Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
🔥 Battlefield update:
🔥 Kherson: Artillery duels across river, 🇺🇦 more successful due to longer range, guided munition and use of HIMARS.
🔥 Tokmak-Polohy: several large hits of 🇷🇺 facilities, over 500 killed, 50 vehicles destroyed.
🔥 Vuhledar: 🇷🇺 reports of not holding Pavlivka.
🔥 Marinka: 🇷🇺 attack attempts, 🇺🇦 hitting in response.
🔥 Avdiivka: 🇷🇺 attempting to encircle for 10th month, at south from Spartak-Opytne and at north from Verkhnotoretske-Kamianka.
🔥 Kurdiumivka: 🇷🇺 rushed to report capturing it, but then recalled. 🇷🇺 hoping to reach road Konstantynivka-Bakhmut and encircle it.
🔥 Soledar: strong 🇷🇺 attempts
🔥 Bilohorivka-Spirne: usual 🇷🇺 attack attempts
🔥 Kreminna-Svatove: local battles, attacks from both sides, no significant changes.
🔥 Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Nikopol, Zaporozhye, Kherson: getting shelled
🔥 NATO meeting in Bucharest:
🇩🇪 O. Scholz – 🇷🇺 can’t win war in battlefield.
Even Putin knows, he has lost, it’s only about price of loss. 🇺🇦 is not buying, it’s fighting for capitulation, with conditions that 🇷🇺 immediately leaves, pays reparations, extradite war criminals, denuclearization.
🔥 World post-Russia:
🇺🇸 refusing to provide long range weapons to avoid further escalation. Their task is for conflict to be controllable. Money is only allocated to strategic plans and goals – and currently there are none. They can’t imagine world post-Russia, and can only vaguely guess post-Putin. Their goals are to not create more harm, as long as war is going in right direction, leaving them time for reaction.
However 1.5 months before USSR collapse, CIA report stated that USSR will last at least until 2020.
There needs to be a figure equal to Churchill or Roosevelt, willing to push for big goals – world post-Russia, or it’s denuclearization.
🔥 Day of radio-technical forces:
They see enemy bombers taking off, they assign targets. If not for them, there would be less missiles intercepted.
🔥 Transformations of the West:
West shows wonders in their transformations – Germany, France, Italy – all making fantastic changes. 🇩🇪 Steinmeier was calling for peace and following Minsk agreements for last 8 years, even if it requires 🇺🇦 another concession. Today he understands, that another peace treaty will only be abused by 🇷🇺 to regain forces.
It’s better than expected, and better than it was at 24th-28th of February.
🇺🇸 Biden ready for military solutions to deny 🇮🇷 Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. Right now there are no 🇮🇷 missiles, nor new drones in 🇺🇦. Apparently consequences were explained to 🇮🇷.
Discussions of labeling Wagner as terrorist organization.
🇺🇸 White house thinks recognizing 🇷🇺 as terrorism sponsor might be worse for 🇺🇦. 🇺🇸 doesn’t want to limit and confront 🇮🇳 India and 🇨🇳 China.
However 🇪🇺 E.U. Parliament and NATO Assembly did recognize 🇷🇺 as terrorism sponsor. 🇺🇸 wants to keep control, and slowly tighten grip, but everyone had enough of Wagner.
Exact losses are national secret, as it allows enemy to evaluate efficiency and make strategic decisions. Approximate numbers were called by Zaluzhniy, Zelensky.
Unofficially Arestovych can tell that 🇺🇦 losses are between 10k and 20k killed. 🇺🇦 has high sanitary losses – it’s when solder is removed from battle for more than 1 day. 96% of wounded and ill are returned to service.
There exists following types of losses:
– non-returning: killed, POW, lost, died before reaching hospital
– sanitary: lost battle capabilities for more than 1 day
NATO has different types of causalities.
🇷🇺 has ratio of 1 killed to 1-2 wounded (occasionally 1:3), their medical care, equipment and evacuation times are terrible.
🇷🇺 has much more killed. Ratio of approximately 1 🇺🇦 killed to 7-7.5 🇷🇺 killed.
🇷🇺 total losses are over 100k killed and over 100k wounded.
🇺🇦 could have about 100k total wounded and killed, from which 80k are wounded and 72k returned to service.
Blinken: NATO and allies have supplied military assistance worth $40 bn, and will continue to assist. This includes transportation costs, training, servicing and repairs.
Compared to 🇬🇷 Greece receiving € 200 bn during 2008 crisis, it’s not difficult to provide 🇺🇦 with 400 bn worth of assistance, even more if most of that money is spent in western companies. The problem is, that they don’t see why, process is already being controlled.
🇬🇪 former president M. Saakashvili (now having 🇺🇦 citizenship) being on trial in 🇬🇪 Georgia. From the 🇬🇪 point of view – he is being accused of multiple crimes, corruption, etc. He is also feared and hated by current government. They are afraid to kill him, but also afraid to set him free, thus he is kept in bad conditions, possibly getting poisoned, not receiving adequate medical treatment. Arestovych personally would suggest to send him to third country to provide treatment, while keeping him under arrest. Current situation shows inability of government to make adequate decisions.