Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Stepan: https://twitter.com/childsacrifice1
Front line update (east):
Southeast of Chuhiv the Russians attempted to advance in the direction of Skrypai, they are not successful, this is a tactical action of local significance. This is done as a flanking manoeuvre against a possible Ukrainian offensive that could cut the M03 road. Russian attacks in the Dovhen’ke area. The Russian army cannot advance anywhere. Russians have stopped their attacks on Siversk. Attacks on Zaitseve south of Bakhmut in an attempt to surround Kodema, no success. Failed attacks on Vesele. Russian forces have taken Spartak, but parts of Pisky remain in Ukrainian hands, Vodyane and Opytne are fully under Ukrainian control. Arestovich refutes the Russian claim that they control 25% of Avdiivka. No Russian progress in Mar’inka. Attempted Russian advance in Novomykhailivka in an attempt to surround Mar’inka from the south. Ukrainian forces are advancing towards Volnovakha.
Front line update (south):
Russians are not on offensive in the south, they are only trying to improve their position.
The Russians are attempting to push Ukrainian forces back south of the M14 road in order to push Ukrainian artillery out of range of Kherson and to improve their defensive positions. Russian attack on Partyzans’ke repelled. The Russians have not managed to destroy the Ukrainian bridgehead south of Davydiv Brid.
Ukrainian aviation and artillery continue to strike targets in the south and east of Ukraine. Large ammo depot in Kherson has been destroyed. Some sources claim that up to 200 Russian paratroopers were killed in a strike on Kadiivka in Luhansk oblast.
Bridge over the Inhulets in Dar’ivka was hit, Kakhovka dam also hit and locals claim that it is 1 strike away from being fully inoperable. A single truck can cross if done carefully, but tanks can not. With every such strike, the crossing capacity of the bridges is further degraded despite Russian efforts. 9-12 hits on the Antonovskiy bridge.
Arestovich says that the Russian third army corps will be used defensively, and that the Russians lack the capability to conduct any large scale offensive actions. This army corps cannot make any significant difference, even if concentrated on a single direction, especially considering logistical difficulties that have proliferated as a result of Ukrainian strikes on supply depots in rear areas. Arestovich highlights the Russian shortage of officers that will hinder the effective usage of any new units.
Upcoming winter
Arestovich states that the current stalemate is more beneficial to the Ukrainian side. The Russian belief that Europe will freeze during the winter is a myth; the lowest level of gas reserves in Europe is 80%, and when winter comes, Arestovich guarantees that Europe will have full gas storages.
The Russian military will face logistical difficulties during the winter. The Russians in Kherson are still in their winter gear, their Summer uniforms were never delivered. Rasputitsa will also contribute to logistical difficulties. The Russians also have issues with their long range strike and reconnaissance capabilities, issues that Ukraine does not experience. The 3rd Army corps will be pointlessly annihilated. On the other hand Ukraine will continue to receive weapons, and one day Ukraine will start receiving more than Russia losses and after this Russia lines will begin to shatter. The Ukrainian government is most concerned about Ukrainians in occupied territories who are being severely mistreated.
Russian military hospitals were not prepared for the war and now there is insufficient medical treatment for injuries. Russian soldiers often do not receive compensation for wounds. Russians who sign up in Wagner receive 0 training before being shipped off while contract soldiers receive 2 weeks. Sources within the Russian MOD confirm 50k Russian military deaths. The Russian MOD is incapable of performing a full mobilization due to a severe lack of resources.
The Russians do not collect the bodies of their own soldiers, even when Ukraine offered to return Russian bodies that they possessed. 9/10 of the Russian soldiers that are killed are listed MIA in order to avoid paying compensation to the to the family.
Anti-Putin movement within Russia
Arestovich believes that the Russians may still carry out referendums in occupied territories in the future. The Russians are also indicating that they are interested in negotiations, however the Ukrainians are not.
There is internal unrest in Russia with acts of sabotage being perpetrated by a credible anti-Putin resistance movement, and this movement is growing. A member of the Russian MOD had his car burned in Moscow. The Freedom for Russia battalion in Ukraine is also growing. Ukraine equips them with top notch equipment because they respect the soldiers who had the courage to come fight for Ukraine. Dozens of Russians are currently on the front line, hundreds are in training, and around 3,500 are undergoing a screening process to join. They have units both on the front line and behind it in Russia. This is a significant force and will act as the army of a true Russian government in exile. According to Arestovich it contains veterans from several “significant” Russian units. There are also women within the ranks.
No stream tomorrow.
