Day 199, September 10. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast.

Posted on 11 September 2022

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by Atis

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Anastasiya: @Anastasiya1451A

English voice-over video byย Privateer Station:

Original video in Russian:

Battlefield update:

Kharkiv๐Ÿ”ฅ๐Ÿ”ฅ

AFU continue their counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region and potentially in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The advance of ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ troops is conditioned only by the ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ commandโ€™s plan. For now, while ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ has resources to keep the counteroffensive advance rate ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ troops offer minimal resistance. It appears that the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ army lost the defence and attack potential. For now, the AFU captured tens of tanks, close to a hundred of APC and hundreds of ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ POWs.
The Russian failure to contain the Ukrainian counteroffensive is mostly due to the low density of troops โ€“ having only 170k along 1300km of the front-line between Kharkiv and Kherson. Another factor is that ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ tried to stop the counteroffensive by sending the reinforcement directly to the battlefield without prior organisation and resource concentration. Eventually, ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ forces will form some kind of new defence positions. Yet, after 5days of ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ counteroffensive, ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ command failed to organise 2nd line defences or initiate any defensive actions.
Due to better military skill and ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ command getting tricked into transferring reinforcements to the South, intel and high motivation, a smaller number of ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ troops managed to defeat the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ host of approx. 10k or 15 BTG between Kupyansk and Izium.
Official sources report that AFU approaches the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ borders in the North and Northeast of Kharkiv region.

Kherson๐Ÿ”ฅ

AFU continues advancing and liberating towns in the Kherson region. Further details will be communicated in official declaration.
Some of the most elite ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ troops are locked on the West bank of Dnipro River and cannot be easily relocated. While there is no loss of command, the 20k contingent in Kherson region wonโ€™t last long in absence of supply routes that are either destroyed or under ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ fire control.

Bahmut/Soledar direction

Based on reports from ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ sources, AFU may have penetrated deep into enemyโ€™s defences and ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ forces will be forced to retreat 40-50km and establish new defence line or face encirclement.

The perception of Russia in the West

For years, powered by gas and oil money, the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ propaganda machine and state was projecting for years an image of Putin as a โ€œthough manโ€ and ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ as a โ€œsuperpowerโ€ for years.
Yet, the failure of Putinโ€™s army in ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ and the fast ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ advance is demonstrating to even the most indecisive and appeasing Western that Putinโ€™s ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ is a failed, corrupt state and not a โ€œsuperpowerโ€.

Russian propaganda

While the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ many telegram channels reflect on the ground panic and demoralization amongst the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ troops and pro-war populace, the top-tier russian propagandists will try to control the narrative. Their response was as follows:
-Phase 1: Itโ€™s not a big deal
-Phase 2: Where are the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ reinforcements? The retaliation?
-Phase 3: Pause & silence
-Phase 4: Itโ€™s all part of the plan
This will be their tactic explaining the future abandonment of Donets/Luhansk regions and Crimea.

This will not work even if the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ manage to stop the ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ counteroffensive, as loss of occupied territories, impossibility of referendums and annexation discredits all the official ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ explanations for the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ invasion of ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ.
Even if ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ succeeds in retreating and establishing new defence positions, the explanation and purpose of the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ invasion of ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ remain elusive for the troops on the ground. Therefore, every soldier digging the second line ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ defences to try and stop the AFU advance should ask himself: โ€œWhat is he fighting and dying for in Ukraine?โ€.

Prospects

The ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ telegram channels are panicking and turning against the higher military and political leadership, reflecting the demoralising atmosphere in the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ troops.
Any additional counteroffensive attack in 3rd direction by the AFU will lead to further demoralisation and a complete collapse of ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ army logistics in Ukraine. The ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Army has a good chance to repeat the Napoleonic failure in the East and retreat chaotically from the occupied territories.

Potential sabotage of the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ generals

The ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ generals are facing the potential consequences of unwise and delusional political decisions by the Kremlin and the resulting ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ army failure in ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ. Therefore, they may refrain from initiative and resort to passive sabotage โ€“ avoiding the blame and deferring the military decisions to the political leadership. Yet, currently, there is no concrete evidence supporting this hypothesis.
The failure to establish new defence positions, concentrate, and introduce the reinforcements are signs of collapse of the front-line and loss of control. Furthermore, any attempt by russia to relocate the troops from any other part of the front-line to reinforce Kharkiv will result in a potential 3rd ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ counteroffensive in that direction.

Failure, discontent & scapegoating

The failure and futility of the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ invasion of ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ and the perceived betrayal by the political leadership (Putin, Shoigu) of those who full-heartedly believed in the โ€œRussian Springโ€ (e.g. Girkin) creates a dangerous environment in the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ populace. Putin will try to find a scapegoat amongst the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ generals and the so-called โ€œD/LPRโ€ leadership. At the same time, the generals have the incentive to nominate Putin himself as the main culprit of the catastrophic military and governance failure.
Thus, there is a potential for a union between ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ generals trying to avoid scapegoating, soldiers with PTSD and the disgruntled ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ patriots. As a result, the failure of the imperialistic war of conquest may transform into a civil war in russia.

No stream on 11.09.2022.




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