Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: https://twitter.com/Janat_H1

Battlefield Update 

The General Staff confirmed UA gained two footholds on the left bank of the Oskil river. Several settlements in the Liman direction are now under UA control. Liman is in imminent danger of being surrounded. 

Due to these advancements, UA might open up operational space to Svatove and approach the borders of the Luhansk region. This prompted the proxies to appeal to Russia for the referendum to ensure Luhansk borders are intact through a political move, if not by military means. 

Both sides race to gather potential. UA tries to expand its bridgehead on the left bank, transfer troops, create a stable grouping, and take Liman. RU tries to fortify its defense line Nizhnya Duvanka-Svatove-Kreminna and transfer its engineering units.  RU has limited time to create a stable line of defense and is short of troops to hold it. 

UA is likely to break through the defense line in several locations, which will collapse the northern Luhansk region. Belohirivka (Luhansk region, briefly under occupation) is already controlled by UA. 

RU still attempts to take all of the Donetsk region while losing the Luhansk territories. Taking Severodonetsk and Lysychansk took RU over 80 days, and now UA is threatening to retake them. To control all of the Donetsk region means taking at least 5 such cities and numerous smaller ones. 

RU still attempts to attack in the Soledar-Horlivka direction, pursuing political goals instead of retreating and transferring troops to Lysychansk-Severodonetsk, Liman, and Svatove to resist the UA offensive and prevent the shrinking of the so-called LPR to half its size. 

South: Destruction of a ferry with ammo in Kherson; enemy warehouses in Melitopol, Nova Kakhovka. 

President Zelensky, in his address, mentioned plans to inflict maximum damage on the enemy before winter. Something similar to the Kharkiv offensive might take place anywhere along the frontline.

Referendum

The statement about referenda in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories using nuclear blackmail does not put pressure on the AF of Ukraine. Shelling continues on the territory of the Russian Federation (Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh), yet nuclear weapon is not used. If it is used, UA forces will continue to fight and the USA will intervene. 

Future collapse of RU

Russian leadership transfers 25 bln dollars to Turkey, preparing for the internal collapse of Russia. Similar actions took place in 1917 and 1991. 

Pugacheva’s political statement

Arestovych discussed Alla Pugacheva’s anti-war statement, ignored by the Kremlin. A popular singer in her 70s, loved by both the people and by the system that repressed the people, an archetypal figure for Russia, a projection of the USSR, rebelled against the Russian Federation. 

Appeal to the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Fenedarion:

 

I ask you to enroll me in the ranks of foreign agents of my beloved country because I am in solidarity with my husband, an honest, decent, and sincere person, a true and incorruptible patriot of Russia, who wishes the Motherland prosperity, peaceful life, freedom of speech and an end to the death of our men for illusory goals which make our country an outcast and burden the lives of our citizens.

Alla Pugacheva

Pugacheva is part of the self-identification of millions of people in the 40+ age category in Russia and beyond. These 40+ provide legitimacy to Putin as someone who will restore what they lost. According to Arestovych, Pugacheva removed legitimacy from Putin. Putin’s Russia has nothing to do with Soviet Russia. 

Hungary

Hungary was warned by the European Commission that it might lose out on 7.5 bln euros of the bloc’s budget in response to inadequate statements by the ruling political forces represented by Prime Minister Orban. It was also given the status of partial democracy. According to Arestovych, the European Commission will not tolerate Hungary’s antics for long; options include either removal of Hungary from the EU or voting by a simple majority rather than consensus. 

Visa ban

The three Baltic countries closed the entry on tourist visas to citizens of the Russian Federation. Other EU countries continue to issue visas but make the process more problematic. This situation will only worsen in the future. Australia won’t ban its visas for RU tourists, yet more countries are expected to ban or limit visas soon. Visa bans inflict some damage, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine are the main battle force. 

Weapons

Germany will send 4 additional Panzer howitzers bringing the total number to 22 in Ukarine; supplied a battalion of armored vehicles; signed a contract for a new generation of howitzers in 2025. 

Arestovych: Germany should take advantage of testing out its weapons in a real war by sending more arms to Ukraine. The best marketing for German weapons will be “it defeated the Russian army” – German military industry will be guaranteed contracts for 20-30 years ahead. According to Scholtz, it was German weapons that played a decisive role in the Kharkiv offensive.

No stream on Tuesday.