Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Anastasiya: @Anastasiya1451A

English voice-over video by Privateer Station:

Original video in Russian:

Front line updates (South-Kherson)

Arestovych, recently promoted to a Colonel, won’t comment on the specifics or the geography of the UAF advance in Kherson.

The UAF started small counteroffensive in the Southern direction, broke through the first line of Russian defences in several locations and are currently trying to progress deeper into Russian-occupied territory.

Simultaneously, several bridges were hit by artillery and HIMARS (Antonovskij bridge, the Antonovskij railway bridge, Dar’jvskij and Nova Kahovka bridges). Later in the evening the pontoon ferries together with the Russian military equipment. Another two pontoon bridges were destroyed or damaged. All the Dnipro Crossings are under Ukrainian fire control.

The UAF is targeting the Russian logistics and reserves, including the troops and equipment reinforcements on the left side of the Dnipro River that the Russian command is trying to send to the Kherson region.

Arestovych also mentioned the success of Ukrainian aviation that increased its activity after the destruction of Russian Air-defence radars.

Front line updates (South-Melitopol and Crimea direction)

The Russian positions in Melitopol, as well as other directions in South and Southeast) are being hit by HIMARS. The harassment strategy by the UAF is likely to continue. In the Melitopol direction, the Russian defence is hindered by local topography and lack of natural defences.

The liberation of Crimea is still a long way off.

Front line updates (East)

The Russian troops kept trying to circumvent Bahmut and attack in the direction of Slovjansk/Kramatorsk but had no success. Small-scale clashes around small villages, e.g. Pesky, are possible.

Long-expected Russian reinforcements: 3rd Army Corps

The long promised Russian 3rd Army Corps arrived. The force of 15k was scattered through more than 1000km of front-line. Yet, as Russian logistics and river crossings are severely compromised, it is already challenging to keep the current 30 BTGs in Kherson region let alone transferring and maintaining more reinforcements to the Southern war theatre. The Russian troops already in the region got a one-way ticket.

“Referendum” in the Russian-occupied territories

The failed Russian offensive attempts combined with Ukrainian HIMARS attacks and counteroffensive actions make the prospect of so-called “referendums” in Kherson are currently impossible. Zelensky has already stressed the intent to de-occupy the South of Ukraine until the end of the year.

8th Rammstein meeting and foreign military aid to Ukraine

Yet another meeting of the Rammstein military aid group is scheduled for the 8th of September.

USA created a special command centre and have selected a general responsible for the Ukrainian military operation. More military aid will be delivered via ships rather than air.

This may reflect the change in quality of the equipment and/or an increase in size and proportions of the military aid.

Changing the tide of war

The UAF started the counteroffensive after obtaining all the necessary means for this operation.

The ATACMS are not critical but highly important to target deep into the enemy’s rear.

The future of Europe rests on the capacity of allies to supply Ukraine with additional 100-250 155mm artillery weapons and ammunition.

Russian defensive measures and the attacks on Mykolaiv

Russian command was tricked by the UAF and, due to lack of preparedness, failed to prevent Ukrainian offensive actions. Russian shelling of Kharkiv and tactical attacks on Bakhmut are planned actions by the Russian command rather than a response to the Southern offensive by the UAF. The missile attack on Mykolaiv’s bridge (with civilians on it) was unsuccessful and Russian aviation is inactive in the Kherson region. The systemic Russian response to the Ukrainian counteroffensive is already delayed.

Russian propagandists and official Ministry of Defence sources hesitated with their response to the UAF advance and resorted to lying and dismissing the Ukrainian advances to please the Russian political command. The main dilemma for the Russian command is: How to explain the advance of the UAF that they have claimed to have destroyed several times? This is a major problem for the information control domestically in RF and demotivating for the Russian soldiers.

Motivation: what are we dying for?

The myth of “the great Russia” only survives when Russia is victoriously advancing but it’s an obvious fake when the Russian troops are repeatedly hit by UAF and are forced to die to maintain the occupation of Ukrainian cities.

While the Russian command fails to motivate or force the troops, like in the Stalin’s era, the Ukrainian soldiers are highly motivated to protect their family and homeland.

The beginning of Russian defeat and the end of the Kremlin’s regime starts now – when the exhausted Russian troops realise that they are dying not for their motherland but rather for nothing in a futile attempt to execute an ill-planned, mismanaged invasion of Ukraine.

Miscellaneous

– Shoigu’s removal from direct command of the invasion of Ukraine may be the start of internal repressions and blame attribution for the failed invasion of Ukraine amongst Russian elites.

– In the South, the partisans continue eliminating Russian collaborators.

– The IAEA mission to the occupied Zaporizhzhja NPP will monitor and report on the situation in Zaporizhzhja, hopefully safeguarding the power plant from a potential Russian provocation or attack.

– Poland is insisting on a visa ban for Russians, except for the humanitarian visas. This movement is supported by Eastern European and Baltic countries and will lead to some concrete actions, aimed at pressuring the Russian populace, in the near future.

– No broadcast on 30th of August.