Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
🔥 Battlefield update:
Artillery duels, 🇺🇦 having an advantage due to HIMARS availability, however, shelling will continue, until 🇷🇺 is pushed back several 10s of kilometers.
Request to not ignore alerts and stay in bomb shelters, 17 civilians died in the last couple of days. Sirens are useless, as shells take 30 seconds between firing and hitting.
still clashes, 🇷🇺 not having success. Some 🇺🇦 actions interrupted chances to capture Vuhledar for foreseeable future.
Active battles, especially southwest from Horlivka where 🇷🇺 have concentrated forces – regular, Wagner, draftees, and attempting to break frontline and cut off road Konstantynivka-Avdiivka.
Familiar picture, several attacks during daylight, and several more layers [of bodies] in front of trenches.
An initiative of 🇺🇦, by short tactical level counter-attacks.
🔥 Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Nikopol, Zaporozhye:
Periodic bombing by 🇷🇺
🔥 Putin’s fake meeting with mothers:
According to Albert Speer, democracies can be harsh against their citizens during the war, but dictators are heavily dependent on population mood. This is why Putin makes regular fake meetings, pretends to listen to the population, and implements their desires. As mobilization discontent has reached significant levels, Putin himself pretends to address that. It’s possible that another wave of mobilization will happen.
There was mention of issues with winter uniforms. There are reports of 🇷🇺 soldiers in 🇮🇷 Iran uniforms.
Infantry, sitting in mud will curse at commanders, logistics, and neighbors. Commanders at all levels curse Putin. However, 80% of citizens either support war or Putin or are in a state where it’s humiliating to not finish it. Perception of separate problematic issues is due to a lack of information.
🔥 Lack of information:
During the last trip to Europe, Arestovych met some people who called for “sober evaluations” of Bucha, Irpin, etc. They will have a separate boiler for them in hell. Apparently, they live in a separate information bubble. When confronted with proof of 90+ bodies in the Kherson city administration building, they tend to blame some individuals, instead of admitting systematic murder. This happens in Europe, even where enough information is present.
Even in Izium, there were people, who haven’t heard of the Bucha massacre 6 or 7 months later. Having access to phones and the internet doesn’t mean that everyone has access to information, to make informed decisions.
Russian population with constant propaganda has even less idea of what’s actually happening. Even people who understand horror, crimes, and everything, would support finishing war, as 🇷🇺 loss is unimaginable.
🇧🇾 minister of foreign affairs V. Makei, a close supporter of Lukashenka, died at age of 64. Likely his death was not a warning, as that would lead to a significant increase in security. It will be interesting to watch the consequences – who will be the new minister. Likely there won’t be significant international changes.
Threat from 🇷🇺 exists for over 20 years, it comes together with Lukashenka power.
🇧🇾 Belarus doesn’t join the war, because their military has taken a strong position of not joining the war. Makei would not have any influence in this.
🔥 Lavrov’s comments:
Lavrov predicts the failure of 🇺🇦 to liberate Crimea. Kremlin’s officials are used to mimic the speech of simple people, as a man in a smoking area would.
Countries with 60% of the world economy will anyway win over a country with a 1.5% share, no matter how long it takes.
Every Ukrainian understands the direct relation between Holodomor in 1932-1933 and the attempt at Holodomor in 2022. 🇷🇺 has changed multiple governments, but politics remain the same. Everyone understands what they are fighting for, everyone has centuries-old stories told by grandparents.
🇷🇺 has already retreated 5 times – Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kharkiv district, Kherson – only 5 more such retreats remaining until they break.
Putin and Lavrov are only trading for the price of their defeat.
🇷🇺 Army restoration is expected to be completed in January/February. When restored 🇷🇺 units will fail, 🇷🇺 has no further options. Their negotiating will be about capitulation then. Soon after that, there will be unconditional capitulation.
As soon as 🇺🇦 forces will reach Crimea entry, the Kerch bridge will be in the HIMARS range. Any supply ships and aircraft will be in the range too.
It will all start with the evacuation of FSB and officials, which is about to happen sooner than expected.
End of thread.