Day 211, September 22. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast

Posted on 23 September 2022

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by Atis

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis:ย @savaadaak

English voice-over video byย Privateer Station:

Original video in Russian:

Battlefield update:

๐Ÿ”ฅ Sumy, Chernihiv:

Artillery shelling almost every day, no risk of attacks. Some ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ counter-artillery work.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Lyman:

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ sources panicking about Lyman getting encircled. According to their reports ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ has reached Ridkodub and Korovii Yar. For actual encirclement ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ would need to reach Novoliubivka. Everything should be ok in couple of days. Rumors of ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ winning.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Bakhmut:

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ has created local artillery advantage, this is the only direction where ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ keeps attacking. They can only do that in 30km wide area out of 1300km front-line.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Horlivka-Marinka:

5-6 shellings per day, nothing significant. ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ has relocated forces to Bakhmut and Lyman

๐Ÿ”ฅ Zaporozhye:

only artillery and aviation shelling, no movements.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Kherson:

Kadyrovytes arrived, but their building got bombed, 40+ destroyed, 30 hospitalized. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ continues to bomb and weaken ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ forces in area.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Age of mobilized:

From videos, it appears average age of mobilized is over 40. Younger men without children, loans do have more options to escape. Older men might have dream of restoring USSR, more inertia.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Mobilized:

If mobilized solders are well prepared, they can replenish regular units who have core personnel remaining, making situation unpleasant for ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ.
Right now they are not ready, sending them to battle without motivation, preparations, integrating subdivisions will have near-zero value. Full integration from unit to brigade would take at least 2-3 months.

Capacity of ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ training grounds is 60-90k. Not everyone will go to battle units, part are needed in repairs, supplies, rear. First wave would fill in existing subdivisions, next wave would need to create new subdivisions, that needs equipment. ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ has used up 60% of their stored equipment, it’s partially broken. Such limited subdivisions could only be used in 2nd echelon, at some directions. Estimating ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ could create some 30-35 BTGs this way, adding some 30% to current 107 BTGs in ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Learning in battle:

It is extremely hard to prepare subdivisions, even when you have full assistance. To do so, while there are sabotages, lack of time, equipment, ammo is really hard challenge. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ has seen some non-prepared units, that were expected to “Learn in battle”, in week they got 30% causalities.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Perfect location for civil rebellion:

Anyone ready to protest, should go to Crimea. If anything happens, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ would destroy Black sea fleet, based in Crimea, thus eliminating ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ military presence. Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians could be in assistance . Guarding few entry points is much easier than anything in mainland. Anyone who couldn’t escape, should go to Crimea.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Rebellion:

A battalion of 400 armed and hungry men can easily rebel against superiors. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ officially states, that it will not fire at rebelling ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ units. If there would be attempts to suppress rebellion, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ would assist with firepower.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Barrier troops:

For 150k solders inclined for rebellion, you would need about 20k of barrier troops, to keep everyone afraid. Kadyrov and Rosguardyia won’t be able to provide that much.

๐Ÿ”ฅ POW exchange:

Exchange had huge work with Secret services of multiple countries involved, several ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ ministries. There couldn’t be worse blow on mobilization, than giving away Azov solders on same day. Three versions:
1) Putin is not controlling ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ anymore. Unknown if he is even alive.
2) Putin is simultaneously ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Chinese and ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ spy
3) Putin asked ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Erdogan for assisting with peace negotiations, and was asked to prove, he can be trusted.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Medvedchuk:

Before exchange, Medvedchuk told everything. Huge amount of agent networks were discovered. Questions asked by Feygin were answered too.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Protests:

Protests should happen near district administrations, blocking them, every day at 19:00. Everything is frightening, until you have decided to kick out first door.
After that, collapse of power is imminent. Multiple districts, and Rosguardia can’t do anything. Whole world is watching at you, we support you.

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