Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Anastasiya: @Anastasiya1451A
English voice-over video byย Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
Battlefield update:
Kharkiv๐ฅ๐ฅ
AFU continue their counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region and potentially in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The advance of ๐บ๐ฆ troops is conditioned only by the ๐บ๐ฆ commandโs plan. For now, while ๐บ๐ฆ has resources to keep the counteroffensive advance rate ๐ท๐บ troops offer minimal resistance. It appears that the ๐ท๐บ army lost the defence and attack potential. For now, the AFU captured tens of tanks, close to a hundred of APC and hundreds of ๐ท๐บ POWs.
The Russian failure to contain the Ukrainian counteroffensive is mostly due to the low density of troops โ having only 170k along 1300km of the front-line between Kharkiv and Kherson. Another factor is that ๐ท๐บ tried to stop the counteroffensive by sending the reinforcement directly to the battlefield without prior organisation and resource concentration. Eventually, ๐ท๐บ forces will form some kind of new defence positions. Yet, after 5days of ๐บ๐ฆ counteroffensive, ๐ท๐บ command failed to organise 2nd line defences or initiate any defensive actions.
Due to better military skill and ๐ท๐บ command getting tricked into transferring reinforcements to the South, intel and high motivation, a smaller number of ๐บ๐ฆ troops managed to defeat the ๐ท๐บ host of approx. 10k or 15 BTG between Kupyansk and Izium.
Official sources report that AFU approaches the ๐ท๐บ borders in the North and Northeast of Kharkiv region.
Kherson๐ฅ
AFU continues advancing and liberating towns in the Kherson region. Further details will be communicated in official declaration.
Some of the most elite ๐ท๐บ troops are locked on the West bank of Dnipro River and cannot be easily relocated. While there is no loss of command, the 20k contingent in Kherson region wonโt last long in absence of supply routes that are either destroyed or under ๐บ๐ฆ fire control.
Bahmut/Soledar direction
Based on reports from ๐ท๐บ sources, AFU may have penetrated deep into enemyโs defences and ๐ท๐บ forces will be forced to retreat 40-50km and establish new defence line or face encirclement.
The perception of Russia in the West
For years, powered by gas and oil money, the ๐ท๐บ propaganda machine and state was projecting for years an image of Putin as a โthough manโ and ๐ท๐บ as a โsuperpowerโ for years.
Yet, the failure of Putinโs army in ๐บ๐ฆ and the fast ๐บ๐ฆ advance is demonstrating to even the most indecisive and appeasing Western that Putinโs ๐ท๐บ is a failed, corrupt state and not a โsuperpowerโ.
Russian propaganda
While the ๐ท๐บ many telegram channels reflect on the ground panic and demoralization amongst the ๐ท๐บ troops and pro-war populace, the top-tier russian propagandists will try to control the narrative. Their response was as follows:
-Phase 1: Itโs not a big deal
-Phase 2: Where are the ๐ท๐บ reinforcements? The retaliation?
-Phase 3: Pause & silence
-Phase 4: Itโs all part of the plan
This will be their tactic explaining the future abandonment of Donets/Luhansk regions and Crimea.
This will not work even if the ๐ท๐บ manage to stop the ๐บ๐ฆ counteroffensive, as loss of occupied territories, impossibility of referendums and annexation discredits all the official ๐ท๐บ explanations for the ๐ท๐บ invasion of ๐บ๐ฆ.
Even if ๐ท๐บ succeeds in retreating and establishing new defence positions, the explanation and purpose of the ๐ท๐บ invasion of ๐บ๐ฆ remain elusive for the troops on the ground. Therefore, every soldier digging the second line ๐ท๐บ defences to try and stop the AFU advance should ask himself: โWhat is he fighting and dying for in Ukraine?โ.
Prospects
The ๐ท๐บ telegram channels are panicking and turning against the higher military and political leadership, reflecting the demoralising atmosphere in the ๐ท๐บ troops.
Any additional counteroffensive attack in 3rd direction by the AFU will lead to further demoralisation and a complete collapse of ๐ท๐บ army logistics in Ukraine. The ๐ท๐บ Army has a good chance to repeat the Napoleonic failure in the East and retreat chaotically from the occupied territories.
Potential sabotage of the ๐ท๐บ generals
The ๐ท๐บ generals are facing the potential consequences of unwise and delusional political decisions by the Kremlin and the resulting ๐บ๐ฆ army failure in ๐บ๐ฆ. Therefore, they may refrain from initiative and resort to passive sabotage โ avoiding the blame and deferring the military decisions to the political leadership. Yet, currently, there is no concrete evidence supporting this hypothesis.
The failure to establish new defence positions, concentrate, and introduce the reinforcements are signs of collapse of the front-line and loss of control. Furthermore, any attempt by russia to relocate the troops from any other part of the front-line to reinforce Kharkiv will result in a potential 3rd ๐บ๐ฆ counteroffensive in that direction.
Failure, discontent & scapegoating
The failure and futility of the ๐ท๐บ invasion of ๐บ๐ฆ and the perceived betrayal by the political leadership (Putin, Shoigu) of those who full-heartedly believed in the โRussian Springโ (e.g. Girkin) creates a dangerous environment in the ๐ท๐บ populace. Putin will try to find a scapegoat amongst the ๐ท๐บ generals and the so-called โD/LPRโ leadership. At the same time, the generals have the incentive to nominate Putin himself as the main culprit of the catastrophic military and governance failure.
Thus, there is a potential for a union between ๐ท๐บ generals trying to avoid scapegoating, soldiers with PTSD and the disgruntled ๐ท๐บ patriots. As a result, the failure of the imperialistic war of conquest may transform into a civil war in russia.
No stream on 11.09.2022.