Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
Over 30% liberated, from Balakliia to Kupyansk, 100km in 3 days. 🇷🇺 sources reporting another offensive south of Izium. Izium is almost isolated (only 1 route left). Reports of 🇷🇺 237th Guards Air Assault Regiment ceased to exist, another motorised regiment abandoned by commanders, looking for a chance to surrender. A lot of POW’s captured, thousands of shells, and dozens of armoured vehicles, including the latest models of BTR-82, and Msta-S artillery. If 🇷🇺 sources are correct about the scale of 🇺🇦 operation, then it’s going to be thousands of POWs. Izium also holds the headquarters of the 20th army, it’s a total military catastrophe. 🇺🇦 doesn’t have enough room for POWs
🇷🇺 still attempting some attacks, but they don’t have any assault forces left. 🇷🇺 spent all their assault forces in Popasna, Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk.
🇷🇺 keeps attack attempts, as they have planned, not realizing, they need to change their actions radically. 🇷🇺 is literally breaking all military rules, making all possible mistakes.
🇺🇦 slowly and methodically kicking 🇷🇺, and destroying river crossings. 🇷🇺 army requiring 4000 tons of supplies per day are receiving only 1300-1400 tons. They are in a trap, partially due to Feygin-Arestovych broadcast.
As expected, 🇷🇺 attempted to bring reserves to Kharkiv district, including part 3rd army corps, but they are badly organized, lacking knowledge, entering battle from movement in total chaos. Only 1 🇷🇺 commander attempted to follow military science, and concentrate forces, but that concentration was immediately bombed by 🇺🇦. Everything, that could have caused problems for 🇺🇦 offensive is disorganized and getting destroyed.
🇷🇺 does not have any options left: Total mobilization would be the fastest way to destroy 🇷🇺. The use of nuclear weapons would get an immediate response from the West. Strategic aviation won’t be able to find 🇺🇦 infantry in forests. 🇷🇺 can ask for peace, but 🇺🇦 might not agree.
🇷🇺 security council:
Possible 🇷🇺 military actions would be to relocate (5 days+, after which 🇺🇦 would attack in their previous location), retreat and reduce the front-line length, and close flanks. The military is likely to suggest treating Kherson and Izium groups as losses, accounting for 1/6th of the total army size. Most likely 🇷🇺 would continue using the same strategy, leading to the same results.
Call to 🇷🇺 troops:
You are getting blamed, and now you either get buried in 🇺🇦, or you can bury Putin in civil war.
Some very exciting news, unfortunately, details can not be revealed. Winter is going to look fantastic, if 🇷🇺 live that long. 🇺🇦 has nothing to worry about
🇷🇺 regional elections:
Various opposition groups are calling to boycott or write “No war” on ballots.
🇪🇺 ceased simplified visa procedure. 🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹Baltics and 🇵🇱 are not allowing most tourist visa holders through, expecting 🇹🇷 Turkey to also decrease throughput to 🇪🇺.