Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis:ย @savaadaak
English voice-over video byย Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
๐ฅ Battlefield update:
๐ฅ Zaporozhye: reports of ๐ท๐บ regrouping, likely they are building a defense.
๐ฅ Avdiivka-Bakhmut: ๐ท๐บ trying to capture Donetsk district, which is impossible. ๐ท๐บ won’t capture even Bakhmut or Avdiivka, but they were trying hard. They rushed to capture them, before ๐บ๐ฆ forces become available after liberating Kherson. ๐ท๐บ once again didn’t realize their objectives and lost initiative.
On the 10th month of largest continental war since WW2, with high stakes, ๐ท๐บ military are publicly arguing between themselves for 3rd day in row, if they have captured Kurdiumivka or not.
๐ท๐บ will restore and replenish their units, and attempt again, but they have lost ability to complete objectives. There are 8 ๐บ๐ฆ brigades becoming available from Kherson, that’s it.
๐ฅ Predictions:
Likely ๐ท๐บ will attempt to advance in east, get kicked back, loose offensive potential and switch to defense. Then something like Kharkiv or Kherson operation (or two) will happen during winter, and in February ๐ท๐บ solders will be “warm”. Any idiot in ๐ท๐บ will understand, that war is lost by then. War can still last quite a while after that, but nobody would believe in victory, or even acceptable format of loss by ๐ท๐บ anymore.
๐ฅ Wagner and mobilized:
๐ท๐บ concentrated all possible forces after Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, they got everything – all artillery, all aviation, all tanks, broke the constitution and international laws to recruit criminals in order to show how to capture Bakhmut, and now nothing.
Mobilized can’t capture anything, they can only do simple tasks of attacking or defending in straight line. For battalion to perform 2-step action, they need training of 4 months, that can perhaps be reduced to 2 months with very talented commanders. 2 weeks for draftees gives nothing.
๐ฅ National units:
Freedom of Russia Legion is fighting near Bakhmut, about week ago they cleaned out Wagner support point completely. One member of FoR legion killed, several wounded.
Bashkirian company established, separate from Freedom of Russia Legion.
There also is Turkic battalion named Turan.
๐ฅ Biden-Macron meeting
Macron: ๐ซ๐ท and ๐บ๐ธ will not push for negotiations with ๐ท๐บ.
Biden: Look, there’s one way for this war to end, the rational way, Putin to pull out of Ukraine, number one. But it appears he’s not going to do that. He’s paying a very heavy price for failing to do it. But he’s inflicting incredible, incredible carnage on the civilian population of Ukraine, bombing nurseries, hospitals, children’s homes. It’s sick what he’s doing. But the fact of the matter is, I have no immediate plans to contact Mr. Putin. Mr. Putin is– let me choose my words very carefully. I’m prepared to speak with Mr. Putin if in fact, there is an interest in him deciding he’s looking for a way to end the war. He hasn’t done that yet. If that’s the case, in consultation with my French and my NATO friends, I’ll be happy to sit down with Putin to see what he wants, has in mind. He hasn’t done that yet.
In the meantime, I think it’s absolutely critical what [? Emmanuel ?] said. We must support Ukrainian people. The idea that Putin is ever going to defeat Ukraine is beyond comprehension. [full transcript]
๐ฅ International court
๐ซ๐ท France organizing international court. Peskov: Attempts to create tribunal will not be legitimate and recognized by ๐ท๐บ.
Creation of tribunal through ๐บ๐ณU.N Security council is impossible, due to ๐ท๐บ having veto power, however ๐ซ๐ท organized tribunal will be legitimate in countries of participants (could be ๐บ๐ธ and ๐ช๐บ).
As none of existing courts have jurisdiction to trial government of independent country, there is separate tribunal created for one-time.
Universal justice doesn’t allow for predetermined decisions. ๐บ๐ณ is weak, and it’s impossible for everyone to agree on universal values.
Simonyan and others are constantly mentioning Hague tribunal, it seems they are on acceptance stage.
๐ฅ Bakhmut:
Smartest russians have already realized lack of perspective and guaranteed loss, trying to motivate with fear. ๐ท๐บ couldn’t capture Bakhmut with concentrating 40 BTGs, artillery advantage 10 to 1 against 2 ๐บ๐ฆ brigades (equal to 6 BTGs).
๐ฅ Sanctions:
๐ท๐บ propagandists stating, that sanctions will only work for 5 years.
However sanctions cut off possible routes of future development. ๐ท๐บ could have developed high technologies or new methods of oil extraction, but now they are impossible due to limits of technology imports. Sanctions work for decades in future against income of hostile government.
๐ฅ Investigations in Russia:
Feygin plans to create special authority to investigators and courts in future ๐ท๐บ, to avoid investigations being dragged for years, if focusing on procedure instead of justice.
๐ฅ Mail bombs:
Mail bomb exploded at ๐บ๐ฆ Embassy in ๐ช๐ธ Spain. Another mail bomb was received at military base. ๐ช๐ธ Spanish company supplying weapons received another mail bomb. ๐ช๐ธ MoD M. Robles expressed continuation of support to ๐บ๐ฆ. ๐ท๐บ is doing everything to be labeled as terrorist, and not have anyone doing business with them.
๐ฅ Weapons:
๐บ๐ธ Biden requests new assistance package, valued $31.7 bn from which $21 bn to weapons, the rest for direct economic assistance.
๐บ๐ธ 6 new NASAMS systems
๐ฎ๐น Italy extended plans of weapon supplies for all of 2023
๐ฉ๐ช Germany prepared another package of assistance, including 7 Gepard air-defense systems, 100k medkits, 3 bridge-laying tanks, 8 drone ships, 14 vehicles for border guards, 14k sleeping bags, 30 ambulances and spare parts for Mi-24 helicopters
Nobody is limiting their supplies, it’s only about availability now.
๐ฅ Losses:
In follow up to yesterday’s question, ๐บ๐ฆ M. Podolyak stated that ๐บ๐ฆ losses are between 10k and 13k killed. This is now confirmed as official.
๐ท๐บ losses can be figured, by reverting what ๐ท๐บ claims as ๐บ๐ฆ losses. Shoigu said 59300 on 29th of September.
