Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
🇷🇺 sources are terrified, talking that 🇺🇦 have captured Volokhiv Yar and cut the road to Kupiansk. Reports of Balakliia being surrounded by 🇺🇦, lost comms, images of bloody clothing saying SOBR (🇷🇺 special forces). 🇺🇦 can not confirm or deny this.
🇷🇺 sources telling that 🇺🇦 has captured Dohvenke, which is slightly elevated, providing good view. It almost looks like encirclement of whole 🇷🇺 Izium group from 🇷🇺 sources. Current 🇷🇺 Izium supply routes can be compared to Kherson – they somehow exist, but don’t satisfy needs. If 🇺🇦 reaches Kupiansk, then even those supply routes are taken away.
The only direction, where 🇷🇺 are unsuccessfully attempting to attack. 🇷🇺 command is incredibly slow, due to risk on Izium, there is no point in capturing Bakhmut.
Avdiivka, Pisky, Vuhledar:
some 🇷🇺 attempts, no success.
Traditionally 🇷🇺 attempting to build ferries, 🇺🇦 hitting ferries, command posts, troop concentrations, warehouses, and doing small advances at some areas.
Unlikely Kherson theater will be synchronized with East, both are independent.
CNN reports 🇺🇦 planning to liberate Kherson before end of 2022. Likely earlier, because with tiny supplies, existing 🇷🇺 20-25 BTGs won’t be able to resist.
🇷🇺 is very afraid to loose that direction, 60% of 🇷🇺 forces are there. If third direction would be added, 🇷🇺 wouldn’t be able to manage crisis at such scale, but unlikely 🇺🇦 would have power for that.
Today another date was mentioned – November 4th (🇷🇺 day of unity), but unlikely that will be followed. Most likely date will be shifted again and again followed by empty rhetorics. On background of current 🇷🇺 losses, referendum won’t create much benefits, only increase sanctions.
Putin’s speech in Vladivostok:
Putin called election of 🇬🇧 Liz Truss non-democratic, mentioned “no losses for 🇷🇺”, when there are over 50 000 killed. His movements suggest personality breakdown, total distancing from reality.
Essay by Zaluzhnyi and Zabrodskyi [link]:
Military is always planning for worst-case scenario, there is low risk, but it shouldn’t be discarded. It is important for upcoming Ramstein meeting tomorrow, as it highlights 🇷🇺 capability to attack in range of 2000km, while 🇺🇦 can respond 100km.
🇺🇦 General Staff confirmed Crimea hits done by missiles. 🇺🇦 needs weapons parity to respond even at larger range.
🇷🇺 energy price cap:
Putin reacted, saying that he will not allow that, unclear how.
New sanctions were paused due to vacation season in the West. Commission is working day and night, Yermak is strongly controlling and pushing for new sanctions.
Arrested pro-🇷🇺 politician called Putin a criminal.
Greetings to 🇺🇦 Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine on 30 years anniversary. Slava Ukraine