Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak

English voice-over video by Privateer Station:

Original video in Russian:

Battlefield update:

Balakliia:

🇷🇺 sources are terrified, talking that 🇺🇦 have captured Volokhiv Yar and cut the road to Kupiansk. Reports of Balakliia being surrounded by 🇺🇦, lost comms, images of bloody clothing saying SOBR (🇷🇺 special forces). 🇺🇦 can not confirm or deny this.

Izium:

🇷🇺 sources telling that 🇺🇦 has captured Dohvenke, which is slightly elevated, providing good view. It almost looks like encirclement of whole 🇷🇺 Izium group from 🇷🇺 sources. Current 🇷🇺 Izium supply routes can be compared to Kherson – they somehow exist, but don’t satisfy needs. If 🇺🇦 reaches Kupiansk, then even those supply routes are taken away.

Bakhmut:

The only direction, where 🇷🇺 are unsuccessfully attempting to attack. 🇷🇺 command is incredibly slow, due to risk on Izium, there is no point in capturing Bakhmut.

Avdiivka, Pisky, Vuhledar:

some 🇷🇺 attempts, no success.

Kherson:

Traditionally 🇷🇺 attempting to build ferries, 🇺🇦 hitting ferries, command posts, troop concentrations, warehouses, and doing small advances at some areas.
Unlikely Kherson theater will be synchronized with East, both are independent.
CNN reports 🇺🇦 planning to liberate Kherson before end of 2022. Likely earlier, because with tiny supplies, existing 🇷🇺 20-25 BTGs won’t be able to resist.

Zaporozhye-Tokmak:

🇷🇺 is very afraid to loose that direction, 60% of 🇷🇺 forces are there. If third direction would be added, 🇷🇺 wouldn’t be able to manage crisis at such scale, but unlikely 🇺🇦 would have power for that.

Referendums:

Today another date was mentioned – November 4th (🇷🇺 day of unity), but unlikely that will be followed. Most likely date will be shifted again and again followed by empty rhetorics. On background of current 🇷🇺 losses, referendum won’t create much benefits, only increase sanctions.

Putin’s speech in Vladivostok:

Putin called election of 🇬🇧 Liz Truss non-democratic, mentioned “no losses for 🇷🇺”, when there are over 50 000 killed. His movements suggest personality breakdown, total distancing from reality.

Essay by Zaluzhnyi and Zabrodskyi [link]:

Military is always planning for worst-case scenario, there is low risk, but it shouldn’t be discarded. It is important for upcoming Ramstein meeting tomorrow, as it highlights 🇷🇺 capability to attack in range of 2000km, while 🇺🇦 can respond 100km.
🇺🇦 General Staff confirmed Crimea hits done by missiles. 🇺🇦 needs weapons parity to respond even at larger range.

🇷🇺 energy price cap:

Putin reacted, saying that he will not allow that, unclear how.

Sanctions:

New sanctions were paused due to vacation season in the West. Commission is working day and night, Yermak is strongly controlling and pushing for new sanctions.

Anatoly Shariy:

Arrested pro-🇷🇺 politician called Putin a criminal.

Greetings to 🇺🇦 Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine on 30 years anniversary. Slava Ukraine