Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Anastasiya: @Anastasiya1451A
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
The UAF continue advancing and liberating more towns – 50km square advance in 48h. In general, there is excellent news from the counteroffensive but not all the towns can be mentioned due to ongoing operations. 🇷🇺 is trying to direct the reserves to the Kharkiv region from the 🇷🇺 territory to try to prevent 🇺🇦 advance. Nevertheless, these reserves may not be enough, as neither the counteroffensive can be stopped by a couple of BTG nor the supply lines can be easily & timely restored.
🇷🇺 telegram channels are panicking and claiming that Russian troops are preparing to defend Kupyansk. The 🇷🇺 supply lines to the city are almost completely cut.
Izium is not only cut from the supply lines from the North but is also being pressured from the South by the UAF. Moreover, near Izium there is an Army-level command centre that is in danger of encirclement.
The systematic destruction of Russian logistics and supplies in Kherson continues. The official 🇺🇦 sources do not comment on the details of the counteroffensive actions but 🇷🇺 sources and telegram channels are afraid that there is a danger of the Russian troops in Kherson being cut in two.
The big picture
The Russian situation in Kherson is bad and Kharkiv is worse and has good chances of further deterioration. The UAF command withholds from commentary on ongoing operations but 🇷🇺 sources are painting a grim picture and are extremely discontent with and critical of the 🇷🇺 military command.
🇺🇦 would really benefit from another counteroffensive action in a third direction which would likely lead to the collapse of all 🇷🇺 logistics.
Further military aid was announced. Although there are not many details, additional HIMARS ammunition and battlefield demining machines were mentioned.
US state secretary Blinken arrived in a surprise visit to Kyiv, probably to further discuss military aid to 🇺🇦. Overall, the weapons supplied to 🇺🇦 are aimed to prepare UAF for the liberation of occupied territories.
🇺🇦 introduced personal sanctions against another 200 Russian governmental figures which is a signal for their inclusion in the Western sanction lists.
Yarmak reports on the completion of about 70% of the planned anti-Russian sanctions, with the next measures being harsher and, thus, taking more time to be implemented.
Aggressive actions by the 🇷🇺, such as provocation and blackmail at the ZNPP, organisation of sham referendums on the occupied territories, etc., are precipitating further sanctions against 🇷🇺.
UK: farewell to the Queen, long live the King!
The wildly popular & much loved Queen Elizabeth II passed away. She is succeeded by Prince Charles who is known for his despise of Putin. This personal dislike coupled with the new PM’s hard anti-Russian rhetoric will likely result in increased support of 🇺🇦.
West vs Kremlin’s values
Putin’s fundamental misunderstanding of the West is that while Kremlin is all about money & corruption the collective West is about rationality & logic.
Sham referendums in occupied territories
🇷🇺 is unlikely to succeed in organising sham referendums on the occupied territories as there is an ongoing counteroffensive and active partisan movement targeting 🇷🇺 troops & collaborators.
The official number for 🇷🇺 KIA surpassed 51000. Furthermore, the number of KIAs per day increased greatly in the past few days.
Considering the so-called “D/LPR”, private mercenaries companies, the number of KIA & severity wounded total 🇷🇺 losses are about 100k.
The strategic error of the Russian invasion of 🇺🇦 is to invade a county of 40M with only 170k troops and spread in 9 directions in February and now having spread the remaining troops too thin on the perimeter of a 1300km front-line. This creates many possibilities for the UAF to infiltrate or break through the first line of 🇷🇺 defense and advance further with minimal, if any, resistance from the second-line defences.
The UAF strategy
Similar to Patton’s strategy, Zhukov’s use of motorised, rapid-advancing brigades during WWII or US tactics in Afghanistan, 🇺🇦 is using the strategy of fast and deep advance through 🇷🇺 defense lines into the enemy’s rear, aiming at:
1) cutting supply lines
2) capturing ammunition depots
3) spreading panic amongst enemies
4) capturing a large number of POW
This demoralises the enemy and creates a catastrophic situation for the Russian troops, in particular in Kharkiv.
Next stream is scheduled for tomorrow.