Day 280, November 30th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast

Posted on 01 December 2022

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by Atis

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis:ย @savaadaak

English voice-over video byย Privateer Station:

Original video in Russian:

๐Ÿ”ฅ Battlefield update:

๐Ÿ”ฅ Kherson: Artillery duels across river, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ more successful due to longer range, guided munition and use of HIMARS.
๐Ÿ”ฅ Tokmak-Polohy: several large hits of ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ facilities, over 500 killed, 50 vehicles destroyed.
๐Ÿ”ฅ Vuhledar: ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ reports of not holding Pavlivka.
๐Ÿ”ฅ Marinka: ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ attack attempts, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ hitting in response.
๐Ÿ”ฅ Avdiivka: ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ attempting to encircle for 10th month, at south from Spartak-Opytne and at north from Verkhnotoretske-Kamianka.
๐Ÿ”ฅ Kurdiumivka: ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ rushed to report capturing it, but then recalled. ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ hoping to reach road Konstantynivka-Bakhmut and encircle it.
๐Ÿ”ฅ Soledar: strong ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ attempts
๐Ÿ”ฅ Bilohorivka-Spirne: usual ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ attack attempts
๐Ÿ”ฅ Kreminna-Svatove: local battles, attacks from both sides, no significant changes.
๐Ÿ”ฅ Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Nikopol, Zaporozhye, Kherson: getting shelled

๐Ÿ”ฅ NATO meeting in Bucharest:

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช O. Scholz – ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ can’t win war in battlefield.
Even Putin knows, he has lost, it’s only about price of loss. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ is not buying, it’s fighting for capitulation, with conditions that ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ immediately leaves, pays reparations, extradite war criminals, denuclearization.

๐Ÿ”ฅ World post-Russia:

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ refusing to provide long range weapons to avoid further escalation. Their task is for conflict to be controllable. Money is only allocated to strategic plans and goals – and currently there are none. They can’t imagine world post-Russia, and can only vaguely guess post-Putin. Their goals are to not create more harm, as long as war is going in right direction, leaving them time for reaction.
However 1.5 months before USSR collapse, CIA report stated that USSR will last at least until 2020.
There needs to be a figure equal to Churchill or Roosevelt, willing to push for big goals – world post-Russia, or it’s denuclearization.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Day of radio-technical forces:

They see enemy bombers taking off, they assign targets. If not for them, there would be less missiles intercepted.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Transformations of the West:

West shows wonders in their transformations – Germany, France, Italy – all making fantastic changes. ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Steinmeier was calling for peace and following Minsk agreements for last 8 years, even if it requires ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ another concession. Today he understands, that another peace treaty will only be abused by ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ to regain forces.
It’s better than expected, and better than it was at 24th-28th of February.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Iran:

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Biden ready for military solutions to deny ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. Right now there are no ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท missiles, nor new drones in ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ. Apparently consequences were explained to ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Terrorism:

Discussions of labeling Wagner as terrorist organization.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ White house thinks recognizing ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ as terrorism sponsor might be worse for ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ doesn’t want to limit and confront ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India and ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China.
However ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ E.U. Parliament and NATO Assembly did recognize ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ as terrorism sponsor. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ wants to keep control, and slowly tighten grip, but everyone had enough of Wagner.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Losses:

Exact losses are national secret, as it allows enemy to evaluate efficiency and make strategic decisions. Approximate numbers were called by Zaluzhniy, Zelensky.
Unofficially Arestovych can tell that ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ losses are between 10k and 20k killed. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ has high sanitary losses – it’s when solder is removed from battle for more than 1 day. 96% of wounded and ill are returned to service.
There exists following types of losses:
– non-returning: killed, POW, lost, died before reaching hospital
– sanitary: lost battle capabilities for more than 1 day
NATO has different types of causalities.
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ has ratio of 1 killed to 1-2 wounded (occasionally 1:3), their medical care, equipment and evacuation times are terrible.
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ has much more killed. Ratio of approximately 1 ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ killed to 7-7.5 ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ killed.
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ total losses are over 100k killed and over 100k wounded.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ could have about 100k total wounded and killed, from which 80k are wounded and 72k returned to service.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Assistance:

Blinken: NATO and allies have supplied military assistance worth $40 bn, and will continue to assist. This includes transportation costs, training, servicing and repairs.
Compared to ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece receiving โ‚ฌ 200 bn during 2008 crisis, it’s not difficult to provide ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ with 400 bn worth of assistance, even more if most of that money is spent in western companies. The problem is, that they don’t see why, process is already being controlled.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Georgia:

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช former president M. Saakashvili (now having ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ citizenship) being on trial in ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช Georgia. From the ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช point of view – he is being accused of multiple crimes, corruption, etc. He is also feared and hated by current government. They are afraid to kill him, but also afraid to set him free, thus he is kept in bad conditions, possibly getting poisoned, not receiving adequate medical treatment. Arestovych personally would suggest to send him to third country to provide treatment, while keeping him under arrest. Current situation shows inability of government to make adequate decisions.

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