Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Anastasiya: @Anastasiya1451A
Artillery duels continue. Ukraine has had more success with at least two large hits on Russian forces in the last 24h, with Russia sustaining heavy losses.
Ukrainian reinforcements arrived, aiding the Ukrainian defence. Russia stopped mentioning Vuhledar in their military reports as it’s hard to confess to failure.
🔥Mariinka, Horlivka & Avdievka
Clashes continue. Russia continues to attack Ukrainian defences near Mariinka, Pesky, Vodjanoe and Kamenka. Russian troops are trying to cut the road supplying Horlivka but will probably fail.
Russian forces are trying to advance near Avdievka attempting to partially surround Bakhmut. The Russian reinforcements transferred forces from Soledar to the Bakhmut to achieve some success. This is a part of the Russian aim to occupy the whole Donetsk region (current operational aim). Arestovych suggests that the Russian plans will fail here too.
The situation remains difficult as Russia has 9 times more artillery concentrated in the area. Ukrainian tank forces are essential for the defence of Bakhmut, working both as tank forces and artillery.
Reports of Ukrainian forces advancing in some areas near Svatove & Kreminna. The majority of clashes are tactical operations.
🔥Russia preparing for a massive missile strike
Russia is probably training and/or preparing for another massive strike on Ukrainian critical infrastructure. Russian airplanes were in the air for 4h, leading to the air-raid alert in Ukraine, but the attack didn’t happen yet.
Simultaneously, Russian IL-22 planes were in the air, probably performing surveillance and trying to sot Ukrainian anti-air-defences that massively decrease the current efficiency of Russian missile strikes on Ukraine – 70 out of 90 Russian missiles are intercepted by Ukrainian air-defence.
Russian sources report on the shelling of Russian military targets in the Kursk region – probably another clash between the “Kursk People’s Republic” and “Belgorod People’s Republic”. Ukraine is lamenting this bloodshed and is offering its services as an intermediary in the negotiations between the “KPR” and “BPR”.
🔥NATO summit in Bucharest
NATO secretary Stoltenberg has stated that the question of Ukraine joining the alliance is completely adequate but may need to wait until the end of the war.
NATO is condemning the Russian attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure that leaves millions of Ukrainian civilians without basic human needs during the winter.
NATO does and will continue to support Ukraine. The main objectives of NATO right now are the supply of weapons to Ukraine and the restoration & defence of Ukrainian electrical infrastructure from the Russian missile attacks.
The key messages from NATO:
– Condemnation of Russian war crimes
– Continuation & increase of military support for Ukraine
– Defence of Finland and Sweden while they are ascending to NATO
– NATO will continue to support Ukraine and Georgia in their decision to join the alliance in the future
🔥No negotiations with Russia
German President Steinmeier stressed that there will be no recognition of the annexation of Ukrainian territories by Russian aggressors. There will be no ceasefire, negotiations or peace deals to appease Russia. Any concessions to the aggressors and invaders will only encourage further aggression from Russia or similar totalitarian regimes.
Thus, after months of speculation and Russian employing all possible tricks to trigger the West pressuring Ukraine into negotiation and ceasefire (e.g. Minsk 3), the West has stated that there will be no appeasing of Russian aggressors or negotiations on Russian terms.
🔥NATO salesman of the year
Putin should indeed receive the “NATO salesman of the Year” award for “motivating historically neutral countries of Finland and Sweden to join NATO, rearming the Ukrainian army to the NATO standard, revitalising NATO alliance, American and European military complexes, eventually losing all the occupied territories while at the same time killing 100k of Russian troops and destroying the Russian army”.
🔥The US vs Wagner mercenary
Not only Prigozhin is wanted by the FBI but the US Government also started collecting data on Wagner mercenaries and their organizational structure. This is a potential preparation to declare Wagner mercenary group as a terrorist organization. Wagner has committed a large number of war crimes, not just in Ukraine but also in Mali and Syria. Therefore, it will be probably declared a terrorist organization.
Russia continues to pressure Lukashenko into entering the war. Nevertheless, the key question remains – “Is Belarus ready to enter the war?”. The answer is still a “ No.”.
Not just the motivation, but the combat readiness of the Belarusian troops remains very low.
🔥Medvedev threatening NATO
Medvedev is threatening NATO and claims that if NATO supplies Ukraine with Patriot complexes Russia will target them. In reality, Medvedev is just stating Russian frustration and attempting to prevent the supply of long-range weapons to Ukraine (e.g. ATACMS). Russia is afraid of NATO and afraid of NATO arming Ukraine with better weapons.
🔥The US and Germany aiding the restoration of the Ukrainian electrical grid
The US is giving Ukraine $53M and another $56M is coming from Germany to supply Ukraine with transformers and other key parts for the repair of the Ukrainian electrical grid.
While Russia can still organise another 10 massive attacks on Ukrainian electrical infrastructure, the Ukrainian electrical grid was constructed to withstand nuclear war and will endure the Russian attacks.
🔥Middle and long-range missiles for Ukraine
While the Latvian Foreign Minister suggested that Ukraine could target Russian airfields, Ukraine still needs to receive long-range weapons.
It’s reasonable to allow Ukraine to target the Russian military bases from where Russia launches attacks on Ukrainian civilians. Ukraine will eventually receive these weapons, so, why the unnecessary delay that only prolongs the suffering of Ukrainian civilians?
🔥China is in big trouble
China is experiencing major popular protests, mainly due to very strict anti-COVID rules, cyber-concentration camp model, and police state. This is exacerbated by other factors:
– a real estate market bubble
– a demographic crisis as the population is ageing
– Xi re-election for the third term and transition to the dictatorship
– Division and rivalry between cities and villages
– End of the current development model and slowing down of the economic growth
The protests and unstable situation in China, as well as Erdogan preparing for the military operation in Syria, are major international geopolitical factors that need to be considered.
Next stream on Wednesday, 30th of November.