Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Stepan: https://twitter.com/childsacrifice1

Battlefield update

Southern direction: Arestovich avoids a question about the depth of the Ukrainian advance saying instead that there are fierce battles ongoing in this theatre of operations, and the Russian army has committed its local reserves. There are 30 BTGs on this bank of the Dnipro but Ukrainian forces “continue to accomplish their objectives”. The main goal of the Ukrainian forces is to reveal and strike the Russian logistical system. As a result of intensive Russian action since the start of the offensive, the Ukrainians have seen, and hit logistical targets that were previously hidden.

The Russians are taking casualties as a result of around 10 strikes on military targets over the past 24 hours. Overall Russian casualties have increased to 300 to 350 killed every day, a large part of which of which are on the Kherson front. There are doubts to how long a group of forces pressed against the Dnipro, with a difficult logistics situation, and out in the open steppe can hold out under these circumstances.

Arestovich makes fun of the Russian claim that the offensive was personally ordered by Zelenskiy to appease the west because if he is an American puppet and follows American orders as the Russians like to claim, then why would he need to appease them? The Russians are pushing the story that Zelenskiy personally ordered this offensive. This is in order to drive a wedge between the Ukrainian military and political leaderships.

Aresovich also laughs at Shoygu going from threatening NATO to bragging about the capture of 400 square meters of land in Kherson and the 8th ‘capture’ of Pisky, “something a company commander should be ashamed to report”. Shoygu needed to make this address because of rumours that he had been removed from command.

Deoccupation of Crimea

Zelenskiy held a meeting of the Ukrainian Stavka [general staff]. The GUR made an important request: more information on Russian targets in  in Crimea and the president thanked Ukrainian citizens in Crimea for the information that they have already provided. Arestovich says he cannot say anything directly, but he seems to be implying more upcoming strikes in Crimea.

Ukrainian tactics in the south: Arestovich says that the Kherson operation will go on for a long time because the Ukrainians are trying to avoid unnecessary losses of both military and civilians. Arestovich explains that in the army one must always use the strongest capability he possess. In some areas, the Russian army has a numerical superiority in terms of artillery and aviation. However, the Ukrainians posses better reconnaissance and long range accurate weaponry. All Ukrainian military operations are structured around the combined employment of these 2 capabilities. Therefore, Ukraine will play to their strengths and organise the offensive in such a way that it primarily employs these weapons that do not need to be in direct contact with the enemy. We should not expect a “Severodonetsk” style offensive from Ukraine where 9 brigades had to be pulled off the line for refitting after the battle.

Rest of the frontline

Arestovich says that the $13.7 billion aid package would be most welcome and would change the war significantly.

The Ukrainians have lost 9,000 soldiers killed, and at the very lowest 25,000 civilians killed in Mariupol, no one knows the exact amount. there are also civilian deaths in Kharkhiv and Mariupol.

Arestovich says that despite all the attention that the Kherson front has been receiving we cannot forget about the other parts of the 1300km front in the east. Putin publicly ordered for the remainder of Donetsk oblast’ to be taken by the 15th of September. The Russians will no doubt fail at this, but there will be increase in combat in the next few days. L/DPR forces have lost 90% of their pre war soldiers and there are only a few Russian btgs on the territory of the “DPR”. The 3rd army corps may be committed to reinforce the Donetsk front. There may also be an insignificant Russian offensive on the Zaporozhye front, but this will not achieve any meaningful results.

Unsuccessful Russian attacks all along the front.

IAEA visit to the ZNPP

The IAEA will leave a permanent delegation at the ZNPP. This is good because this will significantly reduce the amount of shelling by Russians. Arestovich notes that the 2 hours they spent inspecting the station is not enough to even fully walk around the plant. Not a single Ukrainian journalist was present.

The Russian plan for the war is a drawn out conflict, a difficult autumn and winter for Ukraine by cutting off gas supplies. While staying in his positional war they will gather resources and prepare for another offensive in the spring. This is supposed to force Zelenskiy to sign “Minsk 3”. Arestovich says all this in a sarcastic tone, and reaffirms that large scale Russian mobilisation is impossible, and US aid will counteract both military and economic pressure if it arrives on time. 

Nord Stream 1 was cut off. The Europeans have nearly filled their gas reserves and will fill them before winter. By next winter, Europe will not need any gas from Russia. Arestovich wishes the western press would not be so pessimistic when it came to Putin’s actions, they are not planned or intelligent, but forced by circumstance.

The G7 set a price capon Russian oil, and will probably also do this for gas i the future. This prevents the buying of Russian oil below a certain price. the EU will also do this as the G7 countries are the leaders of Europe