Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Anastasiya: @Anastasiya1451A
Kherson direction
The Russian hopeful declarations of the cessation of Ukrainian counteroffensive actions were premature – UAF continues attacks on Russian logistics & command headquarters in Kherson region.
De-occupation of the South & East & the Ukrainian victory will take time, resources & will have human costs, as the advancing force is bound to have some human casualties. At the infantry level it’s a complicated & bloody affair.
An intercepted Russian army communication between battalion-brigade in the South & command shows massive losses & lack of reinforcements on the ground coupled with hysteric response of the command & loss of the situational control. Another alarming sign for the Russians is that the Russian command did not count the casualties when collecting the bodies.
The first couple of major UAF counteroffensive operations & wins will be difficult. The Russian Army has its advantages: more artillery units & aviation. Yet, Ukraine has drones, HIMARS, M777 artillery, recon & intelligence units. Moreover, Ukraine is highly motivated to liberate its territories.
East direction
The attacks on Kharkiv & Bakhmut are likely to continue, as are the attempts to make tactical gains in the Donetsk region. Yet, the alleged Putin’s goal to occupy the rest of the Donetsk region [~45%] by 15/09 is unattainable. Moreover, the Russian army is incapable of taking any major city in the region.
Sham referendums in the occupied territories
Russia doesn’t give up on the preparations for the fake referendums on the occupied Ukrainian territories. These unwise actions by RF will: 1) precipitate further sanctions from the Western Allies; & 2) destroy any potential diplomatic negotiation prospects for RF.
At the same time, any results from those sham referendums will never be recognised by Ukraine & the international community as they are conducted in the occupied territories under cohesion & threat of violence.
Nuclear threats & anti-war coalition
Despite Russian statements of defending the RF state integrity with nukes, Ukraine is unmoved by these threats & the collective West together with China will not tolerate any attempts to use nuclear weapons.
After the US state visit to India, the purchases of Russian oil fell by 40%. Meanwhile China is reluctant to support Russia to avoid secondary sanctions. The EU has made stricter sanctions against some categories for the Russian government.
In addition, the anti-Russian coalition is growing, & the number of Ramstein members has surpassed the WWII anti-Hitler coalition.
Ukraine recently got $12B in military aid & the lend-lease is to enter in effect on 1/10. The US representatives have stated that the US gave Ukraine all the necessary means to de-occupy Kherson. More surprises from UAF are to come. Arestovych only asks for patience & continued support.
Russia has strategically lost the war when it failed to occupy Kyiv, pre-determining the Russian defeat which is now just a matter of time.
Russian recruitment & Ukraine’s reserve
Experiencing problems with the conventional recruitment to their army force, Russia is actively recruiting prisoners without any military experience to be used as cannon fodder. There is already a first confirmed case of RF recruiting & deploying criminals: an ex-convict sentenced for 25 years in prison for robberies & 5 murders of women in 2013 was posthumously awarded a medal for bravery in combat in Ukraine.
In Ukraine, at the very beginning of the full-scale invasion there less than 200 prisoners were recruited in total under the amnesty law. Ukraine is limiting the recruitment to the UAF regular units & the Foreign Legion only to people with military experience & expertise. Additional reserves are being trained in the UK by the British, Danish, Swedish & Canadian instructors. Infantry units are also receiving the city combat training.
These reserves will be better trained, motivated, & armed than the RF troops, & will be part of the Ukrainian force to de-occupies South & East territories.
Zaporizhzhia NPP & Russian provocation
Russia keeps insisting on not one but now 3 Ukrainian paratrooper’s groups that allegedly attempted to cross Dnipro River on boats & re-take ZNPP, Energodar, with only 60 men during the IAEA visit to the power plant. This is just another baseless statement from Russia that keeps staging ridiculous provocations to blame Ukraine for the endangerment of the currently Russian-occupied ZNPP. However, even while staging the provocation at the Energodar, the Russian army managed to lose one of their own helicopters, probably to friendly-fire.
Domestic anti-war resistance in Russia
A man attacked a police patrol with two Molotov cocktails and wounded two policemen. The increase in domestic anti-war resistance & further organisation, both political & military, of the opposition movements is necessary.
The Russian populace & the many ethnic minorities in RF are one of the most affected by the Kremlin’s aggressive policies. The intensification of domestic resistance as well as sabotage of Russian logistics & recruitment will ultimately precipitate the Kremlin’s defeat & reduce the Russian nation’s losses.
No stream on Sunday & the stream on Monday to be confirmed.
