Day 202, September 13. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin daily broadcast. Provided by https://twitter.com/Janat_H1
Svatove/Kreminna
RU sources complain UA continues storming Lyman, has new advances in the Siversk direction; the springboard near Borova, north of Slov’ansk and north-east of Izyum, has expanded and endangers Svatove. Svatove is a railway junction and the supply line to Sieverodonetsk and Starobilsk.
RU fears UA will attack Zarichne and Kreminna once Lyman falls. Danger of another front collapse is looming. No confirmation from official UA sources on any of these speculations.
Near Siversk, UA took many prisoners; new reserves from the so-called LPR are trying to stabilize the situation.
Bakhmut
RU claims it entered Bakhmut; UA General Staff denies it. This is the only 20 km in the 1390-km of the front line where RU attempts to advance.
Zaporizhzhie and Kherson
Armed Forces of Ukraine have accumulated large reserves in Zaporizhzhie, according to RU sources. In the Kherson direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine moved closer to Kherson from Posad Pokrovske along Highway M-14. Aviation, artillery, HIMARS strikes on the RU positions on the right bank of the Dnieper. Intercepted calls reveal heavy losses, no rotation, low morale.
Forbes’ summary
The counter-offensive operation continues. Forbes refers to UA General Staff in its summary report on UA counter-offensive for Sept 6-11:
– 2850 RU invaders destroyed
– 590 pieces of equipment destroyed (worth over $670 mln)
– 129 pieces of equipment captured (worth $104 mln)
The numbers above is what has been confirmed. In reality, Arestovych estimates UA captured at least 2 brigades worth of equipment: one tank brigade and one mechanised infantry brigade.
Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
The Azeri side is accomplishing goals from setback in 2020. The Armenian leadership requested help from Putin but unlikely to receive any. RU is not interested in confrontation with Azerbaijan and Turkey. The main destabilizing factor in the Caucases is the Russian Federation, which trades simultaneously with Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey.
Western weapons
President Zelensky has asked Washington to supply the necessary weapons to counter Russian terrorist attacks. Sholtz called Putin to criticize RU strikes on civil infrastructure, referendum attempts and to emphasize the urgency of total withdrawal of RU armed forces from UA territory. Germany will continue to supply arms to UA. The US announced its next tranche of $600 mln this week.
The Commander-in-Chief of the AF of Ukraine, Zaluzhny, is guided by the parity logic when requesting specific arms: UA must be able to deliver retaliatory strikes on the infrastructure of the Russian Federation if RU continues to strike UA even after RU troops withdraw from all Ukrainian territory. This parity will ensure RU stops its hostile activities.
Security Treaty
The Russians requested negotiations after the defeat in the Kharkov direction, but the Ukrainian side refused. Zelensky insists the only condition to resume talks is complete withdrawal of RU troops, including from Crimea and Donbass.
Arestovych commented on the goals of the new fundamental document being drafted by the Yermak-Rasmussen Committee. This document is called “The Kyiv Security Treaty” and provides framework for security guarantees to Ukraine. The framework completely changes the security system of Eastern Europe, Europe as a whole, and the entire world.
Main points:
1. Ukraine’s accession to NATO. The Security Treaty is in effect until the accession and states this as its main goal.
2. The main security guarantee of UA is its ability to defend itself: strong army, strong defenses to deter any planned hostilities. When under attack, within 24 hours UA receives military, political, financial, informational aid.
The document can potentially be used as a draft for other countries in similar situations: Moldova, Georgia, etc.
War crimes in deoccupied Kharkiv region
No Russian teachers were found in the de-occupied areas, but about 100 local teachers had gone through RU training and were teaching using RU curriculum. Ukrainian collaborators will be prosecuted. This sends a strong message to teachers in other occupied regions.
In newly de-occupied areas, evidence of torture and dozens of victims of targeted killings of Ukrainian citizens by the Russian military as part of systemic terror has already been found. It’s too early to make victim estimates at this time. The de-occupation measures continue.
