Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis:ย @savaadaak
English voice-over video byย Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
๐ฅ Battlefield update:
๐ฅ Kherson: Artillery duels across river, ๐บ๐ฆ more successful due to longer range, guided munition and use of HIMARS.
๐ฅ Tokmak-Polohy: several large hits of ๐ท๐บ facilities, over 500 killed, 50 vehicles destroyed.
๐ฅ Vuhledar: ๐ท๐บ reports of not holding Pavlivka.
๐ฅ Marinka: ๐ท๐บ attack attempts, ๐บ๐ฆ hitting in response.
๐ฅ Avdiivka: ๐ท๐บ attempting to encircle for 10th month, at south from Spartak-Opytne and at north from Verkhnotoretske-Kamianka.
๐ฅ Kurdiumivka: ๐ท๐บ rushed to report capturing it, but then recalled. ๐ท๐บ hoping to reach road Konstantynivka-Bakhmut and encircle it.
๐ฅ Soledar: strong ๐ท๐บ attempts
๐ฅ Bilohorivka-Spirne: usual ๐ท๐บ attack attempts
๐ฅ Kreminna-Svatove: local battles, attacks from both sides, no significant changes.
๐ฅ Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Nikopol, Zaporozhye, Kherson: getting shelled
๐ฅ NATO meeting in Bucharest:
๐ฉ๐ช O. Scholz – ๐ท๐บ can’t win war in battlefield.
Even Putin knows, he has lost, it’s only about price of loss. ๐บ๐ฆ is not buying, it’s fighting for capitulation, with conditions that ๐ท๐บ immediately leaves, pays reparations, extradite war criminals, denuclearization.
๐ฅ World post-Russia:
๐บ๐ธ refusing to provide long range weapons to avoid further escalation. Their task is for conflict to be controllable. Money is only allocated to strategic plans and goals – and currently there are none. They can’t imagine world post-Russia, and can only vaguely guess post-Putin. Their goals are to not create more harm, as long as war is going in right direction, leaving them time for reaction.
However 1.5 months before USSR collapse, CIA report stated that USSR will last at least until 2020.
There needs to be a figure equal to Churchill or Roosevelt, willing to push for big goals – world post-Russia, or it’s denuclearization.
๐ฅ Day of radio-technical forces:
They see enemy bombers taking off, they assign targets. If not for them, there would be less missiles intercepted.
๐ฅ Transformations of the West:
West shows wonders in their transformations – Germany, France, Italy – all making fantastic changes. ๐ฉ๐ช Steinmeier was calling for peace and following Minsk agreements for last 8 years, even if it requires ๐บ๐ฆ another concession. Today he understands, that another peace treaty will only be abused by ๐ท๐บ to regain forces.
It’s better than expected, and better than it was at 24th-28th of February.
๐ฅ Iran:
๐บ๐ธ Biden ready for military solutions to deny ๐ฎ๐ท Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. Right now there are no ๐ฎ๐ท missiles, nor new drones in ๐บ๐ฆ. Apparently consequences were explained to ๐ฎ๐ท.
๐ฅ Terrorism:
Discussions of labeling Wagner as terrorist organization.
๐บ๐ธ White house thinks recognizing ๐ท๐บ as terrorism sponsor might be worse for ๐บ๐ฆ. ๐บ๐ธ doesn’t want to limit and confront ๐ฎ๐ณ India and ๐จ๐ณ China.
However ๐ช๐บ E.U. Parliament and NATO Assembly did recognize ๐ท๐บ as terrorism sponsor. ๐บ๐ธ wants to keep control, and slowly tighten grip, but everyone had enough of Wagner.
๐ฅ Losses:
Exact losses are national secret, as it allows enemy to evaluate efficiency and make strategic decisions. Approximate numbers were called by Zaluzhniy, Zelensky.
Unofficially Arestovych can tell that ๐บ๐ฆ losses are between 10k and 20k killed. ๐บ๐ฆ has high sanitary losses – it’s when solder is removed from battle for more than 1 day. 96% of wounded and ill are returned to service.
There exists following types of losses:
– non-returning: killed, POW, lost, died before reaching hospital
– sanitary: lost battle capabilities for more than 1 day
NATO has different types of causalities.
๐ท๐บ has ratio of 1 killed to 1-2 wounded (occasionally 1:3), their medical care, equipment and evacuation times are terrible.
๐ท๐บ has much more killed. Ratio of approximately 1 ๐บ๐ฆ killed to 7-7.5 ๐ท๐บ killed.
๐ท๐บ total losses are over 100k killed and over 100k wounded.
๐บ๐ฆ could have about 100k total wounded and killed, from which 80k are wounded and 72k returned to service.
๐ฅ Assistance:
Blinken: NATO and allies have supplied military assistance worth $40 bn, and will continue to assist. This includes transportation costs, training, servicing and repairs.
Compared to ๐ฌ๐ท Greece receiving โฌ 200 bn during 2008 crisis, it’s not difficult to provide ๐บ๐ฆ with 400 bn worth of assistance, even more if most of that money is spent in western companies. The problem is, that they don’t see why, process is already being controlled.
๐ฅ Georgia:
๐ฌ๐ช former president M. Saakashvili (now having ๐บ๐ฆ citizenship) being on trial in ๐ฌ๐ช Georgia. From the ๐ฌ๐ช point of view – he is being accused of multiple crimes, corruption, etc. He is also feared and hated by current government. They are afraid to kill him, but also afraid to set him free, thus he is kept in bad conditions, possibly getting poisoned, not receiving adequate medical treatment. Arestovych personally would suggest to send him to third country to provide treatment, while keeping him under arrest. Current situation shows inability of government to make adequate decisions.
