldova:
It’s not the first time that missiles targeted at 🇺🇦 have fallen in 🇲🇩 Moldova. There haven’t been any strong responses before.
🔥 Crimea bridge:
Video of Putin driving through the bridge, however, a passenger car is much lighter than trucks. There are no videos from the rail bridge, and the railway is much more needed for supplies. This smells like the Kherson situation.
Most modest 🇷🇺 estimates for fixing the rail bridge are by March. Foreign experts estimate up to September.
🔥 Oil embargo:
The embargo starting today might take up to 30 days to finish existing deals and routes. The price cap of $60 per barrel will be reviewed in 2 months.
🔥 Putin’s planned visit in Donbas:
Zelensky is regularly on the front-line. After multiple failures, the situation is so bad, that Putin needs to cheer up soldiers. Unknown, if he will arrive in person, or send one of his duplicates. 🇺🇦 reconnaissance is waiting.
🔥 Wagner member captured:
He is requesting to not be exchanged, due to fear of the death penalty.
It is a big problem, and possibly he will be transferred to international organizations, in order to avoid threats to 🇺🇦 POWs.
🔥 Terrorist threats:
Packages with animal organs continue to arrive at embassies.
There were several explosive packages in 🇪🇸 Spain. 🇷🇺 will continue to probe and check for reactions. NATO’s disadvantage is, that it is only prepared to react to proven open aggression, not sneaky 🇷🇺 terror, chemical weapons, etc.
Western politicians don’t want to take responsibility, Putin will keep using these methods for a while.
The easiest solution is to give 🇺🇦 more weapons.
🔥 Warnings before war:
Zelensky: 🇺🇸 U.S. didn’t provide official warnings before war. 🇺🇦 Intelligence did report possible attacks already in October 2021. There will be a lot of interesting information revealed by future investigators and historians, especially for the period from February to the 15th of May, when the first Ramstein meeting happened.